Game Analysis

DALLAS (-13.5) vs Washington

· Cowboys edge defender Micah Parsons had 2.5 sacks last week and the Dallas defense has a 62% pressure rate on Bryce Young. The Cowboys pass rush will torment Sam Howell, who has a league-high 51 sacks.

· Howell’s top receiver Terry McLaurin leads the Commanders with 56 receptions, but he will be limited by CB Daron Bland, who leads the NFL with +48 EPA for his defense this year when targeted.

· Howell will instead find TE Logan Thomas, whose 56% success rate ranks 9th. Dallas is allowing 0.26 EPA/target to tight ends (26th) and starting safety Jayron Kearse is likely out.

· Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb has 655 receiving yards in his last 5 games and is up to 0.67 EPA/target (2nd) but he will be relatively contained by nickelback Benjamin St-Juste, who is conceding 0.88 yards per cover snap in the slot (7th).

· The quick game to Lamb might be a less appealing option this week, but Dallas will have clean pockets to look downfield. Washington’s remaining pass-rushing threat after trading edge defenders Chase Young and Montez Sweat is interior defender Jonathan Allen, who has 36 pressures (7th). Allen will be shut down on Thursday though by Cowboys LG Tyler Smith, who ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency.

· Our model makes Dallas a 10.5-point favorite, with a predicted total of 47.6 points, but the Cowboys are relatively better against lesser teams, as they are now 53-26-2 ATS when facing a team with a win percentage of 0.500 or lower. I think 13 is a fair line and I used Washington in my spread pool.