Game Analysis
Buffalo (-6) vs MIAMI
Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for just 4.4 yards per pass play in his first start without rookie wide receiver Preston Williams, who leads the team in yards per route run. Buffalo’s pass defense ranks 11th by our numbers and I expect the Dolphins to avoid this strong secondary. The Bills rank 30th in rush defense but the Dolphins’ running duties have fallen to Kalen Ballage (just 2.1 ypr on 55 runs) with Mark Walton continuing to serve his 4-game suspension, so Miami is unlikely to expose the Bills’ defensive weakness.
Buffalo’s ground game ranks 5th but Miami linebacker Raekwon McMillan leads the NFL with a 13.7% run stop rate and the Dolphins’ defense is definitely more vulnerable through the air. The Dolphins are without top cornerback Xavien Howard, resulting in a favorable matchup on the outside for John Brown, who is gaining 2.02 yards per route run (15th). Cole Beasley has 43 targets in the slot (8th-most) and he should be effective on Sunday as Miami’s nickelbacks have combined to concede 1.69 yards per cover snap in the slot this season.
The Bills won the previous meeting between these teams by 10 points but that margin was deceptive as Buffalo returned an onside kick for a touchdown at the end of the game. Josh Allen probably had his best game of the year against Miami in week 7 and the Bills will need him to perform well again in this game. Our model makes Buffalo a 5.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 41.8 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.9
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.2%
42.2%
-
Sack Rate
7.2%
7.7%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.2%
12.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.7%
30.7%
-
NYPP
6.0
5.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.3
25.6
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
18.5%
26.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.6%
48.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.2%
54.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
63.2
61.6
-
Early Down Succ
51.9%
47.5%
-
Succ Rate
47.5%
44.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.6%
40.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
29.2
-
Run Ratio
43.3%
41.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.5
28.0
-
Game Control
0.5
-0.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.1
32.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.0%
52.1%
-
Sack Rate
10.0%
4.3%
-
Int Rate
4.1%
1.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.3%
26.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.6%
49.3%
-
NYPP
5.1
7.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.0
31.4
-
RB YPR
2.8
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
30.4%
18.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.9%
50.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
18.0%
39.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.0
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
60.1
64.2
-
Early Down Succ
42.2%
53.7%
-
Succ Rate
40.4%
51.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
27.5%
45.9%
-
Yards Per Play
4.3
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.4
30.3
-
Run Ratio
34.7%
48.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.5
30.5
-
Game Control
-6.8
6.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NYJ |
17 – 16 W |
-7.1 |
55.3% / 42.2% |
2.6% / 8.9% |
5.4% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 3.4 |
48.0% / 52.4% |
20.0% / 33.3% |
5.1 / 3.2 |
63 / 66 |
54.9% / 46.8% |
52.4% / 45.5% |
50.0% / 9.9% |
5.9 / 3.4 |
3.2% / 1.5% |
39.7% / 31.8% |
22.9 / 28.4 |
2 |
@NYG |
28 – 14 W |
8.9 |
42.4% / 45.7% |
9.1% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 4.4% |
7.2 / 5.2 |
58.8% / 70.0% |
17.6% / 5.0% |
4.4 / 6.5 |
67 / 66 |
55.8% / 59.6% |
50.7% / 53.0% |
32.7% / 38.9% |
5.8 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.7% / 30.3% |
24.8 / 28.5 |
3 |
CIN |
21 – 17 W |
6.7 |
45.9% / 44.7% |
2.7% / 5.3% |
2.8% / 5.6% |
6.5 / 6.3 |
55.6% / 36.8% |
19.4% / 31.6% |
4.9 / 3.5 |
73 / 57 |
55.2% / 46.7% |
50.7% / 42.1% |
40.6% / 52.9% |
5.7 / 5.4 |
1.4% / 3.5% |
49.3% / 33.3% |
29.6 / 30.5 |
4 |
NE |
10 – 16 L |
-7.9 |
36.7% / 20.5% |
10.2% / 0.0% |
9.1% / 2.6% |
4.9 / 3.8 |
50.0% / 47.8% |
