Game Analysis
PHILADELPHIA (-10) vs WashingtonÂ
Case Keenum will be the opening week starter at quarterback for the Redskins, but they probably should go with the Dwayne Haskins. Perhaps the only reason they aren’t going to their rookie quarterback right away is the uncertainty across the offensive line after observing how that affected Josh Rosen’s development a season ago. This offensive line is one of the worst in the league with Trent Williams holding out and I expect the Eagles to take full advantage. Last year, Philadelphia’s defense generated pressure from the edge with Brandon Graham, Michael Bennett, and Chris Long all surpassing 50 pressures. This season, Graham is the only one remaining on the outside and the Eagles will generate pressure on the inside with addition Malik Jackson, who was top 10 in pressures from the interior, joining Fletcher Cox, who is coming off a season with 95 pressures recorded (2nd among interior linemen).
The battle in the trenches will also be something to watch for on the other side of the ball. Ryan Kerrigan ranked 7th in pass rushing efficiency on the edge in 2018 and he is joined by solid young players on the interior in Jonathan Allen, Matthew Ioannidis, and Da’Ron Payne. The Eagles have had a top 10 offensive line all three years with Doug Peterson, but the Redskins must find a way to penetrate that wall if they expect to slow down Carson Wentz. Landon Collins is a great run defender but he’s a liability in coverage and we will likely see a heavy dose of Zach Ertz coming off a season where he led all tight ends with 154 targets.
Our preseason ratings have Washington’s offense ranked last in the league and it is unlikely that they’ll surpass 20 points versus a top 10 rated Eagles defense. Our model predicts the Redskins to score 17.1 to Philadelphia’s 27.2 but keep in mind that teams that had a worse record than their opponents the previous season are 163-111-12 ATS in week 1 the last 20 years.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.6
36.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.9%
45.6%
-
Sack Rate
7.8%
8.3%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.7%
14.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.3%
38.6%
-
NYPP
5.6
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.9
25.8
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
26.4%
19.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.4%
48.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.4%
38.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
60.4
62.3
-
Early Down Succ
46.5%
48.0%
-
Succ Rate
43.9%
46.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.2%
42.5%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.3
29.2
-
Run Ratio
42.5%
41.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.3
26.7
-
Game Control
-2.1
2.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.5
41.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.0%
46.8%
-
Sack Rate
5.7%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.1%
20.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.9%
42.7%
-
NYPP
6.6
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.3
21.2
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
24.4%
28.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.8%
45.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.7%
49.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.7
Game
-
All Snaps
