Game Analysis
Lean – DALLAS (+2) over Washington
Kirk Cousins was mediocre in his first game without pass-catching running back Chris Thompson (9.4 yards per target), throwing for just 5.4 yards per pass play on Thanksgiving and that game against the Giants marked the second time in as many games the Redskins failed to reach 5 yards per play without 5-time Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams in the lineup. However, it looks like Williams will play on Thursday so I expect Washington’s offense to improve, especially considering the current state of the Cowboys defense.
Over the course of Sean Lee’s career, the Dallas defense is about a point better with Lee on the field. This season, however, Lee’s impact is even more pronounced with the Cowboys conceding 92 points the last 3 weeks. Dallas is surrendering 5.8 yards per rush without Lee on the field compared to 3.5 yards per rush with Lee.
The Cowboys offense has scored in single-digits 3 games in a row but it’s not as much about the absence of Ezekiel Elliott as most people think it is. The Dallas ground game gained 4.4 yards per rush in the last 3 weeks without Elliott and I expect them to continue running well against a Redskins rush defense ranked 30th in my metrics. The problem the first two weeks without Elliott was more about the absence of star left tackle Tyron Smith, as the Dallas offensive line gave up 12 sacks to Atlanta and Philadelphia. With Smith back last week the Cowboys only allowed 2 sacks and they’ve allowed fewer than 2 sacks per game with Smith in the lineup. Dallas may have scored only 6 points in last week’s loss to the Chargers but they averaged a decent 5.0 yppl and similar numbers will likely lead to considerably more points this week.
The anti-Dallas sentiment has led to some value on the Cowboys, as my ratings favor Dallas by 1 point, and I’ll lean with Big D at home to sweep the season series against their rival (won 33-19 in Washington).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
35.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.2%
44.7%
-
Sack Rate
7.3%
7.3%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.6%
21.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
50.9%
45.2%
-
NYPP
7.0
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.5
26.7
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
21.6%
21.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.8%
48.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.9%
39.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
64.5
62.5
-
Early Down Succ
49.3%
49.0%
-
Succ Rate
45.8%
46.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
47.8%
43.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.5%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
28.0
-
Run Ratio
42.5%
42.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
29.3
-
Game Control
1.6
-1.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.7
37.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.8%
49.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.0%
16.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.3%
39.5%
-
NYPP
6.2
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.0
26.8
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
21.0%
23.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
54.1%
43.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.0%
45.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
62.7
64.2
-
Early Down Succ
52.0%
49.1%
-
Succ Rate
49.7%
46.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.0%
44.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
28.1
-
Run Ratio
46.3%
41.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.0
25.0
-
Game Control
0.9
-0.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
PHI |
17 – 30 L |
-5.1 |
38.6% / 51.2% |
9.1% / 4.9% |
2.5% / 2.6% |
4.5 / 7.3 |
58.8% / 36.0% |
23.5% / 28.0% |
3.8 / 2.4 |
61 / 66 |
49.0% / 44.0% |
44.3% / 45.5% |
38.3% / 37.8% |
4.3 / 5.4 |
4.9% / 1.5% |
27.9% / 37.9% |
26.1 / 31.8 |
2 |
@LA |
27 – 20 W |
4.5 |
48.3% / 39.3% |
6.9% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
5.4 / 8.6 |
46.2% / 59.1% |
17.9% / 13.6% |
5.9 / 4.2 |
68 / 50 |
49.1% / 51.4% |
47.1% / 48.0% |
46.2% / 61.9% |
5.7 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 2.0% |
57.4% / 44.0% |
34.5 / 22.4 |
3 |
OAK |
27 – 10 W |
11.9 |
61.3% / 37.1% |
3.2% / 11.4% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
11.5 / 2.7 |
35.3% / 21.4% |
17.6% / 21.4% |
3.4 / 2.4 |
65 / 49 |
48.0% / 42.4% |
47.7% / 32.7% |
53.2% / 24.8% |
7.3 / 2.6 |
3.1% / 2.0% |
52.3% / 28.6% |
28.7 / 31.7 |
4 |
@KC |
20 – 29 L |
4.3 |
45.8% / 47.5% |
0.0% / 10.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.2 / 6.5 |
51.9% / 58.1% |
14.8% / 19.4% |
4.1 / 5.4 |
51 / 71 |
54.1% / 51.7% |
49.0% / 52.1% |
57.2% / 43.4% |
6.5 / 6.0 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
52.9% / 43.7% |
26.8 / 21.2 |
6 |
SF |
26 – 24 W |
7.0 |
60.5% / 30.0% |
2.6% / 6.0% |
2.7% / 2.1% |
8.6 / 5.0 |
38.2% / 65.0% |
29.4% / 25.0% |
2.8 / 4.3 |
72 / 70 |
51.8% / 41.2% |
50.0% / 40.0% |
43.6% / 50.4% |
5.8 / 4.8 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
47.2% / 28.6% |
26.9 / 32.6 |
7 |
@PHI |
24 – 34 L |
-4.7 |
56.8% / 53.6% |
9.1% / 10.7% |
2.5% / 4.0% |
6.1 / 8.7 |
47.4% / 29.4% |
15.8% / 23.5% |
4.0 / 3.8 |
63 / 62 |
62.5% / 39.6% |
54.0% / 40.3% |
46.4% / 63.4% |
5.5 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.2% / 54.8% |
27.7 / 32.5 |
8 |
DAL |
19 – 33 L |
-2.5 |
39.5% / 37.5% |
9.3% / 8.3% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 5.8 |
40.0% / 61.5% |
26.7% / 20.5% |
3.3 / 4.3 |
58 / 63 |
40.9% / 57.4% |
39.7% / 52.4% |
50.5% / 24.1% |
4.9 / 4.9 |
3.4% / 1.6% |
25.9% / 61.9% |
29.7 / 39.1 |
9 |
@SEA |
17 – 14 W |
2.3 |
40.5% / 43.5% |
16.2% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 4.5% |
5.2 / 6.3 |
39.1% / 57.1% |
34.8% / 14.3% |
2.2 / 5.3 |
60 / 74 |
42.6% / 51.7% |
40.0% / 48.6% |
51.6% / 48.5% |
4.1 / 5.9 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
38.3% / 37.8% |
27.8 / 30.7 |
10 |
MIN |
30 – 38 L |
-6.2 |
45.7% / 65.5% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
2.2% / 6.9% |
6.8 / 10.5 |
46.4% / 51.5% |
21.4% / 30.3% |
2.9 / 3.2 |
74 / 62 |
49.1% / 60.9% |
45.9% / 58.1% |
43.0% / 52.2% |
5.3 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.8% / 53.2% |
34.1 / 34.6 |
11 |
@NO |
31 – 34 L |
5.7 |
47.1% / 57.1% |
5.9% / 4.8% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
8.8 / 8.9 |
51.5% / 60.9% |
12.1% / 17.4% |
4.7 / 7.0 |
67 / 65 |
50.9% / 62.3% |
49.3% / 58.5% |
47.8% / 54.2% |
6.8 / 8.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 35.4% |
23.4 / 24.3 |
12 |
NYG |
20 – 10 W |
0.8 |
35.1% / 29.0% |
16.2% / 12.9% |
3.2% / 3.7% |
5.4 / 2.8 |
38.2% / 32.0% |
23.5% / 20.0% |
3.6 / 3.4 |
71 / 56 |
