Game Analysis
Lean – Washington (+7.5) over JACKSONVILLE
This total will be the lowest we’ve seen in the last 5 years if it closes at 36 – and for good reason with Cody Kessler and Josh Johnson under center. I think Johnson’s ceiling is higher and he threw for 12.2 yards per pass play while adding 45 rushing yards in garbage time last week. Johnson has always been an excellent runner as he notably rushed for 103 yards on his way to winning the 2008 East-West Shrine Game MVP and ran a 4.53-second 40-yard dash at the combine prior to being drafted by the Buccaneers. Quarterbacks with mobility seem to be undervalued in the current market, but there’s also a chance Johnson is terrible given he’s only been with the team for a week and he’ll play behind a depleted offensive line and without TE Jordan Reed. Still, I expect Vernon Davis to step up, as he’s averaged 5.1 targets per game in 10 games without Reed in the lineup over the last two seasons, compared to 2.6 targets per game in 19 games paired with Reed. Davis is gaining 1.96 yards per route run (7th) compared to Reed’s 1.64 yards per route run and Jacksonville’s defense is relatively weaker against tight ends than defending wide receivers and running backs.
At this point, it’s pretty clear Cody Kessler is indeed worse than Blake Bortles. The third-year quarterback is gaining just 4.2 yards per pass play and the Jaguars might actually be better off using their ground game versus Washington’s 25th-rated rush defense. Our model leans with the Redskins (math has Jags by 5.2 points) and predicts just 33.4 points in this game. However, playing under low totals isn’t wise in the modern NFL as there are just too many ways to stumble into points. In fact, the over is 18-10 with the total under the key number of 37 since 2010. Call it a lean with Washington and no opinion on the total.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.2
35.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
86.7%
98.4%
-
Sack Rate
14.6%
14.1%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.6%
15.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.7%
43.5%
-
NYPP
12.0
12.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.2
26.4
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
26.4%
17.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.5%
46.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
51.4%
37.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
58.4
61.5
-
Early Down Succ
46.6%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
47.5%
52.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.7%
42.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
6.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.5
31.6
-
Run Ratio
45.9%
45.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
26.6
-
Game Control
-1.8
1.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.7
32.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.7%
46.5%
-
Sack Rate
8.7%
5.8%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.3%
18.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.5%
37.3%
-
NYPP
5.9
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.6
28.0
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
20.4%
23.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.5%
37.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
32.3%
42.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
63.3
60.6
-
Early Down Succ
48.1%
45.3%
-
Succ Rate
47.9%
42.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.0%
41.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
29.2
-
Run Ratio
41.8%
46.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.5
29.4
-
Game Control
-3.0
3.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@ARI |
24 – 6 W |