63.8
63.1
-
Early Down Succ
49.5%
48.6%
-
Succ Rate
47.3%
45.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.7%
46.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.0
27.4
-
Run Ratio
37.7%
33.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.9
27.1
-
Game Control
-0.0
0.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@ARI |
24 – 6 W |
13.7 |
54.5% / 38.9% |
9.1% / 5.6% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
7.5 / 4.0 |
47.6% / 60.0% |
26.2% / 13.3% |
4.3 / 4.5 |
75 / 51 |
50.0% / 53.7% |
50.7% / 45.1% |
47.1% / 35.2% |
5.7 / 4.2 |
1.3% / 2.0% |
56.0% / 29.4% |
18.0 / 29.3 |
2 |
IND |
9 – 21 L |
-8.3 |
46.9% / 43.8% |
6.1% / 3.1% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
5.5 / 5.5 |
40.9% / 42.9% |
40.9% / 14.3% |
3.0 / 3.7 |
71 / 60 |
50.0% / 40.5% |
45.1% / 43.3% |
28.1% / 25.6% |
4.7 / 4.7 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
31.0% / 46.7% |
29.3 / 24.7 |
3 |
GB |
31 – 17 W |
12.0 |
50.0% / 34.7% |
0.0% / 8.2% |
5.0% / 0.0% |
11.0 / 4.9 |
34.3% / 64.7% |
11.4% / 11.8% |
4.7 / 5.9 |
55 / 66 |
40.5% / 42.9% |
40.0% / 42.4% |
60.4% / 35.9% |
7.0 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
63.6% / 25.8% |
30.8 / 26.4 |
5 |
@NO |
19 – 43 L |
-15.4 |
42.9% / 64.5% |
7.1% / 6.5% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 11.3 |
50.0% / 40.6% |
27.8% / 6.3% |
2.2 / 3.1 |
60 / 63 |
48.8% / 54.9% |
45.0% / 52.4% |
51.2% / 54.8% |
4.7 / 7.1 |
1.7% / 1.6% |
30.0% / 50.8% |
33.4 / 36.2 |
6 |
CAR |
23 – 17 W |
9.4 |
35.9% / 53.7% |
7.7% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
4.0 / 6.6 |
53.6% / 50.0% |
10.7% / 27.8% |
4.7 / 4.5 |
67 / 59 |
43.8% / 58.3% |
43.3% / 52.5% |
36.5% / 26.0% |
4.3 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
41.8% / 30.5% |
33.7 / 20.3 |
7 |
DAL |
20 – 17 W |
4.7 |
42.3% / 41.0% |
3.8% / 10.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 6.4 |
40.6% / 54.5% |
40.6% / 27.3% |
4.1 / 3.3 |
58 / 61 |
46.7% / 48.9% |
41.4% / 45.9% |
46.6% / 45.8% |
5.3 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
55.2% / 36.1% |
33.4 / 21.4 |
8 |
@NYG |
20 – 13 W |
6.0 |
46.9% / 31.5% |
0.0% / 13.0% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
5.6 / 4.9 |
51.5% / 35.7% |
24.2% / 42.9% |
5.5 / 2.6 |
65 / 68 |
53.1% / 34.7% |
49.2% / 32.4% |
42.2% / 46.9% |
5.5 / 4.5 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
50.8% / 20.6% |
26.4 / 27.2 |
9 |
ATL |
14 – 38 L |
-12.7 |
44.9% / 45.0% |
6.1% / 5.0% |
2.2% / 2.6% |
5.9 / 8.4 |
53.3% / 62.5% |
33.3% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 6.4 |
64 / 64 |
46.9% / 45.1% |
46.9% / 51.6% |
36.6% / 54.4% |
5.7 / 7.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
23.4% / 37.5% |
23.8 / 22.7 |
10 |
@TB |
16 – 3 W |
4.7 |
40.0% / 62.8% |
10.0% / 4.7% |
0.0% / 4.9% |
5.7 / 9.3 |
56.0% / 45.8% |
32.0% / 25.0% |
4.6 / 4.3 |
55 / 67 |
50.0% / 56.1% |
47.3% / 56.7% |
39.9% / 36.5% |
5.2 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
45.5% / 35.8% |
29.7 / 19.0 |
11 |
HOU |
21 – 23 L |
-4.8 |
34.1% / 51.9% |
11.4% / 11.1% |
5.1% / 8.3% |
3.5 / 6.7 |
58.6% / 41.9% |
13.8% / 19.4% |
4.3 / 4.5 |
73 / 58 |
45.5% / 50.0% |
43.8% / 46.6% |
19.4% / 44.4% |
3.8 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
39.7% / 53.4% |
34.4 / 31.8 |
12 |
@DAL |
23 – 31 L |
-6.3 |
51.2% / 45.7% |
7.3% / 11.4% |
7.9% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 7.4 |
45.0% / 44.1% |
