Game Analysis

LA RAMS (-6.5) vs Washington

Lean – Over (50)

· The Commanders’ defense is allowing a league-high 0.21 EPA/dropback and it has gotten even worse since trading starting edge defenders Chase Young and Montez Sweat (0.24 EPA/dropback).

· Washington’s defense has only a 30.9% pressure rate (30th) and Matthew Stafford is averaging 7.9 yppp when kept clean (5th)

· However, Rams’ starting right tackle Rob Havenstein exited in the first quarter against the Ravens last week and the line surrendered 18 pressures (2nd-most).

· Havenstein ranks 13th in pass-blocking efficiency and he is worth 0.8 points to the Los Angeles offense according to our metrics.

· Rams WR Puka Nacua is averaging 2.49 yards per route run (7th) and he will have a favorable matchup across from rookie CB Emmanuel Forbes, who is surrendering a league-high 6.3% explosive pass play rate.

· Washington’s interior line is responsible for 57.4% of the pressures on Sam Howell this season (4th-most) and they will struggle against DT Aaron Donald, who ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Our model favors the Rams by 5.5 points, with a predicted total of 51.8 points.