Washington Redskins @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Dec 16
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 321
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5, Total: 36

Game Analysis

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Lean – Washington (+7.5) over JACKSONVILLE

This total will be the lowest we’ve seen in the last 5 years if it closes at 36 – and for good reason with Cody Kessler and Josh Johnson under center. I think Johnson’s ceiling is higher and he threw for 12.2 yards per pass play while adding 45 rushing yards in garbage time last week. Johnson has always been an excellent runner as he notably rushed for 103 yards on his way to winning the 2008 East-West Shrine Game MVP and ran a 4.53-second 40-yard dash at the combine prior to being drafted by the Buccaneers. Quarterbacks with mobility seem to be undervalued in the current market, but there’s also a chance Johnson is terrible given he’s only been with the team for a week and he’ll play behind a depleted offensive line and without TE Jordan Reed. Still, I expect Vernon Davis to step up, as he’s averaged 5.1 targets per game in 10 games without Reed in the lineup over the last two seasons, compared to 2.6 targets per game in 19 games paired with Reed. Davis is gaining 1.96 yards per route run (7th) compared to Reed’s 1.64 yards per route run and Jacksonville’s defense is relatively weaker against tight ends than defending wide receivers and running backs.

At this point, it’s pretty clear Cody Kessler is indeed worse than Blake Bortles. The third-year quarterback is gaining just 4.2 yards per pass play and the Jaguars might actually be better off using their ground game versus Washington’s 25th-rated rush defense. Our model leans with the Redskins (math has Jags by 5.2 points) and predicts just 33.4 points in this game. However, playing under low totals isn’t wise in the modern NFL as there are just too many ways to stumble into points. In fact, the over is 18-10 with the total under the key number of 37 since 2010. Call it a lean with Washington and no opinion on the total.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Redskins
  • Jaguars
WAS
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 32.2 35.2
  • Succ Pass Plays 86.7% 98.4%
  • Sack Rate 14.6% 14.1%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.6% 15.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.7% 43.5%
  • NYPP 12.0 12.2



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.2 26.4
  • RB YPR 4.0 4.1
  • Stuff Rate 26.4% 17.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 46.5% 46.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 51.4% 37.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.3




Game

  • All Snaps 58.4 61.5
  • Early Down Succ 46.6% 48.5%
  • Succ Rate 47.5% 52.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.7% 42.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.6 6.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 31.5 31.6
  • Run Ratio 45.9% 45.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.9 26.6
  • Game Control -1.8 1.8
 
  • Points 19.2 22.8
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