Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Over (55) – Washington at DETROIT

Strong Opinion – Terry McLaurin (Wash) – Over 5.5 Receptions (-120) to -130

Lean – Washington (+9.5)

• I cannot accept the betting markets implying that the Lions have a league-average defense. Detroit surrendered 5.8 yppl this season (28th).
• The 5.8 yppl includes the 5 games and 7.5 sacks the Lions got from edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who will not be on the field this Sunday.
• The 5.8 yppl includes the 45 pressures the Lions got from interior defender Alim McNeill, who ranked 8th in pressures when he knocked out for the season in week 15 with a torn ACL.
• The 5.8 yppl includes the 13 starts the Lions got from cornerback Carlton Davis, who ranked 19th in PFF coverage grade and is not expected to return in the postseason.
• The current state of Detroit’s defense without Hutchinson, McNeill, and Davis is rated 22nd by our metrics and it is unlikely the Lions limit the Commanders to under 24 points indoors in a dome.
• Washington’s offense averaged 28.2 points (5th) and had a 48% success rate (5th) in scoring conditions that have been 1.0 points worse than average according to our numbers (3rd-worst).
• Commanders’ WR Terry McLaurin averaged a league-high 0.65 EPA/target and Jayden Daniels led the NFL with +42.5 EPA on go routes. The pair will make the most of Davis being out by attacking CB Terrion Arnold, who ranked 6th-worst in PFF coverage grade.
• The Lions’ defense leads the NFL with a 44% cover 1 rate but turning your back in man coverage versus Jayden Daniels is a recipe for failure. Daniels led the NFL with +57.5 rush EPA and Detroit’s defense is surrendering a league-high 6.2 yards per carry to opposing QBs.
• Washington TE Zach Ertz had a 60% success rate (4th) and he has a favorable matchup against the Lions’ cover 1 as Ertz has the 10th highest man versus zone target difference.
• The market is expecting Detroit’s offense to score 32.5 points in this game and I think this could also be a touch low after the Commanders’ defense just surrendered a 65% dropback success rate last week, the worst dropback success rate allowed in a playoff win since 2000.
• The Lions lead the NFL with a 37% play action rate, and I expect them to feature those looks as Washington’s defense is allowing 18% more yppp against play action than no play action (22nd).
• Detroit RB Jahmyr Gibbs is averaging 1.67 yards per route run (2nd) but Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will be looking downfield instead in this game as the Commanders are allowing -0.11 EPA/target to opposing running backs (4th).
• Washington CB Marshon Lattimore might not be fully healthy as he surrendered a league-high 4.42 yards per coverage snap in the Wild Card Round and it’s possible he won’t be able to go step for step on deep balls to WR Jameson Williams, who is averaging 0.47 EPA/target (11th).
• Jared Goff will also feature TE Sam LaPorta, who is averaging 1.61 yards per route run (5th). The Commanders’ defense is surrendering 0.33 EPA/target (26th).
• Our model makes Detroit a 6.5-point favorite, which includes and adjustment for Washington playing in their 3rd consecutive road game, with a predicted total of 58.6 points.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 55 -115 odds or better.