13.6% / 17.4% |
6.1 / 3.2 |
71 / 62 |
47.3% / 33.3% |
40.8% / 30.6% |
46.9% / 32.1% |
5.3 / 3.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.0% / 37.1% |
29.9 / 27.1 |
5 |
@TEN |
14 – 7 W |
2.4 |
47.2% / 40.7% |
11.1% / 18.5% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 5.6 |
55.6% / 40.7% |
14.8% / 25.9% |
4.0 / 3.8 |
63 / 54 |
58.7% / 45.0% |
50.8% / 40.7% |
34.5% / 52.0% |
5.0 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.9% / 50.0% |
30.0 / 23.3 |
7 |
MIA |
31 – 21 W |
0.6 |
50.0% / 55.6% |
7.1% / 2.8% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
6.7 / 7.6 |
52.2% / 50.0% |
13.0% / 33.3% |
5.1 / 3.6 |
51 / 66 |
55.0% / 52.0% |
51.0% / 53.0% |
61.3% / 45.9% |
6.0 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
45.1% / 45.5% |
30.2 / 25.5 |
8 |
PHI |
13 – 31 L |
-5.2 |
31.6% / 48.1% |
10.5% / 11.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.1 / 5.7 |
50.0% / 48.8% |
35.0% / 29.3% |
4.9 / 5.3 |
58 / 68 |
39.0% / 50.0% |
37.9% / 48.5% |
44.3% / 57.7% |
4.4 / 5.5 |
1.7% / 1.5% |
34.5% / 60.3% |
29.4 / 36.4 |
9 |
WAS |
24 – 9 W |
8.5 |
45.5% / 34.6% |
9.1% / 15.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 4.5 |
53.8% / 34.8% |
17.9% / 30.4% |
3.1 / 5.5 |
61 / 49 |
54.5% / 40.5% |
50.8% / 34.7% |
48.9% / 42.8% |
4.4 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
63.9% / 46.9% |
34.9 / 27.3 |
10 |
@CLE |
16 – 19 L |
-2.5 |
42.9% / 47.5% |
2.4% / 5.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.2 / 5.5 |
40.0% / 53.8% |
15.0% / 30.8% |
4.2 / 5.7 |
62 / 66 |
46.8% / 53.8% |
41.9% / 50.0% |
42.4% / 32.1% |
5.5 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.3% / 39.4% |
24.5 / 24.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
BAL |
10 – 59 L |
-32.5 |
37.1% / 74.1% |
8.6% / 3.7% |
6.3% / 0.0% |
5.1 / 14.0 |
33.3% / 58.7% |
50.0% / 13.0% |
1.8 / 5.8 |
47 / 73 |
37.8% / 65.5% |
36.2% / 64.4% |
48.5% / 66.7% |
4.3 / 8.8 |
2.1% / 0.0% |
25.5% / 63.0% |
22.6 / 31.6 |
2 |
NE |
0 – 43 L |
-16.0 |
28.3% / 60.0% |
15.2% / 6.7% |
10.3% / 0.0% |
3.1 / 8.5 |
33.3% / 60.0% |
33.3% / 14.3% |
2.8 / 3.6 |
61 / 65 |
33.3% / 62.3% |
29.5% / 60.0% |
13.0% / 28.6% |
3.0 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
24.6% / 53.8% |
27.9 / 33.5 |
3 |
@DAL |
6 – 31 L |
-11.1 |
40.9% / 48.5% |
6.8% / 3.0% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
4.8 / 7.3 |
37.5% / 67.6% |
29.2% / 2.9% |
3.0 / 6.9 |
68 / 67 |
46.0% / 60.7% |
39.7% / 58.2% |
31.4% / 56.9% |
4.2 / 7.1 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
35.3% / 50.7% |
28.7 / 26.1 |
4 |
LAC |
10 – 30 L |
-6.4 |
48.3% / 71.9% |
17.2% / 3.1% |
4.2% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 9.7 |
55.6% / 39.4% |
22.2% / 21.2% |
4.0 / 2.4 |
47 / 65 |
52.8% / 57.1% |
51.1% / 55.4% |
34.3% / 23.1% |
5.0 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.3% / 50.8% |
25.0 / 31.8 |
6 |
WAS |
16 – 17 L |
-6.1 |
33.3% / 40.0% |
10.4% / 0.0% |
4.7% / 0.0% |
3.9 / 6.6 |
52.4% / 45.5% |
19.0% / 18.2% |
4.0 / 4.4 |
69 / 58 |
42.3% / 50.0% |
39.1% / 43.1% |
28.0% / 42.8% |
3.9 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.4% / 56.9% |
28.3 / 27.3 |
7 |
@BUF |
21 – 31 L |
-0.6 |
55.6% / 50.0% |
2.8% / 7.1% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
7.6 / 6.7 |
50.0% / 52.2% |
33.3% / 13.0% |
3.6 / 5.1 |
66 / 51 |
52.0% / 55.0% |
53.0% / 51.0% |
45.9% / 61.3% |
5.8 / 6.0 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
45.5% / 45.1% |
25.5 / 30.2 |
8 |
@PIT |
14 – 27 L |
3.2 |
39.5% / 36.8% |
10.5% / 5.3% |
5.9% / 2.8% |
4.5 / 6.2 |
36.8% / 48.3% |
10.5% / 24.1% |
3.2 / 5.4 |
57 / 67 |
41.3% / 41.5% |
38.6% / 41.8% |
0.0% / 51.8% |
4.0 / 5.9 |
3.5% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 43.3% |
33.5 / 31.3 |
9 |
NYJ |
26 – 18 W |
4.5 |
50.0% / 50.0% |
10.0% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
6.7 / 5.7 |
33.3% / 42.9% |
37.5% / 23.8% |
2.1 / 4.0 |
64 / 63 |
44.0% / 50.0% |
43.8% / 47.6% |
23.4% / 26.8% |
4.9 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.5% / 33.3% |
31.2 / 30.7 |
10 |
@IND |
16 – 12 W |
4.1 |
36.1% / 37.5% |
8.3% / 2.5% |
3.0% / 7.7% |
4.4 / 4.8 |
26.9% / 41.4% |
38.5% / 31.0% |
2.7 / 3.8 |
62 / 69 |
30.2% / 41.5% |
32.3% / 39.1% |
22.7% / 55.0% |
3.7 / 4.3 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
41.9% / 42.0% |
33.4 / 32.5 |