44.0% / 36.8% |
36.6% / 30.4% |
47.7% / 22.2% |
4.6 / 3.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.9% / 44.6% |
32.4 / 21.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
NYG |
19 – 3 W |
9.1 |
48.7% / 48.8% |
2.6% / 7.3% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
6.7 / 4.8 |
54.8% / 23.1% |
19.4% / 7.7% |
4.2 / 2.8 |
70 / 54 |
50.9% / 46.2% |
51.4% / 42.6% |
37.0% / 27.8% |
5.6 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.3% / 24.1% |
29.4 / 16.0 |
2 |
@DEN |
17 – 42 L |
-11.9 |
42.3% / 64.7% |
3.8% / 5.9% |
4.0% / 3.1% |
4.4 / 5.9 |
28.6% / 52.5% |
42.9% / 17.5% |
2.9 / 4.5 |
66 / 74 |
44.7% / 59.6% |
39.4% / 58.1% |
14.6% / 30.7% |
4.1 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
21.2% / 54.1% |
37.6 / 26.9 |
3 |
@ARI |
28 – 17 W |
-0.5 |
42.1% / 38.9% |
5.3% / 11.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.2 / 5.2 |
33.3% / 33.3% |
33.3% / 33.3% |
3.7 / 2.3 |
46 / 75 |
42.9% / 35.7% |
37.0% / 37.3% |
62.8% / 51.5% |
6.0 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
58.7% / 28.0% |
29.4 / 21.6 |
4 |
LA |
30 – 35 L |
2.3 |
35.1% / 48.6% |
5.4% / 2.7% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 6.6 |
55.6% / 65.6% |
14.8% / 21.9% |
7.0 / 5.3 |
64 / 69 |
41.7% / 63.0% |
43.8% / 56.5% |
52.3% / 51.6% |
6.9 / 6.0 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
42.2% / 46.4% |
22.4 / 34.8 |
5 |
GB |
31 – 35 L |
4.2 |
59.5% / 51.5% |
2.7% / 12.1% |
2.8% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 5.5 |
60.0% / 64.0% |
14.3% / 12.0% |
4.7 / 6.4 |
72 / 58 |
57.9% / 58.0% |
59.7% / 56.9% |
28.7% / 43.3% |
5.7 / 5.9 |
2.8% / 1.7% |
48.6% / 43.1% |
25.7 / 22.3 |
7 |
@SF |
40 – 10 W |
20.1 |
51.9% / 39.5% |
0.0% / 11.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.7 / 4.3 |
68.9% / 59.1% |
11.1% / 27.3% |
5.9 / 4.7 |
72 / 65 |
66.7% / 48.0% |
62.5% / 46.2% |
57.0% / 40.7% |
7.0 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 4.6% |
62.5% / 33.8% |
34.1 / 23.0 |
8 |
@WAS |
33 – 19 W |
2.5 |
37.5% / 39.5% |
8.3% / 9.3% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
5.8 / 5.5 |
61.5% / 40.0% |
20.5% / 26.7% |
4.3 / 3.3 |
63 / 58 |
57.4% / 40.9% |
52.4% / 39.7% |
24.1% / 50.5% |
4.9 / 4.9 |
1.6% / 3.4% |
61.9% / 25.9% |
39.1 / 29.7 |
9 |
KC |
28 – 17 W |
4.3 |
52.9% / 50.0% |
2.9% / 5.6% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
7.2 / 7.1 |
64.5% / 42.1% |
12.9% / 31.6% |
4.2 / 3.6 |
65 / 55 |
58.5% / 51.2% |
58.5% / 47.3% |
42.4% / 40.6% |
5.8 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.7% / 34.5% |
26.8 / 22.9 |
10 |
@ATL |
7 – 27 L |
-4.8 |
40.5% / 63.3% |
21.6% / 3.3% |
0.0% / 3.4% |
3.4 / 6.8 |
45.5% / 29.4% |
22.7% / 44.1% |
4.9 / 3.9 |
59 / 64 |
42.6% / 44.9% |
42.4% / 45.3% |
55.4% / 46.7% |
3.9 / 5.3 |
3.4% / 0.0% |
37.3% / 53.1% |
33.3 / 29.9 |
11 |
PHI |
9 – 37 L |
-8.3 |
30.6% / 44.4% |
11.1% / 0.0% |
9.4% / 0.0% |
3.1 / 6.2 |
42.9% / 44.4% |
28.6% / 16.7% |
4.0 / 6.1 |
64 / 63 |
42.6% / 51.2% |
35.9% / 44.4% |
28.8% / 52.1% |
3.5 / 6.1 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
43.8% / 57.1% |
28.9 / 27.3 |
12 |
LAC |
6 – 28 L |
-6.7 |
51.7% / 57.6% |
6.9% / 0.0% |
7.4% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 13.2 |
80.0% / 26.3% |
10.0% / 18.4% |
4.0 / 2.2 |
49 / 71 |
65.8% / 41.7% |
63.3% / 40.8% |
15.4% / 53.2% |
5.0 / 7.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.8% / 53.5% |
23.3 / 20.6 |