Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Washington (+4.5) over PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles are scoring nearly 28 points/game this season (6th) but much of that is due to luck. Philadelphia has converted an unsustainable 51% of 3rd downs this season, which will certainly drop given that no team has converted more than 50% of 3rd downs in the last 5 seasons and the teams to do so prior to that had Hall of Fame caliber quarterbacks. The Eagles 3rd down offense ranks first according to my metrics, while their 1st-2nd down offense ranks 30th – I expect them to regress towards the mean on 3rd down moving forward, which will kill more of their drives before they have a chance to score.

Philadelphia’s offense may have a difficult matchup this week against Washington. The Redskins defense ranks 13th in my numbers despite facing three top-10 offenses in five games, including this Eagles team. Furthermore, Washington’s defense has been unlucky in high leverage situations and actually ranks 5^th when filtering out 3rd down and redzone plays, which are highly variable and are likely to improve for Washington going forward. The Redskins will likely be without two starting cornerbacks, as Josh Norman is out and Bashaud Breeland is questionable. However, the Redskins have been getting good play from their other cornerbacks too, so the drop probably won’t be that significant and they held San Francisco to 49% completions and 5.0 yards per pass play last week without Norman, which is less than the Niners’ 5.2 yppp season average.

Kirk Cousins pass offense ranks 3rd in my metrics and is improving as he gains familiarity with his new weapons. Cousins has thrown for a combined 9.7 yppp in Washington’s last 3 games after struggling a bit the first two weeks. The Redskins offense has been very unfortunate to lose 1.4 fumbles per game this season (no team last season averaged more than 0.9) and that has made the offense appear to be worse than it actually is.

I rate the Redskins as the better team and the injuries to Washington’s secondary have already been priced into this inflated line. I’ll consider Washington a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Redskins
Eagles

WAS

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.2 38.8
Succ Pass Plays 50.9% 41.0%
Sack Rate 4.4% 7.9%
Int Rate 1.0% 3.0%
Deep Pass Rate 14.4% 19.8%
Big Pass Yards 50.2% 47.7%
NYPP 7.8 6.0

Rush

Rush Plays 30.2 22.4
RB YPR 3.6 3.7
Stuff Rate 20.7% 21.5%
Succ Rush Plays 46.1% 47.9%
Big Rush Yards 34.0% 31.3%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 3.7

Game

All Snaps 63.4 61.2
Early Down Succ 50.4% 46.2%
Succ Rate 47.6% 43.6%
Big Yards Rate 47.7% 43.7%
Yards Per Play 5.9 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 2.3% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.1 27.5
Run Ratio 47.5% 36.5%
Starting Field Pos 28.6 27.9
Game Control 4.5 -4.5

Points 23.4 22.6

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PHI	17 – 30 L	-5.1	38.6% / 51.2%	9.1% / 4.9%	2.5% / 2.6%	4.5 / 7.3	58.8% / 36.0%	23.5% / 28.0%	3.8 / 2.4	61 / 66	49.0% / 44.0%	44.3% / 45.5%	38.3% / 37.8%	4.3 / 5.4	4.9% / 1.5%	27.9% / 37.9%	26.1 / 31.8
2	@LA	27 – 20 W	4.5	48.3% / 39.3%	6.9% / 7.1%	0.0% / 3.8%	5.4 / 8.6	46.2% / 59.1%	17.9% / 13.6%	5.9 / 4.2	68 / 50	49.1% / 51.4%	47.1% / 48.0%	46.2% / 61.9%	5.7 / 6.7	0.0% / 2.0%	57.4% / 44.0%	34.5 / 22.4
3	OAK	27 – 10 W	11.9	61.3% / 37.1%	3.2% / 11.4%	0.0% / 6.5%	11.5 / 2.7	35.3% / 21.4%	17.6% / 21.4%	3.4 / 2.4	65 / 49	48.0% / 42.4%	47.7% / 32.7%	53.2% / 24.8%	7.3 / 2.6	3.1% / 2.0%	52.3% / 28.6%	28.7 / 31.7
4	@KC	20 – 29 L	4.3	45.8% / 47.5%	0.0% / 10.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.2 / 6.5	51.9% / 58.1%	14.8% / 19.4%	4.1 / 5.4	51 / 71	54.1% / 51.7%	49.0% / 52.1%	57.2% / 43.4%	6.5 / 6.0	2.0% / 0.0%	52.9% / 43.7%	26.8 / 21.2
6	SF	26 – 24 W	7.0	60.5% / 30.0%	2.6% / 6.0%	2.7% / 2.1%	8.6 / 5.0	38.2% / 65.0%	29.4% / 25.0%	2.8 / 4.3	72 / 70	51.8% / 41.2%	50.0% / 40.0%	43.6% / 50.4%	5.8 / 4.8	1.4% / 0.0%	47.2% / 28.6%	26.9 / 32.6

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@WAS	30 – 17 W	5.1	51.2% / 38.6%	4.9% / 9.1%	2.6% / 2.5%	7.3 / 4.5	36.0% / 58.8%	28.0% / 23.5%	2.4 / 3.8	66 / 61	44.0% / 49.0%	45.5% / 44.3%	37.8% / 38.3%	5.4 / 4.3	1.5% / 4.9%	37.9% / 27.9%	31.8 / 26.1
2	@KC	20 – 27 L	-2.0	44.2% / 50.0%	11.5% / 12.5%	2.2% / 0.0%	5.8 / 7.3	58.8% / 47.4%	17.6% / 26.3%	6.3 / 5.9	69 / 51	46.3% / 51.3%	47.8% / 49.0%	42.4% / 45.3%	5.9 / 6.7	1.4% / 0.0%	24.6% / 37.3%	26.1 / 35.6
3	NYG	27 – 24 W	4.0	41.2% / 59.6%	8.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.3%	4.7 / 7.8	48.7% / 23.5%	23.1% / 23.5%	5.0 / 2.9	73 / 64	47.3% / 55.8%	45.2% / 50.0%	30.4% / 23.4%	4.9 / 6.5	1.4% / 0.0%	53.4% / 26.6%	21.5 / 34.6
4	@LAC	26 – 24 W	6.2	46.9% / 42.5%	3.1% / 5.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 8.6	47.7% / 38.5%	20.5% / 46.2%	4.9 / 4.5	76 / 53	47.3% / 39.5%	47.4% / 41.5%	56.1% / 68.3%	6.0 / 7.5	0.0% / 1.9%	57.9% / 24.5%	22.1 / 22.2
5	ARI	34 – 7 W	16.7	48.4% / 41.3%	3.2% / 4.3%	3.3% / 0.0%	9.6 / 6.0	28.6% / 21.4%	22.9% / 35.7%	3.5 / 2.2	66 / 60	33.3% / 37.2%	37.9% / 36.7%	52.3% / 20.2%	6.4 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.7%	53.0% / 23.3%	34.1 / 19.3
6	@CAR	28 – 23 W	3.0	39.4% / 37.0%	9.1% / 3.7%	0.0% / 5.8%	6.3 / 4.2	37.9% / 48.0%	27.6% / 40.0%	3.6 / 3.2	62 / 79	41.9% / 45.0%	38.7% / 40.5%	54.2% / 20.7%	5.0 / 3.9	1.6% / 0.0%	46.8% / 31.6%	32.9 / 30.0

Washington Redskins @

Philadelphia Eagles

Mon, Oct 23

5:30 PM Pacific

Game Analysis