Washington Commanders @

New York Giants

Sun, Dec 4
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 461
Odds: New York Giants +2.5, Total: 40.5

Game Analysis

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Washington (-2.5) vs NY GIANTS

· These division rivals are trending in the opposite directions with the Giants dropping three of the last four games while the Commanders have the best record in the NFL (6-1) since week 6.

· Washington’s offense is averaging -0.036 EPA/dropback since week 6 (26th). The ride will eventually stop for Taylor Heinicke but maybe not this week.

· New York’s defense leads the league with a 42.3% blitz rate which makes them susceptible to screens as they allow 6.1 yards per target to running backs (24th). Commanders RB Antonio Gibson is averaging 1.71 yards per route run (3rd) and you can bet he will try to catch the Giants in a blitz.

· Washington WR Terry McLaurin is averaging 0.38 EPA/target (18th) and he will look to get deep versus New York’s secondary missing two starters in safety Xavier McKinney and cornerback Adoree Jackson, who ranks 23rd in coverage grade by PFF.

· The Giants and Commanders have the best interior pass rush in the NFL. Washington defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne have combined for 75 pressures. New York interior defender Dexter Lawrence ranks 6th in pass rushing efficiency and interior defender Leonard Williams ranks 26th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Both Daniel Jones and Heinicke will confront pressure up the middle. Jones will be behind backup center Nick Gates and backup guard Jack Anderson while Washington backup C Tyler Larsen ranks 2nd worst pass blocking efficiency among centers since taking over in week 6.

· Feels like we’ve been saying it for weeks but Commanders edge defender Chase Young could make his debut in this game. Young would line up across from Giants rookie right tackle Evan Neal, who has surrendered 5 sacks in seven games.

· Washington’s defense is allowing -0.119 EPA/rush (5th) and should shut down Saquon Barkley on the ground. However, Barkley will be vital as a receiver as Commanders’ linebacker Jamin Davis surrendered 110 yards in coverage last week.

· Our model makes Washington a 2.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 40.1.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Commanders
  • Giants


  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00


  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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