Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – Washington (+4.5) over PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles are scoring nearly 28 points/game this season (6th) but much of that is due to luck. Philadelphia has converted an unsustainable 51% of 3rd downs this season, which will certainly drop given that no team has converted more than 50% of 3rd downs in the last 5 seasons and the teams to do so prior to that had Hall of Fame caliber quarterbacks. The Eagles 3rd down offense ranks first according to my metrics, while their 1st-2nd down offense ranks 30th – I expect them to regress towards the mean on 3rd down moving forward, which will kill more of their drives before they have a chance to score.
Philadelphia’s offense may have a difficult matchup this week against Washington. The Redskins defense ranks 13th in my numbers despite facing three top-10 offenses in five games, including this Eagles team. Furthermore, Washington’s defense has been unlucky in high leverage situations and actually ranks 5th when filtering out 3rd down and redzone plays, which are highly variable and are likely to improve for Washington going forward. The Redskins will likely be without two starting cornerbacks, as Josh Norman is out and Bashaud Breeland is questionable. However, the Redskins have been getting good play from their other cornerbacks too, so the drop probably won’t be that significant and they held San Francisco to 49% completions and 5.0 yards per pass play last week without Norman, which is less than the Niners’ 5.2 yppp season average.
Kirk Cousins pass offense ranks 3rd in my metrics and is improving as he gains familiarity with his new weapons. Cousins has thrown for a combined 9.7 yppp in Washington’s last 3 games after struggling a bit the first two weeks. The Redskins offense has been very unfortunate to lose 1.4 fumbles per game this season (no team last season averaged more than 0.9) and that has made the offense appear to be worse than it actually is.
I rate the Redskins as the better team and the injuries to Washington’s secondary have already been priced into this inflated line. I’ll consider Washington a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.2
38.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.9%
41.0%
-
Sack Rate
4.4%
7.9%
-
Int Rate
1.0%
3.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.4%
19.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
50.2%
47.7%
-
NYPP
7.8
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.2
22.4
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
20.7%
21.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.1%
47.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.0%
31.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
63.4
61.2
-
Early Down Succ
50.4%
46.2%
-
Succ Rate
47.6%
43.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
47.7%
43.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
2.3%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.1
27.5
-
Run Ratio
47.5%
36.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.6
27.9
-
Game Control
4.5
-4.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.2
43.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.2%
44.8%
-
Sack Rate
6.8%
5.8%
-
Int Rate
1.3%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.1%
13.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.2%
31.6%
-
NYPP
6.9
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.5
17.5
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
23.3%
32.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.0%
39.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.7%
