Washington Redskins @

Dallas Cowboys

Thu, Nov 30
5:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 301
Odds: Dallas Cowboys +2, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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Lean – DALLAS (+2) over Washington

Kirk Cousins was mediocre in his first game without pass-catching running back Chris Thompson (9.4 yards per target), throwing for just 5.4 yards per pass play on Thanksgiving and that game against the Giants marked the second time in as many games the Redskins failed to reach 5 yards per play without 5-time Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams in the lineup. However, it looks like Williams will play on Thursday so I expect Washington’s offense to improve, especially considering the current state of the Cowboys defense.

Over the course of Sean Lee’s career, the Dallas defense is about a point better with Lee on the field. This season, however, Lee’s impact is even more pronounced with the Cowboys conceding 92 points the last 3 weeks. Dallas is surrendering 5.8 yards per rush without Lee on the field compared to 3.5 yards per rush with Lee.

The Cowboys offense has scored in single-digits 3 games in a row but it’s not as much about the absence of Ezekiel Elliott as most people think it is. The Dallas ground game gained 4.4 yards per rush in the last 3 weeks without Elliott and I expect them to continue running well against a Redskins rush defense ranked 30th in my metrics. The problem the first two weeks without Elliott was more about the absence of star left tackle Tyron Smith, as the Dallas offensive line gave up 12 sacks to Atlanta and Philadelphia. With Smith back last week the Cowboys only allowed 2 sacks and they’ve allowed fewer than 2 sacks per game with Smith in the lineup. Dallas may have scored only 6 points in last week’s loss to the Chargers but they averaged a decent 5.0 yppl and similar numbers will likely lead to considerably more points this week.

The anti-Dallas sentiment has led to some value on the Cowboys, as my ratings favor Dallas by 1 point, and I’ll lean with Big D at home to sweep the season series against their rival (won 33-19 in Washington).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Redskins
  • Cowboys
WAS
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.0 35.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.2% 44.7%
  • Sack Rate 7.3% 7.3%
  • Int Rate 1.4% 3.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.6% 21.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 50.9% 45.2%
  • NYPP 7.0 6.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.5 26.7
  • RB YPR 3.5 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 21.6% 21.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.8% 48.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 34.9% 39.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.1




Game

  • All Snaps 64.5 62.5
  • Early Down Succ 49.3% 49.0%
  • Succ Rate 45.8% 46.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 47.8% 43.9%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 0.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 28.0
  • Run Ratio 42.5% 42.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.9 29.3
  • Game Control 1.6 -1.6
 
  • Points 23.5 25.1
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