Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – TENNESSEE (+4) over Philadelphia

Carson Wentz didn’t look great in his season debut and there’s a chance he was rushed back early given how poorly Foles played in the first two weeks. The Eagles gained just 4.9 yards per play against the Colts and their offense now ranks 18th in our season-to-date numbers, although I expect that unit to improve as Wentz gets healthier. Alshon Jeffery could return this week, but his injury has forced Philadelphia’s offense to look elsewhere for production and they lead the league with 45% of their targets going to tight ends. However, the Titans have excellent safeties that have allowed just 4.9 yards per target to opposing tight ends and the Eagles offense may need to rely on the ground game until Wentz regains his form.

Philadelphia has found consistent success on outside right runs behind All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson averaging 6.2 yards per rush with none of the 17 carries longer than 16 yards. Tennessee’s Derrick Morgan was second-worst in run stop percentage out of 59 qualifying edge defenders last season and I expect the Eagles to continue pounding the ball to the right side on Sunday with good success.

Blaine Gabbert started at quarterback for the Titans last week but he suffered a concussion and Marcus Mariota was thrown into the game despite saying he can’t fully feel the football in his throwing hand. Mariota threw for 4.8 yards per pass play against a stingy Jaguars defense but did add 51 rushing yards and Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz said Mariota is probably the fastest quarterback in the NFL right now.

The Titans have seen rain, high winds, and played two divisional games (typically lower totals due to familiarity) thus far, resulting in the worst conditions for scoring of any team, and their offense should improve going forward as Mariota get healthier. We would make the true total 43.0 points and would have a play on the over if both quarterbacks were 100% healthy, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.

The model only favors Philadelphia by 2.6 points and the Eagles apply to an 11-42-2 ATS road favorite situation, so I’ll lean with Tennessee plus the points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Eagles
Titans

PHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 43.0 41.7
Succ Pass Plays 40.7% 43.8%
Sack Rate 7.8% 6.3%
Int Rate 1.9% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 17.9% 21.6%
Big Pass Yards 20.9% 46.2%
NYPP 5.0 6.4

Rush

Rush Plays 29.0 18.3
RB YPR 4.2 3.0
Stuff Rate 23.6% 30.8%
Succ Rush Plays 55.9% 36.0%
Big Rush Yards 41.5% 37.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.1 3.7

Game

All Snaps 72.0 60.0
Early Down Succ 48.0% 44.3%
Succ Rate 46.9% 40.1%
Big Yards Rate 30.3% 47.2%
Yards Per Play 4.7 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 1.8% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.0 23.9
Run Ratio 40.3% 30.5%
Starting Field Pos 23.1 32.8
Game Control -3.8 3.8

Points 19.7 18.3

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ATL	18 – 12 W	-0.9	32.4% / 31.9%	5.4% / 8.5%	2.9% / 2.3%	3.2 / 4.8	53.6% / 44.4%	21.4% / 27.8%	4.1 / 4.1	65 / 65	40.4% / 38.8%	41.5% / 35.4%	20.6% / 49.5%	3.6 / 4.6	1.5% / 0.0%	43.1% / 27.7%	22.2 / 35.2
2	@TB	21 – 27 L	-11.1	42.0% / 60.0%	6.0% / 5.7%	0.0% / 3.0%	6.4 / 11.2	54.2% / 25.0%	20.8% / 41.7%	3.8 / 1.8	74 / 59	48.1% / 48.9%	45.9% / 45.8%	36.2% / 45.3%	5.6 / 7.4	2.7% / 1.7%	32.4% / 40.7%	25.5 / 27.2
3	IND	20 – 16 W	0.6	47.6% / 39.5%	11.9% / 4.7%	2.7% / 0.0%	5.4 / 3.3	60.0% / 38.5%	28.6% / 23.1%	4.3 / 5.2	77 / 56	55.6% / 45.2%	53.2% / 39.3%	34.0% / 46.9%	4.9 / 3.7	1.3% / 0.0%	45.5% / 23.2%	21.6 / 36.1

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIA	17 – 27 L	-3.5	36.8% / 55.2%	0.0% / 3.4%	7.9% / 7.1%	5.8 / 7.7	44.8% / 53.3%	17.2% / 26.7%	4.0 / 4.1	67 / 59	41.2% / 66.7%	40.3% / 54.2%	17.0% / 44.3%	5.0 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 50.8%	29.2 / 35.5
2	HOU	20 – 17 W	6.4	39.1% / 48.6%	4.3% / 11.4%	0.0% / 3.2%	8.0 / 8.3	35.3% / 42.3%	14.7% / 11.5%	2.9 / 5.7	57 / 61	35.0% / 46.0%	36.8% / 45.9%	27.9% / 53.1%	5.0 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	59.6% / 42.6%	23.2 / 26.6
3	@JAC	9 – 6 W	1.5	45.8% / 37.8%	12.5% / 8.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.5 / 3.9	42.9% / 52.6%	25.7% / 15.8%	4.3 / 4.6	59 / 56	47.7% / 46.3%	44.1% / 42.9%	34.3% / 10.3%	3.9 / 4.1	0.0% / 1.8%	59.3% / 33.9%	28.2 / 23.3

Philadelphia Eagles @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Sep 30

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis