Game Analysis
Dem Boyz are allowed to be called whatever they wish right now, as they are 9-1 SU. More importantly,they are 9-1 ATS, sitting atop the NFC East and are the insurance policy of the NFL… covering everything in sight. To understand why they continue to cover, we are reminded of one of the greatest ATS teams of the 2000s …the 2004 San Diego Super Chargers who were 93% ATS (13-1-2). Like the 2016 Cowboys, they had an unknown commodity at QB (Drew Brees was in his 4th year, coming off a 2-9 season), a powerful running attack (LaDanian Tomlinson had 339 carries) and an unknown yet overachieving defense (led by… Steve Foley and Donnie Edwards). Right or wrong, like the 2004 Super Chargers, the markets are reluctant to believe that a team with a relatively unproven QB and bad defense will sustain excellence. Therein lies the opportunity for Dallas to continually be undervalued as they have not been more than a TD favorite all year, just like San Diego was never more than a TD favorite in 2004, outside of one game against the seemingly always hapless Browns.
This NFC East showdown will feature Kirk Cousins and the #5 ranked passing offense, averaging 7.6 NYPP, going against a Cowboys defense that has been, on all measures, mediocre to bad. However, Dallas has been able to win games, not through turnovers as they are a meager +3 in turnover differential, but with their #1 ranked grinding offense, which boasts a 54.3% success rate. They will be going up against a Washington defense that is ranked 31st in success rate, allowing 51.2%. The Dallas defense, as bad as it is, is able to stay off the field averaging 8 plays less than the offense per game leading to the 10th fewest points allowed at 18.7. The advanced stats model sees Dem Boyz continuing to cover by controlling the clock, so Dallas (-6.5) and Under (51.5) are Strong Opinions.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.6
39.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.3%
49.4%
-
Sack Rate
3.8%
7.4%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
1.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.3%
14.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.1%
40.9%
-
NYPP
7.6
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.4
24.7
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
18.3%
22.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.4%
54.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.2%
42.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
66.0
64.2
-
Early Down Succ
54.3%
53.1%
-
Succ Rate
51.4%
51.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.4%
42.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.4
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
28.2
-
Run Ratio
39.8%
38.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.3
26.4
-
Game Control
0.3
-0.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.0
39.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
56.1%
50.4%
-
Sack Rate
4.2%
5.0%
-
Int Rate
0.6%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.3%
16.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.7%
31.2%
-
NYPP
8.0
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
34.8
20.1
-
RB YPR
4.5
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
17.6%
27.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.0%
48.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.0%
47.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
67.8
59.8
-
Early Down Succ
57.3%
52.5%
-
Succ Rate
54.3%
50.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.6%
34.9%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.0
27.0
-
Run Ratio
51.3%
33.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.1
26.6
-
Game Control
5.3
-5.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
PIT |
16 – 38 L |
-6.2 |
48.8% /
60.5% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
4.7% /
2.7% |
7.7 /
7.6 |
58.3% /
65.6% |
25.0% /
12.5% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
55 /
70 |
58.1% /
64.7% |
50.9% /
62.9% |
25.0% /
59.2% |
7.0 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
21.8% /
45.7% |
30.1 /
27.3 |
| 2 |
DAL |
23 – 27 L |
-1.7 |
51.1% /
52.9% |
4.3% /
11.8% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
8.2 |
58.8% /
50.0% |
17.6% /
26.7% |
4.8 /
3.4 |
64 /
64 |
56.9% /
51.0% |
53.1% /
51.6% |
49.5% /
33.4% |
6.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
26.6% /
46.9% |
31.0 /
27.7 |
| 3 |
@NYG |
29 – 27 W |
-3.7 |
45.9% /
52.5% |
5.4% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
8.5 /
8.4 |
37.5% /
47.6% |
15.6% /
19.0% |
2.9 /
5.7 |
69 /
61 |
43.8% /
51.9% |
42.0% /
50.8% |
56.0% /
47.3% |
5.9 /
7.5 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
46.4% /
34.4% |
35.9 /
28.5 |
| 4 |
CLE |
31 – 20 W |
3.5 |
56.7% /
55.0% |
10.0% /
2.5% |
3.7% /
2.6% |
5.2 /
5.4 |
61.5% /
57.1% |
23.1% /
21.4% |
5.6 /
5.8 |
56 /
68 |
60.4% /
54.5% |
58.9% /
55.9% |
45.2% /
27.6% |
5.4 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
46.4% /
41.2% |
31.9 /
27.6 |
| 5 |
@BAL |
16 – 10 W |
-0.1 |
61.0% /
36.0% |
2.4% /
6.0% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
3.8 |
33.3% /
57.9% |
23.8% /
31.6% |
2.9 /
6.2 |
62 /
69 |
60.9% /
49.0% |
51.6% /
42.0% |
31.8% /
24.2% |
5.0 /
4.4 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
33.9% /
27.5% |
24.5 /
26.2 |
| 6 |
PHI |
27 – 20 W |
5.8 |
41.2% /
29.6% |
0.0% /
18.5% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
5.4 |
47.1% /
50.0% |
26.5% /
22.7% |
6.8 /
4.3 |
68 /
49 |
43.4% /
42.9% |
44.1% /
38.8% |
63.4% /
59.2% |
7.3 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
44.9% |
20.5 /
24.0 |
| 7 |
@DET |
17 – 20 L |
-2.7 |
56.1% /
50.0% |
4.9% /
9.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
7.8 |
55.2% /
52.6% |
10.3% /
15.8% |
4.6 /
4.9 |
70 /
51 |
54.5% /
54.8% |
55.7% /
51.0% |
33.3% /
51.2% |
6.0 /
6.7 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
37.3% |
25.8 /
25.3 |
| 8 |
@CIN |
27 – 27 T |
-0.1 |
50.9% /
48.9% |
1.8% /
6.7% |
1.8% /
2.4% |
7.8 /
5.8 |
50.0% /
63.9% |
18.8% /
8.3% |
3.2 /
4.2 |
89 /
81 |
54.4% /
54.5% |
50.6% /
55.6% |
40.8% /
24.1% |
6.1 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
36.0% /
44.4% |
25.0 /
26.3 |
| 10 |
MIN |
26 – 20 W |
3.4 |
58.8% /
60.5% |
2.9% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
7.6 /
6.6 |
51.7% /
42.9% |
6.9% /
42.9% |
4.4 /
2.2 |
63 /
64 |
59.2% /
57.7% |
55.6% /
54.7% |
28.3% /
45.6% |
6.2 /
5.2 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
46.0% /
32.8% |
28.2 /
28.5 |
| 11 |
GB |
42 – 24 W |
5.0 |
62.5% /
47.8% |
6.3% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
11.4 /
7.4 |
40.6% /
52.6% |
15.6% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
4.4 |
64 /
65 |
51.1% /
50.0% |
51.6% /
49.2% |
60.9% /
54.2% |
8.1 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
50.0% /
29.2% |
30.5 /
22.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYG |
19 – 20 L |
1.8 |
46.5% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
5.3 /
6.8 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
23.3% /
16.7% |
3.4 /
4.7 |
73 /
54 |
44.6% /
50.0% |
47.9% /
50.0% |
13.7% /
43.7% |
4.5 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.1% /
44.4% |
28.3 /
24.3 |
| 2 |
@WAS |
27 – 23 W |
1.7 |
52.9% /
51.1% |
11.8% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
8.2 /
7.4 |
50.0% /
58.8% |
26.7% /
17.6% |
3.4 /
4.8 |
64 /
64 |
51.0% /
56.9% |
51.6% /
53.1% |
33.4% /
49.5% |
5.9 /
6.8 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
46.9% /
26.6% |
27.7 /
31.0 |
| 3 |
CHI |
31 – 17 W |
13.6 |
62.5% /
53.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.3 /
6.7 |
73.2% /
26.7% |
12.2% /
46.7% |
4.9 /
4.9 |
65 /
62 |
73.6% /
51.0% |
69.2% /
46.8% |
33.8% /
45.4% |
6.9 /
6.3 |
1.5% /
3.2% |
63.1% /
24.2% |
30.7 /
26.3 |
| 4 |
@SF |
24 – 17 W |
-3.0 |
58.8% /
45.8% |
5.9% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
6.9 /
7.9 |
54.3% /
50.0% |
6.5% /
33.3% |
4.3 /
3.6 |
80 /
54 |
68.4% /
48.6% |
56.3% /
48.1% |
33.2% /
47.0% |
5.4 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.5% /
55.6% |
28.0 /
25.4 |
| 5 |
CIN |
28 – 14 W |
17.7 |
56.0% /
51.1% |
4.0% /
8.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
5.5 |
41.2% /
52.6% |
14.7% /
5.3% |
5.4 /
5.1 |
59 /
64 |
55.8% /
52.9% |
47.5% /
51.6% |
48.3% /
23.5% |
6.9 /
5.4 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
57.6% /
29.7% |
26.2 /
22.0 |
| 6 |
@GB |
30 – 16 W |
8.6 |
55.2% /
53.5% |
6.9% /
2.3% |
3.7% /
2.4% |
8.0 /
6.8 |
54.5% /
37.5% |
15.2% /
37.5% |
5.8 /
3.3 |
62 /
67 |
59.2% /
45.3% |
54.8% /
47.8% |
50.5% /
22.0% |
6.8 /
5.6 |
1.6% /
4.5% |
53.2% /
35.8% |
31.4 /
33.1 |
| 8 |
PHI |
29 – 23 W |
-1.5 |
38.1% /
42.6% |
4.8% /
6.4% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
4.1 |
50.0% /
62.5% |
32.4% /
33.3% |
5.5 /
4.0 |
76 /
71 |
45.0% /
51.8% |
43.4% /
49.3% |
62.8% /
16.2% |
6.1 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
44.7% /
33.8% |
26.7 /
30.7 |
| 9 |
@CLE |
35 – 10 W |
13.5 |
67.9% /
45.2% |
0.0% /
12.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
5.7 |
48.9% /
30.8% |
13.3% /
23.1% |
3.8 /
3.5 |
73 /
44 |
58.5% /
47.1% |
56.2% /
40.9% |
40.1% /
19.8% |
5.8 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
61.6% /
29.5% |
28.6 /
21.4 |
| 10 |
@PIT |
35 – 30 W |
-1.1 |
52.9% /
61.7% |
5.9% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
8.5 |
68.0% /
47.4% |
12.0% /
26.3% |
5.1 /
2.5 |
59 /
66 |
60.9% /
60.7% |
59.3% /
57.6% |
42.4% /
44.4% |
7.2 /
6.8 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
42.4% /
28.8% |
28.1 /
31.1 |
| 11 |
BAL |
27 – 17 W |
1.5 |
70.3% /
50.0% |
2.7% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.1 /
7.4 |
40.0% /
68.8% |
20.0% /
31.3% |
3.9 /
6.3 |
67 /
52 |
56.4% /
60.5% |
56.7% /
55.8% |
27.6% /
37.5% |
6.2 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.8% /
30.8% |
25.0 /
21.2 |
Washington Redskins
@ 
Dallas Cowboys