Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – KANSAS CITY (-6.5 at -115 odds) vs Washington
Kansas City has been the league’s best team in my metrics through 3 weeks – the Chiefs rank 2nd on offense and 7th on defense. Kareem Hunt leads the league’s top-ranked rushing offense. In fact, Kansas City has gained more than double the amount of points from their ground game than any other team. However, Hunt and the KC offensive line will be challenged by a Washington run defense that ranks 5th according to my numbers.
The match-up isn’t particularly good for the Redskins’ offense either, as that unit has gotten it done through the air this year (6th in my ratings in passing) while Kansas City’s pass defense ranks 7th in my numbers. This will be another matchup of strength vs strength and overall my model favors Kansas City by 8.8 points. The line value is certainly not enough on its own to make this a play but Kansas City applies to a 68-26-1 ATS Monday night football situation and unbeaten teams (2-0 or better) are 19-3-1 ATS at home on Monday nights as long as they’re not favored by more than 7 points.
Washington. meanwhile, is in a letdown situation this week after last weeks’ satisfying upset win over the Raiders. Teams with winning records that are coming off a win as a home underdog are just 99-150-8 ATS in road games and the Redskins also apply to a negative 39-93-3 ATS road letdown situation. We had a Strong Opinion on Washington in a very good situation last week and now the situation is against the Skins. In the last 15 seasons, Kansas City is 8-3 ATS in night games at Arrowhead with the only losses coming to Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Kurt Cousins is not Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. I’ll consider Kansas City a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less (-110 odds or better).
Football Best Bets 25-11 This Season
My Football Best Bets are now 25-11 this season after a 7-4 weekend. I was 7-1 on my week 5 College Best Bets and I am now 21-7 on my College Best Bets this season. I did have a bad week in the NFL, as Best Bets were 0-3 while Strong Opinions are 2-0 heading into this game. But, NFL Best Bets are still 104-73 (59%) using the new NFL play-by-play model introduced last season, including 69-29 (70%) on sides.
I was 148-107 (58%) on all Football Best Bets in 2016 and this season is looking just as profitable.
I was pretty conservative the first 3 weeks in College Football but my in-season math model has kicked in and I am 14-5 on my College Best Bets the last two weeks.
In addition to weekly Best Bet packages I also have 4-Week and full season subscription packages available and you can view all Best Bet subscription packages on the Best Bets page.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Redskins
- Chiefs
Pass
- Pass Plays 34.7 34.7
- Succ Pass Plays 49.4% 42.5%
- Sack Rate 6.4% 7.8%
- Int Rate 0.8% 4.3%
- Deep Pass Rate 9.2% 17.9%
- Big Pass Yards 45.8% 47.0%
- NYPP 7.1 6.2
Rush
- Rush Plays 30.0 20.3
- RB YPR 4.1 3.0
- Stuff Rate 19.7% 21.0%
- Succ Rush Plays 46.8% 38.8%
- Big Rush Yards 31.6% 21.5%
- Yards Per Rush 4.3 3.0
Game
- All Snaps 64.7 55.0
- Early Down Succ 48.7% 46.0%
- Succ Rate 46.3% 42.0%
- Big Yards Rate 45.9% 41.5%
- Yards Per Play 5.8 4.9
- Fumble Lost Rate 2.7% 1.9%
- Time Per Play (sec) 30.8 28.8
- Run Ratio 45.8% 36.8%
- Starting Field Pos 29.7 28.6
- Game Control 3.8 -3.8
- Points 23.7 20.0