Washington Redskins @ Arizona Cardinals Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

ARIZONA (-1) vs Washington

The Cardinals bring in a new staff this season with Steve Wilks at Head Coach and Al Holcomb at defensive coordinator. Wilks was the DC in Carolina last year and Holcomb was the Linebacker Coach. Their system with the Panthers relied on the talent of LB Luke Kuechley but now with Arizona they must work with one of the worst linebacker units in the NFL. Last season, Keuchley had the league’s second-best run stop percentage and the Cardinals will likely be relying on Deone Bucannon to play his role. Bucannon finished 50^th out of 68 qualifying linebackers in the same statistic. Arizona’s defense ranked 21^st last year in our numbers after finishing top-10 the previous two seasons and we expect them to continue dropping off in 2018 as they search for the right personnel for their scheme.

The Cardinals’ offense will go through some drastic changes as well, switching from the Bruce Arians vertical attack to a much more conservative approach with new offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. The Sam Bradford signing makes sense, as his short to intermediate passing style gels nicely with McCoy and veteran WR Larry Fitzgerald, who finished 9th last season in yards per route run from the slot. The Cardinals will get star running back David Johnson and their two best offensive linemen, Mike Iupati and D.J. Humphries, back after all three missed significant time last year. Arizona averaged just 3.5 yards per rush in 2017, which ranked 2^nd from the bottom. I expect the ground game to improve and Johnson’s pass-catching ability should work well in the new system.

Alex Smith had a career year in 2017, finishing 5th in quarterback efficiency according to our numbers. The Redskins would’ve been a touchdown better per game if you replaced Kirk Cousin’s 2017 production with new quarterback Alex Smith’s numbers. However, it obviously isn’t that simple as Smith benefited from better skill position players and the Andy Reid/Matt Nagy offensive scheme while Cousins had just lost Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, and Sean McVay. Washington’s offense also finished with the 2nd-most adjusted games lost to injury via Football Outsiders. The difference between the two quarterbacks last season was stark, but also mostly due to outside factors, and our quarterback model projects Cousins and Smith as equals that are separated by just 0.07 points per game.

Alex Smith had his highest deep ball passing rate in a decade last year, throwing 12.3% of his passes more than 20 yards downfield. The Redskins clearly intend to continue this new vertical style with the signing of Paul Richardson, whose 8 deep pass receptions last season ranked 14th in the NFL. Chris Thompson will also be dangerous after finishing 1st among running backs and 6th overall last season in points added per target.

Washington’s defense was notably unbalanced in 2017, ranking 6th against the pass but last in rush success rate allowed. The rush defense should improve after drafting run-stopper Da’Ron Payne in the first round, but the pass defense will almost certainly decline with the loss of CB Bashaud Breeland, who ranked 9th in yards allowed per cover snap, and Kendall Fuller, who was traded after ranking 3^rd in yards allowed per cover snap in the slot.

My ratings don’t show value for either the side or total in this game.

Team Stats
Game Log

Redskins
Cardinals

WAS

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.3 35.6
Succ Pass Plays 45.9% 40.4%
Sack Rate 6.8% 7.4%
Int Rate 2.2% 3.0%
Deep Pass Rate 16.2% 18.8%
Big Pass Yards 46.7% 44.3%
NYPP 6.6 6.1

Rush

Rush Plays 25.7 30.1
RB YPR 3.3 4.2
Stuff Rate 22.3% 18.8%
Succ Rush Plays 42.1% 49.3%
Big Rush Yards 31.9% 38.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.4 4.4

Game

All Snaps 62.0 65.7
Early Down Succ 48.0% 47.4%
Succ Rate 43.9% 44.4%
Big Yards Rate 43.9% 43.2%
Yards Per Play 5.2 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.7 27.9
Run Ratio 41.2% 45.7%
Starting Field Pos 28.8 30.2
Game Control -0.1 0.1

Points 21.4 24.3

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.5 37.4
Succ Pass Plays 41.8% 44.3%
Sack Rate 7.9% 5.9%
Int Rate 3.2% 2.5%
Deep Pass Rate 20.5% 16.1%
Big Pass Yards 40.1% 37.4%
NYPP 5.8 6.1

Rush

Rush Plays 26.5 25.9
RB YPR 3.1 3.1
Stuff Rate 25.1% 27.2%
Succ Rush Plays 37.0% 38.1%
Big Rush Yards 24.4% 38.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.1 3.4

Game

All Snaps 67.0 63.3
Early Down Succ 42.8% 44.2%
Succ Rate 40.1% 41.4%
Big Yards Rate 36.0% 38.9%
Yards Per Play 4.7 4.9
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 28.3
Run Ratio 39.2% 41.3%
Starting Field Pos 29.3 28.4
Game Control -0.9 0.9

Points 18.4 22.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PHI	17 – 30 L	-5.1	38.6% / 51.2%	9.1% / 4.9%	2.5% / 2.6%	4.5 / 7.3	58.8% / 36.0%	23.5% / 28.0%	3.8 / 2.4	61 / 66	49.0% / 44.0%	44.3% / 45.5%	38.3% / 37.8%	4.3 / 5.4	4.9% / 1.5%	27.9% / 37.9%	26.1 / 31.8
2	@LA	27 – 20 W	4.5	48.3% / 39.3%	6.9% / 7.1%	0.0% / 3.8%	5.4 / 8.6	46.2% / 59.1%	17.9% / 13.6%	5.9 / 4.2	68 / 50	49.1% / 51.4%	47.1% / 48.0%	46.2% / 61.9%	5.7 / 6.7	0.0% / 2.0%	57.4% / 44.0%	34.5 / 22.4
3	OAK	27 – 10 W	11.9	61.3% / 37.1%	3.2% / 11.4%	0.0% / 6.5%	11.5 / 2.7	35.3% / 21.4%	17.6% / 21.4%	3.4 / 2.4	65 / 49	48.0% / 42.4%	47.7% / 32.7%	53.2% / 24.8%	7.3 / 2.6	3.1% / 2.0%	52.3% / 28.6%	28.7 / 31.7
4	@KC	20 – 29 L	4.3	45.8% / 47.5%	0.0% / 10.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.2 / 6.5	51.9% / 58.1%	14.8% / 19.4%	4.1 / 5.4	51 / 71	54.1% / 51.7%	49.0% / 52.1%	57.2% / 43.4%	6.5 / 6.0	2.0% / 0.0%	52.9% / 43.7%	26.8 / 21.2
6	SF	26 – 24 W	7.0	60.5% / 30.0%	2.6% / 6.0%	2.7% / 2.1%	8.6 / 5.0	38.2% / 65.0%	29.4% / 25.0%	2.8 / 4.3	72 / 70	51.8% / 41.2%	50.0% / 40.0%	43.6% / 50.4%	5.8 / 4.8	1.4% / 0.0%	47.2% / 28.6%	26.9 / 32.6
7	@PHI	24 – 34 L	-4.7	56.8% / 53.6%	9.1% / 10.7%	2.5% / 4.0%	6.1 / 8.7	47.4% / 29.4%	15.8% / 23.5%	4.0 / 3.8	63 / 62	62.5% / 39.6%	54.0% / 40.3%	46.4% / 63.4%	5.5 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	30.2% / 54.8%	27.7 / 32.5
8	DAL	19 – 33 L	-2.5	39.5% / 37.5%	9.3% / 8.3%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.5 / 5.8	40.0% / 61.5%	26.7% / 20.5%	3.3 / 4.3	58 / 63	40.9% / 57.4%	39.7% / 52.4%	50.5% / 24.1%	4.9 / 4.9	3.4% / 1.6%	25.9% / 61.9%	29.7 / 39.1
9	@SEA	17 – 14 W	2.3	40.5% / 43.5%	16.2% / 4.3%	0.0% / 4.5%	5.2 / 6.3	39.1% / 57.1%	34.8% / 14.3%	2.2 / 5.3	60 / 74	42.6% / 51.7%	40.0% / 48.6%	51.6% / 48.5%	4.1 / 5.9	1.7% / 0.0%	38.3% / 37.8%	27.8 / 30.7
10	MIN	30 – 38 L	-6.2	45.7% / 65.5%	2.2% / 0.0%	2.2% / 6.9%	6.8 / 10.5	46.4% / 51.5%	21.4% / 30.3%	2.9 / 3.2	74 / 62	49.1% / 60.9%	45.9% / 58.1%	43.0% / 52.2%	5.3 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	37.8% / 53.2%	34.1 / 34.6
11	@NO	31 – 34 L	5.7	47.1% / 57.1%	5.9% / 4.8%	0.0% / 2.5%	8.8 / 8.9	51.5% / 60.9%	12.1% / 17.4%	4.7 / 7.0	67 / 65	50.9% / 62.3%	49.3% / 58.5%	47.8% / 54.2%	6.8 / 8.2	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 35.4%	23.4 / 24.3