13.7 |
600.0% / 700.0% |
100.0% / 100.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
82.3 / 72.5 |
46.5% / 56.3% |
25.6% / 12.5% |
4.3 / 4.3 |
46 / 18 |
50.0% / 53.7% |
82.6% / 127.8% |
47.0% / 35.0% |
9.3 / 11.9 |
2.2% / 5.6% |
93.5% / 88.9% |
18.0 / 29.3 |
2 |
IND |
9 – 21 L |
-8.3 |
48.9% / 43.8% |
6.4% / 3.1% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
5.7 / 5.5 |
40.9% / 40.0% |
40.9% / 13.3% |
3.0 / 3.5 |
69 / 62 |
50.0% / 40.5% |
46.4% / 41.9% |
28.1% / 25.4% |
4.8 / 4.6 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
31.9% / 48.4% |
29.3 / 24.7 |
3 |
GB |
31 – 17 W |
12.0 |
50.0% / 34.7% |
0.0% / 8.2% |
5.0% / 0.0% |
11.0 / 4.9 |
32.4% / 64.7% |
10.8% / 11.8% |
4.5 / 5.9 |
57 / 66 |
40.5% / 42.9% |
38.6% / 42.4% |
60.1% / 35.9% |
6.8 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
64.9% / 25.8% |
30.8 / 26.4 |
5 |
@NO |
19 – 43 L |
-15.4 |
69.2% / 71.4% |
11.5% / 7.1% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 12.5 |
50.0% / 36.1% |
27.8% / 5.6% |
2.2 / 2.8 |
44 / 64 |
48.8% / 54.9% |
61.4% / 51.6% |
51.2% / 54.3% |
6.4 / 7.0 |
2.3% / 1.6% |
40.9% / 56.3% |
33.4 / 36.2 |
6 |
CAR |
23 – 17 W |
9.4 |
35.9% / 53.7% |
7.7% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
4.0 / 6.6 |
51.7% / 47.4% |
10.3% / 26.3% |
4.6 / 4.3 |
68 / 60 |
43.8% / 58.3% |
42.6% / 51.7% |
36.3% / 25.9% |
4.3 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
42.6% / 31.7% |
33.7 / 20.3 |
7 |
DAL |
20 – 17 W |
4.7 |
42.3% / 41.0% |
3.8% / 10.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 6.4 |
40.6% / 54.5% |
40.6% / 27.3% |
4.1 / 3.3 |
58 / 61 |
46.7% / 48.9% |
41.4% / 45.9% |
46.6% / 45.8% |
5.3 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
55.2% / 36.1% |
33.4 / 21.4 |
8 |
@NYG |
20 – 13 W |
6.0 |
46.9% / 32.1% |
0.0% / 13.2% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
5.6 / 5.0 |
50.0% / 35.7% |
23.5% / 42.9% |
5.4 / 2.6 |
66 / 67 |
53.1% / 34.7% |
48.5% / 32.8% |
42.1% / 46.9% |
5.5 / 4.5 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
51.5% / 20.9% |
26.4 / 27.2 |
9 |
ATL |
14 – 38 L |
-12.7 |
44.9% / 45.0% |
6.1% / 5.0% |
2.2% / 2.6% |
5.9 / 8.4 |
53.3% / 62.5% |
33.3% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 6.4 |
64 / 64 |
46.9% / 45.1% |
46.9% / 51.6% |
36.6% / 54.4% |
5.7 / 7.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
23.4% / 37.5% |
23.8 / 22.7 |
10 |
@TB |
16 – 3 W |
4.7 |
40.0% / 62.8% |
10.0% / 4.7% |
0.0% / 4.9% |
5.7 / 9.3 |
56.0% / 45.8% |
32.0% / 25.0% |
4.6 / 4.3 |
55 / 67 |
50.0% / 56.1% |
47.3% / 56.7% |
39.9% / 36.5% |
5.2 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
45.5% / 35.8% |
29.7 / 19.0 |
11 |
HOU |
21 – 23 L |
-4.8 |
35.7% / 51.9% |
11.9% / 11.1% |
5.4% / 8.3% |
3.7 / 6.7 |
58.6% / 40.6% |
13.8% / 18.8% |
4.3 / 4.4 |
71 / 59 |
45.5% / 50.0% |
45.1% / 45.8% |
19.4% / 44.2% |
3.9 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
40.8% / 54.2% |
34.4 / 31.8 |
12 |
@DAL |
23 – 31 L |
-6.3 |
51.2% / 45.7% |
7.3% / 11.4% |
7.9% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 7.4 |
42.9% / 41.7% |
14.3% / 16.7% |
3.9 / 4.1 |
62 / 71 |
53.1% / 48.1% |
48.4% / 43.7% |
34.9% / 50.5% |
5.4 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
33.9% / 50.7% |
32.1 / 26.9 |
13 |
@PHI |
13 – 28 L |
-4.3 |
25.0% / 59.0% |
10.7% / 0.0% |
4.0% / 2.6% |
4.7 / 7.8 |
35.7% / 32.4% |
42.9% / 18.9% |
7.4 / 3.6 |
42 / 76 |
31.3% / 50.9% |
28.6% / 46.1% |
60.4% / 41.1% |
5.6 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 48.7% |
23.0 / 30.0 |
14 |
NYG |
16 – 40 L |
-22.0 |
37.1% / 37.9% |
14.3% / 6.9% |
10.0% / 3.7% |
5.8 / 6.0 |
45.5% / 44.4% |
27.3% / 11.1% |
3.8 / 6.3 |
57 / 65 |
46.7% / 46.9% |
40.4% / 41.5% |
65.3% / 59.3% |
5.1 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.6% / 55.4% |
