Washington Redskins @ Tennessee Titans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Washington (+10) over TENNESSEE

Lean – Over (37.5)

The Titans beat the Giants last week and now need to take care of business on Saturday before a likely massive play-in game versus the division-rival Colts in week 17. Derrick Henry has 408 yards and 6 touchdowns in his last two games and I expect him to continue being the focal point of the offense against a Redskins rush defense ranked 24th. After battling the rain in East Rutherford, Marcus Mariota should get back on track at home and I believe Tennessee’s offense is slightly underrated due to his early-season injury.

The Titans lost their best cornerback Logan Ryan for the season to a broken fibula. Ryan was allowing just 0.84 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th), but the Redskins don’t really have an inside receiver to take advantage. Pro Bowl interior defender Jurrell Casey is having another solid season, ranking 15th in pass rushing efficiency, and has a favorable matchup against Washington’s banged-up backup guards. Casey picked up a knee injury last week and may not be 100%.

Josh Johnson has been superb in limited action thus far throwing for 7.5 yards per pass play and adding 4.4 points on the ground according to our metrics. However, Johnson is a high variance quarterback as he’s been with the team less than a month and he could easily struggle versus the 5th-rated Titans defense.

Our model favors Tennessee by 8.7 with a predicted total of 40.5 points and I’m leaning with the Redskins in this game on the basis of an 84-29-5 ATS late season contrary angle that plays on bad teams against winning teams. I’ll also lean over the total.

Team Stats
Game Log

Redskins
Titans

WAS

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 31.9 34.3
Succ Pass Plays 83.3% 92.6%
Sack Rate 14.3% 15.0%
Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 18.4% 14.9%
Big Pass Yards 37.7% 40.4%
NYPP 11.5 11.4

Rush

Rush Plays 26.9 26.4
RB YPR 3.9 4.2
Stuff Rate 26.8% 18.1%
Succ Rush Plays 45.8% 46.0%
Big Rush Yards 50.4% 39.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.5

Game

All Snaps 58.7 60.6
Early Down Succ 46.0% 47.1%
Succ Rate 46.9% 50.7%
Big Yards Rate 42.7% 44.5%
Yards Per Play 5.5 6.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.4 31.7
Run Ratio 46.5% 46.0%
Starting Field Pos 29.1 26.4
Game Control -1.8 1.8

