Game Analysis
Lean – PHILADELPHIA (+3.5/+4) over Washington
It looks like Washington will have their two most important players on offense back this week in QB Alex Smith and WR Terry McLaurin with a playoff berth on the line. McLaurin accounts for 35% of Washington’s receiving yardage and 23% of the receptions. McLaurin likely won’t be 100% playing through a high-ankle sprain but he will have a favorable matchup against Eagles CB Michael Jacquet, who has allowed 16 receptions for 310 yards and two touchdowns in two games as a starter. Philly’s Pro Bowl interior defender Fletcher Cox (12th in pass rushing efficiency) is out and he is worth a point by our numbers. Dallas went on a 31-3 scoring run after Cox picked up a stinger in the second quarter last week and left the game.
Jalen Hurts has added a spark to the Eagles but he is averaging more turnover-worthy plays per game (3.7) since taking over as the starter than Carson Wentz was before being benched (2.2). Hurts will be under tremendous pressure on Sunday night as Philadelphia’s offense will be without both starting tackles and backup Jordan Mailata. Chase Young had five pressures last week that resulted in two takeaways and he is unlikely to slow down across from backup Brett Toth. The Eagles have targeted tight ends more than any team in the NFL, but Washington’s defense is allowing just 6.8 yards per target to opposing TEs and Dallas Goedert is out with an ankle injury.
Our model favors Washington by 2.8 points, with a predicted total of 44.9 points, and Philadelphia applies to a 72-28-3 ATS division revenge situation while Washington applies to a 27-67-4 ATS late-season road favorite angle. Also, teams in “must win” situations are just 66-100-5 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season against teams that have already been eliminated from playoff contention, so the fact that Washington needs to win is no reason to bet them.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.1
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.9%
43.2%
-
Sack Rate
7.9%
8.0%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
3.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.9%
18.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.2%
36.7%
-
NYPP
5.4
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.9
26.6
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
18.1%
24.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.8%
46.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.2%
39.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
65.9
62.6
-
Early Down Succ
46.8%
47.8%
-
Succ Rate
44.8%
44.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.2%
40.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.3
29.0
-
Run Ratio
37.7%
43.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.9
29.6
-
Game Control
-4.1
4.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.8
36.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.3%
47.9%
-
Sack Rate
9.8%
8.2%
-
Int Rate
3.3%
1.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.8%
17.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.5%
39.8%
-
NYPP
5.2
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.9
30.3
-
RB YPR
4.9
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
21.6%
25.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.6%
42.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.7%
49.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.2
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
66.7
66.5
-
Early Down Succ
46.7%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
44.5%
45.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.3%
44.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.4
28.4
-
Run Ratio
37.3%
45.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.9
30.3
-
Game Control
-3.2
3.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
PHI |
27 – 17 W |
-5.1 |
41.2% /
32.0% |
8.8% /
16.0% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
4.7 /
4.2 |
36.1% /
35.3% |
30.6% /
23.5% |
2.2 /
3.4 |
70 /
67 |
42.9% /
33.3% |
38.6% /
32.8% |
25.1% /
61.1% |
3.4 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
51.4% /
25.4% |
40.0 /
24.7 |
| 2 |
@ARI |
15 – 30 L |
-15.0 |
37.8% /
46.3% |
10.8% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.4 /
6.8 |
60.9% /
50.0% |
17.4% /
15.6% |
5.1 /
5.0 |
60 /
73 |
48.9% /
48.1% |
46.7% /
47.9% |
44.3% /
50.7% |
5.3 /
6.0 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
38.3% /
43.8% |
27.5 /
24.6 |
| 3 |
@CLE |
20 – 34 L |
-2.4 |
40.0% /
56.0% |
7.5% /
8.0% |
8.1% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
5.7 |
50.0% /
43.2% |
13.6% /
27.0% |
4.7 /
4.3 |
62 /
62 |
42.0% /
51.1% |
43.5% /
48.4% |
37.2% /
27.7% |
5.0 /
4.8 |
3.2% /
0.0% |
35.5% /
59.7% |
26.8 /
40.0 |
| 4 |
BAL |
17 – 31 L |
-11.5 |
41.7% /
41.7% |
6.3% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
5.7 /
8.6 |
50.0% /
46.9% |
18.2% /
15.6% |
3.1 /
4.5 |
70 /
56 |
46.3% /
43.9% |
44.3% /
44.6% |
25.9% /
53.7% |
4.9 /
6.3 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
31.4% /
57.1% |
27.3 /
30.5 |
| 5 |
LA |
10 – 30 L |
-9.8 |
26.3% /
48.4% |
21.1% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
1.8 /
9.7 |
42.9% /
40.0% |
35.7% /
28.6% |
2.7 /
3.7 |
52 /
66 |
36.8% /
46.9% |
30.8% /
43.9% |
0.0% /
59.4% |
2.1 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
26.9% /
53.0% |
22.6 /
31.0 |
| 6 |
@NYG |
19 – 20 L |
-4.2 |
48.9% /
45.0% |
6.7% /
5.0% |
2.4% /
5.3% |
5.6 /
5.4 |
45.8% /
50.0% |
16.7% /
23.1% |
3.6 /
5.1 |
69 /
46 |
44.2% /
45.5% |
47.8% /
47.8% |
28.5% /
44.6% |
4.9 /
5.2 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
56.5% |
27.4 /
35.4 |
| 7 |
DAL |
25 – 3 W |
13.9 |
44.4% /
35.7% |
7.4% /
21.4% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
7.0 /
2.1 |
51.3% /
42.3% |
10.3% /
38.5% |
5.3 /
3.2 |
66 /
54 |
47.9% /
43.9% |
48.5% /
38.9% |
49.9% /
31.0% |
6.0 /
2.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
59.1% /
48.1% |
27.6 /
24.3 |
| 9 |
NYG |
20 – 23 L |
-7.9 |
61.0% /
35.9% |
4.9% /
12.8% |
7.7% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
4.7 |
44.4% /
57.1% |
22.2% /
11.4% |
4.1 /
4.7 |
50 /
74 |
61.9% /
50.0% |
58.0% /
45.9% |
54.7% /
43.1% |
8.0 /
4.7 |
4.0% /
0.0% |
18.0% /
47.3% |
23.5 /
35.2 |
| 10 |
@DET |
27 – 30 L |
-9.1 |
54.4% /
58.8% |
3.5% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
7.9 |
53.8% /
47.6% |
7.7% /
23.8% |
3.4 /
5.0 |
83 /
55 |
55.4% /
57.8% |
54.2% /
54.5% |
33.8% /
44.4% |
5.6 /
6.8 |
1.2% /
0.0% |
31.3% /
38.2% |
23.5 /
26.9 |
| 11 |
CIN |
20 – 9 W |
4.6 |
40.7% /
43.8% |
7.4% /
8.3% |
4.0% /
2.3% |
6.0 /
4.2 |
55.9% /
38.9% |
11.8% /
27.8% |
4.8 /
3.9 |
61 /
66 |
56.5% /
49.0% |
49.2% /
42.4% |
51.1% /
19.9% |
5.3 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
55.7% /
27.3% |
34.0 /
23.5 |
| 12 |
@DAL |
41 – 16 W |
4.7 |
56.7% /
41.0% |
10.0% /
10.3% |
3.7% /
2.9% |
5.2 /
4.8 |
50.0% /
61.1% |
11.1% /
16.7% |
5.1 /
3.3 |
66 /
57 |
54.0% /
55.0% |
53.0% /
47.4% |
43.2% /
36.4% |
5.1 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
54.5% /
31.6% |
40.2 /
30.5 |
| 13 |
@PIT |
23 – 17 W |
-4.2 |
32.7% /
43.4% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
5.6 /
5.8 |
28.6% /
28.6% |
33.3% /
57.1% |
2.1 /
1.5 |
70 /
67 |
34.6% /
42.0% |
31.4% /
40.3% |
41.8% /
40.5% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.0% /
20.9% |
29.2 /
28.2 |
| 14 |
@SF |
23 – 15 W |
3.6 |
26.5% /
42.9% |
5.9% /
8.2% |
3.1% /
2.2% |
2.8 /
4.8 |
39.3% /
59.3% |
17.9% /
22.2% |
3.5 /
4.0 |
62 /
76 |
38.6% /
55.0% |
32.3% /
48.7% |
23.3% /
7.3% |
3.1 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
2.6% |
45.2% /
35.5% |
28.2 /
27.9 |
| 15 |
SEA |
15 – 20 L |
-8.3 |
39.0% /
37.0% |
6.8% /
0.0% |
3.6% /
3.7% |
4.6 /
4.5 |
65.0% /
57.7% |
10.0% /
15.4% |
4.2 /
7.0 |
79 /
53 |
42.6% /
51.3% |
45.6% /
47.2% |
20.7% /
43.7% |
4.5 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.3% /
49.1% |
19.0 /
29.4 |
| 16 |
CAR |
13 – 20 L |
-10.5 |
38.0% /
40.6% |
6.0% /
12.5% |
4.3% /
3.6% |
5.6 /
5.2 |
73.7% /
42.9% |
15.8% /
22.9% |
5.7 /
3.2 |
69 /
67 |
49.0% /
43.5% |
47.8% /
41.8% |
48.4% /
39.6% |
5.6 /
4.2 |
2.9% /
1.5% |
27.5% /
52.2% |
22.2 /
32.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@WAS |
17 – 27 L |
5.1 |
32.0% /
41.2% |
16.0% /
8.8% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
4.7 |
35.3% /
36.1% |
23.5% /
30.6% |
3.4 /
2.2 |
67 /
70 |
33.3% /
42.9% |
32.8% /
38.6% |
61.1% /
25.1% |
4.0 /
3.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
25.4% /
51.4% |
24.7 /
40.0 |
| 2 |
LA |
19 – 37 L |
-9.4 |
46.5% /
67.9% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
9.2 |
73.1% /
59.0% |
0.0% /
12.8% |
4.7 /
4.9 |
69 /
67 |
57.1% /
65.4% |
56.5% /
62.7% |
17.1% /
52.8% |
5.3 /
6.7 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
37.7% /
58.2% |
29.1 /
31.6 |
| 3 |
CIN |
23 – 23 T |
0.2 |
38.0% /
42.3% |
6.0% /
15.4% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
4.9 |
55.6% /
38.9% |
16.7% /
33.3% |
4.9 /
2.7 |
86 /
70 |
44.6% /
46.4% |
45.3% /
41.4% |
36.5% /
25.7% |
4.4 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.9% /
25.7% |
24.6 /
30.2 |
| 4 |
@SF |
25 – 20 W |
0.5 |
45.2% /
52.0% |
9.7% /
10.0% |
3.6% /
4.4% |
5.6 /
6.0 |
42.9% /
40.0% |
32.1% /
20.0% |
3.3 /
5.8 |
59 /
70 |
45.5% /
50.9% |
44.1% /
48.6% |
51.7% /
36.5% |
4.5 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
47.5% /
28.6% |
28.0 /
23.3 |
| 5 |
@PIT |
29 – 38 L |
-4.9 |
48.8% /
45.7% |
12.2% /
2.9% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
6.6 |
31.3% /
31.3% |
37.5% /
31.3% |
5.9 /
4.3 |
57 /
67 |
35.7% /
30.0% |
43.9% /
38.8% |
48.2% /
40.9% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
28.1% /
47.8% |
23.5 /
35.0 |
| 6 |
BAL |
28 – 30 L |
-12.5 |
32.6% /
40.0% |
13.0% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
5.8 |
66.7% /
48.6% |
22.2% /
24.3% |
10.8 /
4.9 |
64 /
67 |
46.9% /
49.0% |
42.2% /
44.8% |
57.7% /
47.9% |
5.7 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
28.1% /
55.2% |
23.9 /
38.1 |
| 7 |
NYG |
22 – 21 W |
-0.0 |
50.0% /
39.4% |
6.5% /
9.1% |
2.3% /
3.3% |
7.5 /
5.0 |
42.3% /
45.5% |
15.4% /
22.7% |
3.7 /
7.3 |
72 /
55 |
51.8% /
45.5% |
47.2% /
41.8% |
36.9% /
61.8% |
6.1 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
36.1% /
40.0% |
32.4 /
24.8 |
| 8 |
DAL |
23 – 9 W |
2.1 |
37.5% /
36.4% |
12.5% /
9.1% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
3.0 |
50.0% /
54.3% |
19.2% /
34.3% |
4.6 /
3.8 |
58 /
79 |
47.8% /
50.0% |
43.1% /
44.3% |
35.6% /
20.4% |
3.8 /
3.4 |
3.4% /
2.5% |
44.8% /
44.3% |
33.6 /
33.2 |
| 10 |
@NYG |
17 – 27 L |
-7.4 |
47.5% /
48.4% |
7.5% /
9.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
7.5 |
60.9% /
50.0% |
30.4% /
22.2% |
6.8 /
4.2 |
63 /
67 |
62.7% /
55.1% |
52.4% /
49.3% |
37.6% /
51.8% |
5.5 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.5% /
53.7% |
16.4 /
31.5 |
| 11 |
@CLE |
17 – 22 L |
-4.5 |
40.0% /
40.0% |
12.5% /
12.0% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
7.5 |
60.0% /
25.0% |
28.0% /
37.5% |
4.2 /
3.4 |
65 /
65 |
52.9% /
34.0% |
47.7% /
30.8% |
36.8% /
55.9% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
1.5% /
1.5% |
38.5% /
61.5% |
29.4 /
27.1 |
| 12 |
SEA |
17 – 23 L |
-6.4 |
34.6% /
42.4% |
11.5% /
6.1% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
6.8 |
50.0% /
36.7% |
35.7% /
40.0% |
5.0 /
2.5 |
66 /
63 |
37.8% /
46.9% |
37.9% /
39.7% |
37.2% /
36.2% |
3.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
21.2% /
47.6% |
24.2 /
36.8 |
| 13 |
@GB |
16 – 30 L |
-7.3 |
29.4% /
52.8% |
20.6% /
5.6% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
8.0 |
52.0% /
40.0% |
28.0% /
12.0% |
4.7 /
6.0 |
59 /
61 |
40.0% /
50.0% |
39.0% /
47.5% |
66.2% /
57.9% |
4.7 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.4% /
41.0% |
26.8 /
19.4 |
| 14 |
NO |
24 – 21 W |
6.8 |
43.3% /
46.5% |
0.0% /
11.6% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.6 /
6.1 |
47.2% /
50.0% |
8.3% /
10.0% |
6.8 /
4.8 |
66 /
63 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
45.5% /
47.6% |
47.2% /
46.6% |
6.3 /
5.7 |
1.5% /
1.6% |
54.5% /
31.7% |
34.6 /
29.1 |
| 15 |
@ARI |
26 – 33 L |
-6.2 |
38.0% /
60.5% |
12.0% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
6.1 /
11.1 |
48.3% /
36.7% |
17.2% /
26.7% |
4.0 /
3.4 |
79 /
68 |
42.1% /
53.6% |
41.8% /
50.0% |
62.3% /
53.0% |
5.3 /
7.7 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
36.7% /
44.1% |
25.1 /
32.5 |
| 16 |
@DAL |
17 – 37 L |
-4.0 |
40.5% /
62.5% |
7.1% /
6.3% |
5.1% /
3.3% |
7.8 /
11.3 |
58.6% /
47.1% |
10.3% /
20.6% |
5.2 /
4.4 |
71 /
66 |
50.0% /
57.7% |
47.9% /
54.5% |
47.0% /
57.7% |
6.7 /
7.8 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
40.8% /
51.5% |
27.7 /
22.4 |
Washington Football Team
@ 
Philadelphia Eagles