27.6 / 29.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NYG |
20 – 15 W |
3.9 |
44.1% / 28.2% |
2.9% / 5.1% |
3.0% / 2.7% |
4.9 / 5.4 |
36.7% / 34.8% |
16.7% / 30.4% |
4.6 / 5.0 |
64 / 62 |
46.8% / 31.9% |
40.6% / 30.6% |
38.8% / 38.0% |
4.8 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
46.9% / 37.1% |
31.5 / 25.3 |
2 |
NE |
31 – 20 W |
13.1 |
57.8% / 48.6% |
0.0% / 5.4% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
8.4 / 5.9 |
36.0% / 36.0% |
16.0% / 12.0% |
4.2 / 3.3 |
70 / 62 |
46.3% / 47.9% |
50.0% / 43.5% |
42.7% / 38.3% |
6.9 / 4.9 |
1.4% / 1.6% |
35.7% / 40.3% |
25.7 / 30.1 |
3 |
TEN |
6 – 9 L |
-1.5 |
37.8% / 45.8% |
8.1% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.9 / 3.5 |
52.6% / 42.9% |
15.8% / 25.7% |
4.6 / 4.3 |
56 / 59 |
46.3% / 47.7% |
42.9% / 44.1% |
10.3% / 34.3% |
4.1 / 3.9 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
33.9% / 59.3% |
23.3 / 28.2 |
4 |
NYJ |
31 – 12 W |
10.3 |
57.5% / 32.4% |
5.0% / 8.1% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 3.9 |
38.2% / 28.6% |
20.6% / 35.7% |
3.7 / 2.4 |
74 / 51 |
50.0% / 35.1% |
48.6% / 31.4% |
50.5% / 23.6% |
6.8 / 3.5 |
2.7% / 0.0% |
45.9% / 27.5% |
26.8 / 29.8 |
5 |
@KC |
14 – 30 L |
-14.4 |
73.7% / 87.0% |
13.2% / 4.3% |
12.1% / 9.1% |
10.6 / 13.0 |
70.6% / 28.1% |
5.9% / 25.0% |
5.9 / 4.0 |
55 / 55 |
48.4% / 45.5% |
72.7% / 52.7% |
49.8% / 49.3% |
9.1 / 7.7 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
30.9% / 58.2% |
28.3 / 21.3 |
6 |
@DAL |
7 – 40 L |
-18.5 |
48.3% / 36.7% |
10.3% / 10.0% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
4.8 / 5.7 |
38.9% / 45.2% |
16.7% / 23.8% |
3.6 / 4.9 |
47 / 72 |
48.6% / 39.6% |
44.7% / 41.7% |
32.4% / 45.0% |
4.3 / 5.3 |
2.1% / 0.0% |
38.3% / 58.3% |
26.4 / 37.8 |
7 |
HOU |
7 – 20 L |
-12.6 |
45.7% / 36.0% |
8.7% / 4.0% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
4.1 / 5.2 |
31.8% / 51.3% |
27.3% / 12.8% |
3.2 / 3.7 |
68 / 64 |
41.7% / 47.7% |
41.2% / 45.3% |
13.1% / 21.2% |
3.8 / 4.3 |
2.9% / 0.0% |
32.4% / 60.9% |
20.0 / 36.3 |
8 |
PHI |
18 – 24 L |
-2.2 |
44.4% / 52.9% |
8.9% / 11.8% |
0.0% / 3.3% |
5.9 / 7.7 |
64.7% / 41.9% |
17.6% / 12.9% |
4.1 / 4.4 |
62 / 65 |
52.2% / 50.0% |
50.0% / 47.7% |
34.3% / 62.6% |
5.4 / 6.1 |
1.6% / 1.5% |
27.4% / 47.7% |
29.0 / 26.9 |
10 |
@IND |
26 – 29 L |
-7.6 |
56.4% / 55.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 3.4% |
8.3 / 9.8 |
50.0% / 32.0% |
32.4% / 32.0% |
2.7 / 3.4 |
73 / 54 |
50.9% / 47.4% |
53.4% / 44.4% |
37.3% / 60.4% |
5.7 / 6.8 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
46.6% / 46.3% |
31.0 / 24.1 |
11 |
PIT |
16 – 20 L |
6.1 |
25.0% / 46.8% |
25.0% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 6.7% |
2.7 / 6.3 |
53.5% / 36.4% |
20.9% / 27.3% |
4.2 / 2.4 |
67 / 58 |
46.9% / 51.1% |
43.3% / 44.8% |
44.9% / 49.2% |
3.6 / 5.6 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
64.2% / 19.0% |
32.1 / 26.2 |
12 |
@BUF |
21 – 24 L |
-4.4 |
42.3% / 36.8% |
11.5% / 0.0% |
8.7% / 0.0% |
4.1 / 8.4 |
53.8% / 45.9% |
23.1% / 16.2% |
5.8 / 4.6 |
65 / 56 |
51.9% / 52.4% |
49.2% / 42.9% |
62.8% / 50.5% |
5.1 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
60.0% / 66.1% |
24.6 / 31.5 |
13 |
IND |
6 – 0 W |
2.3 |
44.4% / 41.8% |
11.1% / 5.5% |
0.0% / 1.9% |
4.9 / 4.1 |
33.3% / 18.8% |
33.3% / 25.0% |
2.9 / 2.6 |
54 / 71 |
38.5% / 42.0% |
38.9% / 36.6% |
16.1% / 11.7% |
3.9 / 3.7 |
1.9% / 1.4% |
50.0% / 22.5% |
21.9 / 31.0 |
14 |
@TEN |
9 – 30 L |
-13.6 |
42.6% / 56.0% |
8.5% / 4.0% |
0.0% / 4.2% |
4.1 / 6.5 |
57.1% / 44.1% |
19.0% / 26.5% |
2.9 / 7.8 |
68 / 59 |
57.1% / 51.2% |
47.1% / 49.2% |
34.8% / 60.7% |
3.8 / 7.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
30.9% / 57.6% |
24.3 / 33.5 |