Points 18.9 22.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@ARI	24 – 6 W	13.7	600.0% / 700.0%	100.0% / 100.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	82.3 / 72.5	46.5% / 56.3%	25.6% / 12.5%	4.3 / 4.3	46 / 18	50.0% / 53.7%	82.6% / 127.8%	47.0% / 35.0%	9.3 / 11.9	2.2% / 5.6%	93.5% / 88.9%	18.0 / 29.3
2	IND	9 – 21 L	-8.3	48.9% / 43.8%	6.4% / 3.1%	0.0% / 6.5%	5.7 / 5.5	40.9% / 40.0%	40.9% / 13.3%	3.0 / 3.5	69 / 62	50.0% / 40.5%	46.4% / 41.9%	28.1% / 25.4%	4.8 / 4.6	1.4% / 0.0%	31.9% / 48.4%	29.3 / 24.7
3	GB	31 – 17 W	12.0	50.0% / 34.7%	0.0% / 8.2%	5.0% / 0.0%	11.0 / 4.9	32.4% / 64.7%	10.8% / 11.8%	4.5 / 5.9	57 / 66	40.5% / 42.9%	38.6% / 42.4%	60.1% / 35.9%	6.8 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.5%	64.9% / 25.8%	30.8 / 26.4
5	@NO	19 – 43 L	-15.4	69.2% / 71.4%	11.5% / 7.1%	4.3% / 0.0%	9.4 / 12.5	50.0% / 36.1%	27.8% / 5.6%	2.2 / 2.8	44 / 64	48.8% / 54.9%	61.4% / 51.6%	51.2% / 54.3%	6.4 / 7.0	2.3% / 1.6%	40.9% / 56.3%	33.4 / 36.2
6	CAR	23 – 17 W	9.4	35.9% / 53.7%	7.7% / 2.4%	0.0% / 2.5%	4.0 / 6.6	51.7% / 47.4%	10.3% / 26.3%	4.6 / 4.3	68 / 60	43.8% / 58.3%	42.6% / 51.7%	36.3% / 25.9%	4.3 / 5.9	0.0% / 3.3%	42.6% / 31.7%	33.7 / 20.3
7	DAL	20 – 17 W	4.7	42.3% / 41.0%	3.8% / 10.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 6.4	40.6% / 54.5%	40.6% / 27.3%	4.1 / 3.3	58 / 61	46.7% / 48.9%	41.4% / 45.9%	46.6% / 45.8%	5.3 / 5.3	0.0% / 3.3%	55.2% / 36.1%	33.4 / 21.4
8	@NYG	20 – 13 W	6.0	46.9% / 32.1%	0.0% / 13.2%	0.0% / 4.3%	5.6 / 5.0	50.0% / 35.7%	23.5% / 42.9%	5.4 / 2.6	66 / 67	53.1% / 34.7%	48.5% / 32.8%	42.1% / 46.9%	5.5 / 4.5	1.5% / 0.0%	51.5% / 20.9%	26.4 / 27.2
9	ATL	14 – 38 L	-12.7	44.9% / 45.0%	6.1% / 5.0%	2.2% / 2.6%	5.9 / 8.4	53.3% / 62.5%	33.3% / 0.0%	5.3 / 6.4	64 / 64	46.9% / 45.1%	46.9% / 51.6%	36.6% / 54.4%	5.7 / 7.7	0.0% / 0.0%	23.4% / 37.5%	23.8 / 22.7
10	@TB	16 – 3 W	4.7	40.0% / 62.8%	10.0% / 4.7%	0.0% / 4.9%	5.7 / 9.3	56.0% / 45.8%	32.0% / 25.0%	4.6 / 4.3	55 / 67	50.0% / 56.1%	47.3% / 56.7%	39.9% / 36.5%	5.2 / 7.5	0.0% / 3.0%	45.5% / 35.8%	29.7 / 19.0
11	HOU	21 – 23 L	-4.8	35.7% / 51.9%	11.9% / 11.1%	5.4% / 8.3%	3.7 / 6.7	58.6% / 40.6%	13.8% / 18.8%	4.3 / 4.4	71 / 59	45.5% / 50.0%	45.1% / 45.8%	19.4% / 44.2%	3.9 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.7%	40.8% / 54.2%	34.4 / 31.8
12	@DAL	23 – 31 L	-6.3	51.2% / 45.7%	7.3% / 11.4%	7.9% / 0.0%	6.1 / 7.4	42.9% / 41.7%	14.3% / 16.7%	3.9 / 4.1	62 / 71	53.1% / 48.1%	48.4% / 43.7%	34.9% / 50.5%	5.4 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	33.9% / 50.7%	32.1 / 26.9
13	@PHI	13 – 28 L	-4.3	25.0% / 59.0%	10.7% / 0.0%	4.0% / 2.6%	4.7 / 7.8	35.7% / 32.4%	42.9% / 18.9%	7.4 / 3.6	42 / 76	31.3% / 50.9%	28.6% / 46.1%	60.4% / 41.1%	5.6 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	33.3% / 48.7%	23.0 / 30.0
14	NYG	16 – 40 L	-22.0	37.1% / 37.9%	14.3% / 6.9%	10.0% / 3.7%	5.8 / 6.0	45.5% / 44.4%	27.3% / 11.1%	3.8 / 6.3	57 / 65	46.7% / 46.9%	40.4% / 41.5%	65.3% / 59.3%	5.1 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	38.6% / 55.4%	27.6 / 29.6
15	@JAC	16 – 13 W	-1.6	39.3% / 17.4%	10.7% / 26.1%	0.0% / 5.9%	4.9 / 0.9	37.1% / 42.3%	31.4% / 23.1%	3.1 / 6.6	63 / 49	37.8% / 27.8%	38.1% / 30.6%	30.1% / 67.7%	3.9 / 3.9	0.0% / 2.0%	55.6% / 53.1%	31.5 / 23.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIA	17 – 27 L	-3.5	36.8% / 55.2%	0.0% / 3.4%	7.9% / 7.1%	5.8 / 7.7	44.8% / 53.3%	17.2% / 26.7%	4.0 / 4.1	67 / 59	41.2% / 66.7%	40.3% / 54.2%	17.0% / 44.3%	5.0 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 50.8%	29.2 / 35.5
2	HOU	20 – 17 W	6.4	39.1% / 48.6%	4.3% / 11.4%	0.0% / 3.2%	8.0 / 8.3	35.3% / 42.3%	14.7% / 11.5%	2.9 / 5.7	57 / 61	35.0% / 46.0%	36.8% / 45.9%	27.9% / 53.1%	5.0 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	59.6% / 42.6%	23.2 / 26.6
3	@JAC	9 – 6 W	1.5	45.8% / 37.8%	12.5% / 8.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.5 / 3.9	42.9% / 52.6%	25.7% / 15.8%	4.3 / 4.6	59 / 56	47.7% / 46.3%	44.1% / 42.9%	34.3% / 10.3%	3.9 / 4.1	0.0% / 1.8%	59.3% / 33.9%	28.2 / 23.3
4	PHI	26 – 23 W	-2.6	47.8% / 46.3%	6.5% / 7.4%	2.3% / 0.0%	7.1 / 5.8	39.1% / 36.4%	34.8% / 13.6%	3.1 / 5.3	69 / 76	47.9% / 45.9%	44.9% / 43.4%	38.9% / 41.0%	5.8 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.3%	33.3% / 28.9%	24.4 / 28.0
5	@BUF	12 – 13 L	-2.6	81.3% / 63.6%	12.5% / 9.1%	7.1% / 10.0%	7.6 / 7.2	56.0% / 46.5%	16.0% / 20.9%	4.0 / 3.3	41 / 54	51.2% / 43.8%	65.9% / 50.0%	29.0% / 18.8%	5.4 / 4.1	4.9% / 0.0%	61.0% / 79.6%	30.2 / 34.8
6	BAL	0 – 21 L	-13.2	26.9% / 45.9%	42.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.7%	2.0 / 6.4	28.6% / 44.4%	35.7% / 27.8%	3.9 / 3.4	40 / 73	33.3% / 37.7%	27.5% / 45.2%	42.5% / 44.5%	2.7 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	35.0% / 49.3%	21.9 / 29.9
7	@LAC	19 – 20 L	-4.9	58.8% / 57.1%	5.9% / 7.1%	3.1% / 0.0%	6.6 / 10.6	48.5% / 35.3%	18.2% / 17.6%	5.0 / 2.8	67 / 45	51.0% / 52.9%	53.7% / 48.9%	33.1% / 55.4%	5.8 / 7.7	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 37.8%	27.5 / 29.0
9	@DAL	28 – 14 W	2.1	51.5% / 45.9%	12.1% / 13.5%	0.0% / 3.1%	6.5 / 6.1	47.5% / 57.9%	15.0% / 26.3%	3.2 / 3.8	73 / 56	47.2% / 52.3%	49.3% / 50.0%	43.6% / 43.1%	4.7 / 5.3	2.7% / 1.8%	54.8% / 33.9%	28.6 / 33.8
10	NE	34 – 10 W	13.0	55.6% / 40.0%	7.4% / 6.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.7 / 5.4	47.2% / 31.6%	25.0% / 36.8%	4.2 / 2.1	63 / 64	52.9% / 41.3%	50.8% / 37.5%	67.5% / 44.4%	6.1 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	57.1% / 29.7%	34.2 / 24.3
11	@IND	10 – 38 L	-18.5	47.1% / 71.9%	14.7% / 0.0%	6.9% / 0.0%	5.2 / 9.2	36.0% / 51.6%	32.0% / 16.1%	3.5 / 3.4	59 / 63	42.2% / 70.8%	42.4% / 61.9%	33.8% / 26.5%	4.5 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	42.4% / 49.2%	21.1 / 29.7
12	@HOU	17 – 34 L	-8.6	48.3% / 66.7%	20.7% / 14.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.0 / 6.7	34.8% / 45.7%	26.1% / 8.6%	4.6 / 8.1	52 / 62	46.2% / 60.4%	42.3% / 54.8%	55.6% / 57.9%	7.0 / 7.5	1.9% / 0.0%	44.2% / 56.5%	24.8 / 25.7
13	NYJ	26 – 22 W	-8.4	36.8% / 40.6%	7.9% / 6.3%	2.9% / 3.3%	7.2 / 3.9	34.8% / 42.4%	17.4% / 33.3%	5.7 / 4.7	61 / 65	43.8% / 46.0%	36.1% / 41.5%	69.6% / 28.9%	6.6 / 4.3	0.0% / 0.0%	37.7% / 50.8%	25.3 / 32.3
14	JAC	30 – 9 W	13.6	56.0% / 42.6%	4.0% / 8.5%	4.2% / 0.0%	6.5 / 4.1	44.1% / 57.1%	26.5% / 19.0%	7.8 / 2.9	59 / 68	51.2% / 57.1%	49.2% / 47.1%	60.7% / 34.8%	7.3 / 3.8	0.0% / 1.5%	57.6% / 30.9%	33.5 / 24.3
15	@NYG	17 – 0 W	7.9	27.3% / 29.8%	4.5% / 6.4%	0.0% / 2.3%	3.9 / 4.5	58.7% / 25.0%	17.4% / 31.3%	4.7 / 2.9	68 / 63	54.0% / 29.5%	48.5% / 28.6%	39.1% / 53.1%	4.5 / 4.1	0.0% / 1.6%	67.6% / 25.4%	29.7 / 19.6

Washington Redskins @

Tennessee Titans

Sat, Dec 22

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis