Game Analysis
NY GIANTS (-1) vs Washington
The Giants traded two defensive starters this week with Eli Apple heading to New Orleans and Damon Harrison to Detroit. Apple is only slightly above a replacement level cornerback and I don’t expect his absence to affect New York’s defense in any significant way. On the other hand, Damon Harrison was an All-Pro defensive tackle and probably the most talented player on for the Giants defensively. Harrison had just 4 quarterback pressures this season but ranked 2nd among all interiors defensive linemen with a 14.3% run stop rate. New York’s rush defense currently ranks 8th in our numbers in large part because of Harrison’s efforts and I’m expecting them to fall below average without him in the lineup.
Meanwhile, Washington’s rush defense ranks 31st and Saquon Barkley could be in line for a huge game on the ground. However, the Redskins are allowing just 4.2 yards per target to opposing running backs so I wouldn’t expect Barkley to be as effective in the screen game. Fabian Moreau ranks 3rd among nickelbacks conceding just 0.62 yards per slot cover snap, but he’s dealing with an ankle injury and may not be available on Sunday opening the door for Sterling Shepard, who’s gaining 1.72 yards per route run in the slot (6th). To make matters worse in Washington’s secondary, Quinton Dunbar is also questionable to play and backup cornerback Greg Stroman has been terrible surrendering 2.11 yards per cover snap.
Our model has the Giants favored by 1.1 with a total prediction of 43.9 after making all the adjustments for current personnel. I’ll pass.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
26.8
31.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
141.1%
157.4%
-
Sack Rate
21.6%
21.9%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.1%
16.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.0%
37.5%
-
NYPP
19.9
18.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.2
23.3
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
26.0%
16.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.7%
49.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.9%
34.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
57.0
55.2
-
Early Down Succ
46.6%
49.9%
-
Succ Rate
52.2%
60.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.9%
37.1%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
6.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
2.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
34.8
35.3
-
Run Ratio
54.8%
47.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.8
26.4
-
Game Control
2.7
-2.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.9
33.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.7%
51.2%
-
Sack Rate
8.3%
4.0%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.7%
18.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.8%
46.5%
-
NYPP
7.6
7.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
19.6
27.9
-
RB YPR
4.3
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
30.1%
22.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.6%
44.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
61.6%
43.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
59.4
61.4
-
Early Down Succ
44.0%
50.0%
-
Succ Rate
44.5%
48.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.6%
46.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.3
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.2
30.1
-
Run Ratio
33.4%
45.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.2
28.8
-
Game Control
-5.0
5.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@ARI |
24 – 6 W |
13.7 |
600.0% /
700.0% |
100.0% /
100.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
82.3 /
72.5 |
46.5% /
56.3% |
25.6% /
12.5% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
46 /
18 |
50.0% /
53.7% |
82.6% /
127.8% |
47.0% /
35.0% |
9.3 /
11.9 |
2.2% /
5.6% |
93.5% /
88.9% |
18.0 /
29.3 |
| 2 |
IND |
9 – 21 L |
-8.3 |
48.9% /
43.8% |
6.4% /
3.1% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
5.7 /
5.5 |
40.9% /
40.0% |
40.9% /
13.3% |
3.0 /
3.5 |
69 /
62 |
50.0% /
40.5% |
46.4% /
41.9% |
28.1% /
25.4% |
4.8 /
4.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
48.4% |
29.3 /
24.7 |
| 3 |
GB |
31 – 17 W |
12.0 |
50.0% /
34.7% |
0.0% /
8.2% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
11.0 /
4.9 |
32.4% /
64.7% |
10.8% /
11.8% |
4.5 /
5.9 |
57 /
66 |
40.5% /
42.9% |
38.6% /
42.4% |
60.1% /
35.9% |
6.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
64.9% /
25.8% |
30.8 /
26.4 |
| 5 |
@NO |
19 – 43 L |
-15.4 |
69.2% /
71.4% |
11.5% /
7.1% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
12.5 |
50.0% /
36.1% |
27.8% /
5.6% |
2.2 /
2.8 |
44 /
64 |
48.8% /
54.9% |
61.4% /
51.6% |
51.2% /
54.3% |
6.4 /
7.0 |
2.3% /
1.6% |
40.9% /
56.3% |
33.4 /
36.2 |
| 6 |
CAR |
23 – 17 W |
9.4 |
35.9% /
53.7% |
7.7% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
4.0 /
6.6 |
51.7% /
47.4% |
10.3% /
26.3% |
4.6 /
4.3 |
68 /
60 |
43.8% /
58.3% |
42.6% /
51.7% |
36.3% /
25.9% |
4.3 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
42.6% /
31.7% |
33.7 /
20.3 |
| 7 |
DAL |
20 – 17 W |
4.7 |
42.3% /
41.0% |
3.8% /
10.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.4 |
40.6% /
54.5% |
40.6% /
27.3% |
4.1 /
3.3 |
58 /
61 |
46.7% /
48.9% |
41.4% /
45.9% |
46.6% /
45.8% |
5.3 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
55.2% /
36.1% |
33.4 /
21.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
JAC |
15 – 20 L |
-3.9 |
28.2% /
44.1% |
5.1% /
2.9% |
2.7% /
3.0% |
5.4 /
4.9 |
34.8% /
36.7% |
30.4% /
16.7% |
5.0 /
4.6 |
62 /
64 |
31.9% /
46.8% |
30.6% /
40.6% |
38.0% /
38.8% |
5.2 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
37.1% /
46.9% |
25.3 /
31.5 |
| 2 |
@DAL |
13 – 20 L |
-10.5 |
36.0% /
36.0% |
12.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
6.4 |
47.1% /
59.3% |
35.3% /
14.8% |
2.1 /
5.2 |
67 /
52 |
33.3% /
56.8% |
38.8% /
48.1% |
18.4% /
48.3% |
3.8 /
5.8 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
25.4% /
51.9% |
27.9 /
27.6 |
| 3 |
@HOU |
27 – 22 W |
7.6 |
60.6% /
53.7% |
12.1% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
8.0 /
9.0 |
32.1% /
42.1% |
25.0% /
36.8% |
4.1 /
3.1 |
61 /
60 |
47.8% /
50.0% |
47.5% /
50.0% |
41.3% /
53.4% |
6.2 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
45.9% /
31.7% |
22.2 /
28.9 |
| 4 |
NO |
18 – 33 L |
-3.5 |
56.8% /
42.9% |
6.8% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.3 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
48.6% |
18.8% /
8.6% |
4.1 /
4.9 |
60 /
70 |
58.3% /
51.0% |
55.0% /
45.7% |
29.3% /
55.4% |
5.0 /
5.6 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
26.7% /
50.0% |
22.5 /
33.9 |
| 5 |
@CAR |
31 – 33 L |
-5.4 |
75.0% /
76.2% |
4.2% /
4.8% |
8.7% /
10.0% |
15.9 /
11.0 |
25.0% /
40.6% |
43.8% /
28.1% |
3.1 /
3.7 |
40 /
53 |
46.7% /
47.1% |
55.0% /
54.7% |
59.3% /
52.7% |
10.8 /
6.6 |
2.5% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
60.4% |
30.5 /
28.5 |
| 6 |
PHI |
13 – 34 L |
-14.8 |
34.0% /
48.6% |
8.5% /
2.7% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
7.3 |
52.9% /
51.6% |
17.6% /
16.1% |
8.6 /
3.5 |
64 /
68 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
39.1% /
50.0% |
58.4% /
32.7% |
6.3 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
26.6% /
45.6% |
25.5 /
31.4 |
| 7 |
@ATL |
20 – 23 L |
-4.5 |
50.0% /
57.1% |
9.5% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
8.5 |
35.0% /
33.3% |
40.0% /
33.3% |
3.1 /
3.2 |
62 /
63 |
46.9% /
50.0% |
45.2% /
49.2% |
60.3% /
42.2% |
7.0 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
32.3% /
33.3% |
22.4 /
19.7 |
Washington Redskins
@ 
New York Giants