Game Analysis

Lean – Over (44.5) – SAN FRANCISCO (-12.5) vs Tennessee

• Let’s update San Francisco’s defense without LB Fred Warner and edge rusher Nick Bosa since I haven’t written about it the last couple weeks.
• The 49ers were conceding 4.7 yppl with Warner and Bosa on the field for 110 plays. San Francisco’s defense is allowing 5.8 yppl with Warner and Bosa off the field. For reference, Tennessee’s defense is also surrendering 5.8 yppl, ranking 28th.
• The 49ers have only 16 sacks through 14 weeks, the lowest by any defense in the last three years. The Titans have surrendered a league-high 49 sacks, but Cam Ward should be more secure on Sunday.
• San Francisco’s interior offensive line is at fault for 58% of the allowed pressures (31st), and Brock Purdy will not have stable pockets against interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who leads the NFL in pass rushing efficiency.
• The Titans won at Cleveland for us last week (Strong Opinion on Tenn) but they are 0-10 ATS following their last 10 victories so I don’t trust them to play well in consecutive weeks.
• Our model favors the 49ers by 12.4 points, with a predicted total of 47.3 points. I used SF -12.5 in my pool.