15.0% / 17.6% |
4.0 / 4.3 |
61 / 69 |
53.1% / 48.1% |
49.2% / 44.9% |
35.0% / 50.7% |
5.4 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.8% / 49.3% |
32.1 / 26.9 |
13 |
@PHI |
13 – 28 L |
-4.3 |
25.0% / 59.0% |
10.7% / 0.0% |
4.0% / 2.6% |
4.7 / 7.8 |
35.7% / 36.4% |
42.9% / 21.2% |
7.4 / 3.9 |
42 / 72 |
31.3% / 50.9% |
28.6% / 48.6% |
60.4% / 41.5% |
5.6 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 45.8% |
23.0 / 30.0 |
14 |
NYG |
16 – 40 L |
-22.0 |
37.1% / 37.9% |
14.3% / 6.9% |
10.0% / 3.7% |
5.8 / 6.0 |
45.5% / 47.1% |
27.3% / 11.8% |
3.8 / 6.7 |
57 / 63 |
46.7% / 46.9% |
40.4% / 42.9% |
65.3% / 59.5% |
5.1 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.6% / 54.0% |
27.6 / 29.6 |
15 |
@JAC |
16 – 13 W |
-1.6 |
39.3% / 17.4% |
10.7% / 26.1% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
4.9 / 0.9 |
39.4% / 42.3% |
33.3% / 23.1% |
3.3 / 6.6 |
61 / 49 |
37.8% / 27.8% |
39.3% / 30.6% |
30.2% / 67.7% |
4.0 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 2.0% |
54.1% / 53.1% |
31.5 / 23.9 |
16 |
@TEN |
16 – 25 L |
0.4 |
48.0% / 50.0% |
8.0% / 10.7% |
8.7% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 6.9 |
64.7% / 51.9% |
8.8% / 29.6% |
4.7 / 3.7 |
59 / 55 |
57.8% / 52.3% |
57.6% / 50.9% |
37.3% / 31.6% |
4.9 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
57.6% / 49.1% |
18.3 / 29.8 |
17 |
PHI |
0 – 24 L |
-8.8 |
31.3% / 51.4% |
12.5% / 8.1% |
3.6% / 2.9% |
2.1 / 6.2 |
41.7% / 61.8% |
33.3% / 17.6% |
1.8 / 3.8 |
44 / 71 |
41.9% / 57.4% |
34.1% / 56.3% |
22.5% / 23.3% |
2.0 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
27.3% / 47.9% |
27.4 / 28.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
ATL |
18 – 12 W |
-0.9 |
32.4% / 31.9% |
5.4% / 8.5% |
2.9% / 2.3% |
3.2 / 4.8 |
55.6% / 44.4% |
22.2% / 27.8% |
4.2 / 4.1 |
64 / 65 |
40.4% / 38.8% |
42.2% / 35.4% |
20.7% / 49.5% |
3.6 / 4.6 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
42.2% / 27.7% |
22.2 / 35.2 |
2 |
@TB |
21 – 27 L |
-11.1 |
41.2% / 60.0% |
5.9% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
6.3 / 11.2 |
54.2% / 26.1% |
20.8% / 43.5% |
3.8 / 1.9 |
75 / 58 |
48.1% / 48.9% |
45.3% / 46.6% |
36.2% / 45.4% |
5.5 / 7.5 |
2.7% / 1.7% |
32.0% / 39.7% |
25.5 / 27.2 |
3 |
IND |
20 – 16 W |
0.6 |
47.6% / 39.5% |
11.9% / 4.7% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 3.3 |
60.0% / 38.5% |
28.6% / 23.1% |
4.3 / 5.2 |
77 / 56 |
55.6% / 45.2% |
53.2% / 39.3% |
34.0% / 46.9% |
4.9 / 3.7 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
45.5% / 23.2% |
21.6 / 36.1 |
4 |
@TEN |
23 – 26 L |
2.6 |
46.3% / 47.8% |
7.4% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
5.8 / 7.1 |
36.4% / 40.9% |
13.6% / 36.4% |
5.3 / 3.2 |
76 / 68 |
45.9% / 47.9% |
43.4% / 45.6% |
41.0% / 39.0% |
5.7 / 5.8 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
28.9% / 32.4% |
28.0 / 24.4 |
5 |
MIN |
21 – 23 L |
-7.0 |
55.3% / 60.5% |
7.9% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 7.8 |
58.8% / 47.8% |
11.8% / 21.7% |
4.8 / 3.3 |
55 / 61 |
63.6% / 62.5% |
56.4% / 55.7% |
51.9% / 49.1% |
6.6 / 6.1 |
3.6% / 1.6% |
30.9% / 37.7% |
30.9 / 27.0 |
6 |
@NYG |
34 – 13 W |
14.8 |
48.6% / 34.0% |
2.7% / 8.5% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
7.3 / 5.4 |
51.6% / 52.9% |
16.1% / 17.6% |
3.5 / 8.6 |
68 / 64 |
48.1% / 42.9% |
50.0% / 39.1% |
32.7% / 58.4% |
5.6 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.6% / 26.6% |
31.4 / 25.5 |
7 |
CAR |
17 – 21 L |
6.8 |
51.2% / 51.2% |
9.8% / 4.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.9 / 6.1 |
54.2% / 64.7% |
25.0% / 17.6% |
2.4 / 7.1 |
65 / 58 |
57.1% / 57.8% |
52.3% / 55.2% |
37.7% / 50.1% |
5.3 / 6.4 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
36.9% / 29.3% |
19.8 / 26.3 |
8 |
@JAC |
24 – 18 W |
2.2 |
52.9% / 44.4% |
11.8% / 8.9% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
7.7 / 5.9 |
46.4% / 64.7% |
14.3% / 17.6% |
4.8 / 4.1 |
62 / 62 |
50.0% / 52.2% |
50.0% / 50.0% |
63.0% / 34.3% |
6.4 / 5.4 |
1.6% / 1.6% |
45.2% / 27.4% |
26.9 / 29.0 |
10 |
DAL |
20 – 27 L |
-4.0 |
54.3% / 50.0% |
4.3% / 10.0% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
7.6 / 6.0 |
56.3% / 46.4% |
31.3% / 21.4% |
4.4 / 6.1 |
62 / 68 |
61.2% / 47.1% |
54.8% / 48.5% |
32.1% / 50.2% |
6.8 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
25.8% / 41.2% |
32.3 / 25.6 |
11 |
@NO |
7 – 48 L |
-20.4 |
36.1% / 68.8% |
8.3% / 0.0% |
9.1% / 0.0% |
3.8 / 11.7 |
58.3% / 45.9% |
25.0% / 27.0% |
4.8 / 4.7 |
48 / 69 |
47.2% / 57.1% |
41.7% / 56.5% |
14.3% / 56.6% |
4.1 / 7.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
25.0% / 53.6% |
25.1 / 27.2 |
12 |
NYG |
25 – 22 W |
-6.0 |
51.6% / 48.7% |
9.7% / 5.1% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
6.9 / 7.1 |
41.4% / 44.4% |
27.6% / 27.8% |
4.4 / 7.0 |
60 / 57 |
51.1% / 48.9% |
46.7% / 47.4% |
42.5% / 48.3% |
5.7 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
48.3% / 31.6% |
31.1 / 23.9 |
13 |
WAS |
28 – 13 W |
4.3 |
59.0% / 25.0% |
0.0% / 10.7% |
2.6% / 4.0% |
7.8 / 4.7 |
36.4% / 35.7% |
21.2% / 42.9% |
3.9 / 7.4 |
72 / 42 |
50.9% / 31.3% |
48.6% / 28.6% |
41.5% / 60.4% |
6.1 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.8% / 33.3% |
30.0 / 23.0 |
14 |
@DAL |
23 – 29 L |
-3.1 |
52.9% / 57.9% |
5.9% / 5.3% |
0.0% / 3.7% |
6.5 / 7.6 |
21.4% / 50.0% |
42.9% / 27.8% |
2.4 / 3.9 |
48 / 93 |
50.0% / 54.8% |
43.8% / 54.8% |
45.7% / 38.0% |
5.3 / 6.2 |
2.1% / 1.1% |
29.2% / 38.7% |
36.4 / 22.6 |
15 |
@LA |
30 – 23 W |
4.8 |
38.7% / 56.4% |
0.0% / 1.8% |
3.2% / 3.7% |
8.7 / 5.9 |
36.7% / 55.6% |
23.3% / 33.3% |
3.7 / 4.6 |
61 / 73 |
40.4% / 61.7% |
37.7% / 56.2% |
39.6% / 32.7% |
6.2 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
49.2% / 24.7% |
38.8 / 25.4 |
16 |
HOU |
32 – 30 W |
2.8 |
51.0% / 47.7% |
2.0% / 9.1% |
2.0% / 0.0% |
9.1 / 7.0 |
31.8% / 36.8% |
45.5% / 26.3% |
2.6 / 3.3 |
73 / 63 |
38.5% / 48.1% |
45.2% / 44.4% |
57.2% / 33.4% |
7.1 / 5.9 |
2.7% / 1.6% |
30.1% / 30.2% |
24.8 / 36.2 |
17 |
@WAS |
24 – 0 W |
8.8 |
51.4% / 31.3% |
8.1% / 12.5% |
2.9% / 3.6% |
6.2 / 2.1 |
61.8% / 41.7% |
17.6% / 33.3% |
3.8 / 1.8 |
71 / 44 |
57.4% / 41.9% |
56.3% / 34.1% |
23.3% / 22.5% |
5.1 / 2.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.9% / 27.3% |
28.4 / 27.4 |
18 |
@CHI |
16 – 15 W |
0.1 |
48.8% / 40.0% |
2.4% / 4.4% |
5.0% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 6.5 |
26.1% / 33.3% |
39.1% / 44.4% |
1.8 / 3.6 |
64 / 63 |
38.8% / 41.3% |
40.6% / 38.1% |
33.3% / 51.1% |
4.7 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.9% / 28.6% |
21.5 / 26.5 |
19 |
@NO |
14 – 20 L |
4.0 |
45.2% / 47.5% |
0.0% / 5.0% |
6.5% / 2.6% |
6.5 / 7.1 |
37.5% / 48.4% |
12.5% / 22.6% |
3.1 / 4.4 |
47 / 71 |
46.2% / 46.2% |
42.6% / 47.9% |
31.6% / 61.4% |
5.3 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.0% / 43.7% |
26.5 / 19.8 |