54.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
68.7
61.3
-
Early Down Succ
43.3%
46.3%
-
Succ Rate
43.7%
43.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.5%
36.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.1
25.2
-
Run Ratio
45.6%
28.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.1
28.0
-
Game Control
5.5
-5.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
PHI |
17 – 30 L |
-5.1 |
38.6% / 51.2% |
9.1% / 4.9% |
2.5% / 2.6% |
4.5 / 7.3 |
58.8% / 36.0% |
23.5% / 28.0% |
3.8 / 2.4 |
61 / 66 |
49.0% / 44.0% |
44.3% / 45.5% |
38.3% / 37.8% |
4.3 / 5.4 |
4.9% / 1.5% |
27.9% / 37.9% |
26.1 / 31.8 |
2 |
@LA |
27 – 20 W |
4.5 |
48.3% / 39.3% |
6.9% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
5.4 / 8.6 |
46.2% / 59.1% |
17.9% / 13.6% |
5.9 / 4.2 |
68 / 50 |
49.1% / 51.4% |
47.1% / 48.0% |
46.2% / 61.9% |
5.7 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 2.0% |
57.4% / 44.0% |
34.5 / 22.4 |
3 |
OAK |
27 – 10 W |
11.9 |
61.3% / 37.1% |
3.2% / 11.4% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
11.5 / 2.7 |
35.3% / 21.4% |
17.6% / 21.4% |
3.4 / 2.4 |
65 / 49 |
48.0% / 42.4% |
47.7% / 32.7% |
53.2% / 24.8% |
7.3 / 2.6 |
3.1% / 2.0% |
52.3% / 28.6% |
28.7 / 31.7 |
4 |
@KC |
20 – 29 L |
4.3 |
45.8% / 47.5% |
0.0% / 10.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.2 / 6.5 |
51.9% / 58.1% |
14.8% / 19.4% |
4.1 / 5.4 |
51 / 71 |
54.1% / 51.7% |
49.0% / 52.1% |
57.2% / 43.4% |
6.5 / 6.0 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
52.9% / 43.7% |
26.8 / 21.2 |
6 |
SF |
26 – 24 W |
7.0 |
60.5% / 30.0% |
2.6% / 6.0% |
2.7% / 2.1% |
8.6 / 5.0 |
38.2% / 65.0% |
29.4% / 25.0% |
2.8 / 4.3 |
72 / 70 |
51.8% / 41.2% |
50.0% / 40.0% |
43.6% / 50.4% |
5.8 / 4.8 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
47.2% / 28.6% |
26.9 / 32.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@WAS |
30 – 17 W |
5.1 |
51.2% / 38.6% |
4.9% / 9.1% |
2.6% / 2.5% |
7.3 / 4.5 |
36.0% / 58.8% |
28.0% / 23.5% |
2.4 / 3.8 |
66 / 61 |
44.0% / 49.0% |
45.5% / 44.3% |
37.8% / 38.3% |
5.4 / 4.3 |
1.5% / 4.9% |
37.9% / 27.9% |
31.8 / 26.1 |
2 |
@KC |
20 – 27 L |
-2.0 |
44.2% / 50.0% |
11.5% / 12.5% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 7.3 |
58.8% / 47.4% |
17.6% / 26.3% |
6.3 / 5.9 |
69 / 51 |
46.3% / 51.3% |
47.8% / 49.0% |
42.4% / 45.3% |
5.9 / 6.7 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
24.6% / 37.3% |
26.1 / 35.6 |
3 |
NYG |
27 – 24 W |
4.0 |
41.2% / 59.6% |
8.8% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
4.7 / 7.8 |
48.7% / 23.5% |
23.1% / 23.5% |
5.0 / 2.9 |
73 / 64 |
47.3% / 55.8% |
45.2% / 50.0% |
30.4% / 23.4% |
4.9 / 6.5 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
53.4% / 26.6% |
21.5 / 34.6 |
4 |
@LAC |
26 – 24 W |
6.2 |
46.9% / 42.5% |
3.1% / 5.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 8.6 |
47.7% / 38.5% |
20.5% / 46.2% |
4.9 / 4.5 |
76 / 53 |
47.3% / 39.5% |
47.4% / 41.5% |
56.1% / 68.3% |
6.0 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
57.9% / 24.5% |
22.1 / 22.2 |
5 |
ARI |
34 – 7 W |
16.7 |
48.4% / 41.3% |
3.2% / 4.3% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
9.6 / 6.0 |
28.6% / 21.4% |
22.9% / 35.7% |
3.5 / 2.2 |
66 / 60 |
33.3% / 37.2% |
37.9% / 36.7% |
52.3% / 20.2% |
6.4 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
53.0% / 23.3% |
34.1 / 19.3 |
6 |
@CAR |
28 – 23 W |
3.0 |
39.4% / 37.0% |
9.1% / 3.7% |
0.0% / 5.8% |
6.3 / 4.2 |
37.9% / 48.0% |
27.6% / 40.0% |
3.6 / 3.2 |
62 / 79 |
41.9% / 45.0% |
38.7% / 40.5% |
54.2% / 20.7% |
5.0 / 3.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
46.8% / 31.6% |
32.9 / 30.0 |