12	NYG	20 – 10 W	0.8	35.1% / 29.0%	16.2% / 12.9%	3.2% / 3.7%	5.4 / 2.8	38.2% / 32.0%	23.5% / 20.0%	3.6 / 3.4	71 / 56	44.0% / 36.8%	36.6% / 30.4%	47.7% / 22.2%	4.6 / 3.1	0.0% / 0.0%	47.9% / 44.6%	32.4 / 21.8
13	@DAL	14 – 38 L	-8.3	46.3% / 34.8%	9.8% / 4.3%	5.4% / 0.0%	5.5 / 4.0	42.1% / 52.4%	26.3% / 16.7%	2.9 / 4.3	60 / 65	46.7% / 46.0%	45.0% / 46.2%	32.9% / 26.5%	4.7 / 4.2	3.3% / 0.0%	31.7% / 64.6%	24.5 / 36.2
14	@LAC	13 – 30 L	-15.3	37.9% / 41.7%	6.9% / 5.6%	3.7% / 2.9%	4.7 / 8.7	38.1% / 45.7%	19.0% / 11.4%	3.1 / 5.0	50 / 71	44.4% / 44.6%	38.0% / 43.7%	30.3% / 58.6%	4.0 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	42.0% / 49.3%	21.8 / 31.5
15	ARI	20 – 15 W	5.6	51.9% / 24.4%	3.7% / 11.1%	0.0% / 2.5%	6.9 / 3.2	33.3% / 61.8%	28.6% / 14.7%	1.5 / 4.1	48 / 79	54.1% / 45.6%	43.8% / 40.5%	37.9% / 44.8%	4.6 / 3.6	2.1% / 1.3%	43.8% / 43.0%	31.8 / 33.0
16	DEN	27 – 11 W	6.1	51.4% / 24.4%	0.0% / 9.8%	2.7% / 2.7%	8.1 / 4.2	29.0% / 58.6%	25.8% / 13.8%	2.9 / 5.5	68 / 70	45.1% / 41.2%	41.2% / 38.6%	52.1% / 38.8%	5.7 / 4.7	1.5% / 2.9%	45.6% / 41.4%	32.6 / 28.5
17	@NYG	10 – 18 L	-7.3	27.5% / 30.0%	7.5% / 6.7%	8.1% / 3.6%	3.4 / 4.0	37.5% / 37.5%	18.8% / 10.4%	3.8 / 5.5	56 / 78	35.7% / 41.1%	30.4% / 34.6%	24.4% / 38.8%	3.5 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	28.6% / 61.5%	31.6 / 30.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DET	23 – 35 L	2.7	42.9% / 47.6%	2.0% / 2.4%	6.3% / 2.4%	5.4 / 6.8	38.9% / 35.7%	16.7% / 21.4%	2.5 / 3.0	67 / 70	41.2% / 42.3%	41.8% / 42.9%	29.4% / 27.4%	4.6 / 5.3	1.5% / 0.0%	26.9% / 40.0%	28.5 / 36.6
2	@IND	16 – 13 W	-6.3	40.0% / 41.5%	10.0% / 9.8%	2.8% / 2.7%	7.7 / 4.6	34.6% / 34.5%	11.5% / 24.1%	3.2 / 2.6	66 / 70	39.6% / 36.5%	37.9% / 38.6%	63.6% / 16.5%	5.9 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.4% / 41.4%	29.6 / 24.5
3	DAL	17 – 28 L	0.5	38.9% / 42.1%	11.1% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.2 / 9.2	33.3% / 33.3%	33.3% / 33.3%	2.3 / 3.7	75 / 46	35.7% / 42.9%	37.3% / 37.0%	51.5% / 62.8%	4.4 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	28.0% / 58.7%	21.6 / 29.4
4	SF	18 – 15 W	-1.4	49.1% / 30.8%	10.5% / 5.8%	2.0% / 2.0%	5.6 / 4.0	39.1% / 37.0%	30.4% / 25.9%	2.3 / 3.5	80 / 79	51.6% / 33.9%	46.3% / 32.9%	17.9% / 27.9%	4.6 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	28.8% / 34.2%	27.9 / 22.3
5	@PHI	7 – 34 L	-16.7	41.3% / 48.4%	4.3% / 3.2%	0.0% / 3.3%	6.0 / 9.6	21.4% / 28.6%	35.7% / 22.9%	2.2 / 3.5	60 / 66	37.2% / 33.3%	36.7% / 37.9%	20.2% / 52.3%	5.1 / 6.4	1.7% / 0.0%	23.3% / 53.0%	19.3 / 34.1
6	TB	38 – 33 W	18.1	62.5% / 53.5%	8.3% / 2.3%	4.5% / 4.8%	11.3 / 8.0	38.5% / 23.8%	20.5% / 38.1%	4.2 / 3.2	63 / 64	56.5% / 40.4%	47.6% / 43.8%	53.0% / 51.9%	6.9 / 6.5	1.6% / 0.0%	61.9% / 32.8%	33.4 / 28.3
7	@LA	0 – 33 L	-16.0	28.6% / 42.1%	8.6% / 2.6%	6.3% / 2.7%	4.8 / 6.0	25.0% / 48.8%	41.7% / 14.6%	2.1 / 4.8	47 / 79	27.3% / 39.7%	27.7% / 45.6%	35.8% / 29.1%	4.1 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	25.5% / 51.9%	26.0 / 33.8
9	@SF	20 – 10 W	7.3	40.0% / 32.1%	0.0% / 8.9%	3.3% / 2.0%	6.7 / 4.8	34.8% / 58.8%	13.0% / 17.6%	3.7 / 3.7	76 / 73	38.9% / 40.7%	36.8% / 38.4%	45.8% / 30.7%	4.9 / 4.5	1.3% / 1.4%	60.5% / 23.3%	34.4 / 23.5
10	SEA	16 – 22 L	-5.5	42.9% / 47.2%	4.1% / 13.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.2 / 5.9	20.8% / 20.8%	41.7% / 33.3%	1.4 / 3.2	73 / 60	34.5% / 42.2%	35.6% / 36.7%	6.9% / 51.0%	4.0 / 4.8	1.4% / 0.0%	32.9% / 40.0%	27.7 / 27.1
11	@HOU	21 – 31 L	-1.8	50.0% / 54.5%	5.6% / 3.0%	5.9% / 3.1%	6.8 / 6.8	33.3% / 47.1%	38.9% / 20.6%	2.7 / 3.9	54 / 67	48.8% / 50.0%	44.4% / 50.7%	42.5% / 49.6%	5.4 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.5%	33.3% / 50.7%	36.3 / 22.7
12	JAC	27 – 24 W	5.2	43.6% / 40.0%	2.6% / 8.6%	2.6% / 3.1%	6.1 / 3.7	40.6% / 36.4%	21.9% / 31.8%	3.4 / 4.1	71 / 57	44.2% / 45.5%	42.3% / 38.6%	33.9% / 31.5%	4.9 / 3.8	1.4% / 3.5%	45.1% / 38.6%	30.9 / 25.5
13	LA	16 – 32 L	-9.9	39.5% / 50.0%	15.8% / 3.1%	6.3% / 3.2%	5.1 / 6.7	50.0% / 50.0%	8.3% / 25.0%	4.9 / 3.8	62 / 56	42.6% / 54.5%	43.5% / 50.0%	39.1% / 41.6%	5.0 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	38.7% / 42.9%	27.7 / 34.9
14	TEN	12 – 7 W	-1.6	44.1% / 35.3%	23.5% / 8.8%	0.0% / 6.5%	3.7 / 4.1	38.7% / 50.0%	22.6% / 36.4%	4.5 / 3.0	65 / 56	51.1% / 45.2%	41.5% / 41.1%	47.9% / 25.0%	4.0 / 3.6	0.0% / 0.0%	47.7% / 39.3%	35.6 / 24.5
15	@WAS	15 – 20 L	-5.6	24.4% / 51.9%	11.1% / 3.7%	2.5% / 0.0%	3.2 / 6.9	61.8% / 33.3%	14.7% / 28.6%	4.1 / 1.5	79 / 48	45.6% / 54.1%	40.5% / 43.8%	44.8% / 37.9%	3.6 / 4.6	1.3% / 2.1%	43.0% / 43.8%	33.0 / 31.8
16	NYG	23 – 0 W	10.7	43.2% / 51.1%	5.4% / 4.3%	5.7% / 4.4%	5.8 / 5.3	25.0% / 30.0%	35.7% / 25.0%	2.7 / 2.2	65 / 67	36.7% / 57.1%	35.4% / 44.8%	29.3% / 23.5%	4.5 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.5%	43.1% / 29.9%	27.0 / 27.6
17	@SEA	26 – 24 W	5.6	37.1% / 40.6%	2.9% / 9.4%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.1 / 6.1	55.9% / 40.9%	14.7% / 36.4%	3.4 / 4.6	69 / 54	52.8% / 48.8%	46.4% / 40.7%	13.8% / 64.2%	3.8 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 40.7%	29.7 / 27.7

Washington Redskins @

Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Sep 9

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis