Tennessee Titans @

San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Dec 17
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 327
Odds: San Francisco 49ers -1.5, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Over (44.5) – SAN FRANCISCO (-2) vs Tennessee

This game features two young quarterbacks trending in the opposite direction. Jimmy Garoppolo finally got his opportunity and he’s certainly making the most of it – averaging 8.0 yards per pass play thus far for the Niners. Unlike previous Patriots backup quarterbacks, Garoppolo is actually playing even better after leaving New England. Meanwhile, Marcus Mariota has regressed after a promising second year in the league throwing 14 interceptions this season, 2nd-most behind the Browns’ DeShone Kizer.

The Titans’ rush defense ranks 4th in my metrics but there should be an opportunity for Carlos Hyde to play a role in the passing game. Hyde has been targeted the 3rd-most among running backs this season but had just one pass thrown his way last week after seeing 5 targets in Garoppolo’s first start. Garoppolo would be wise to look for Hyde more often on Sunday as Tennessee has surrendered more receiving yards to opposing running backs than any team in the league.

If Garoppolo plays at the level he’s played over his career (67% completions on 166 pass attempts and 7.0 yards per pass play) then I’d favor the Niners by 3 ½ points in this game. However, there is plenty of evidence that quarterbacks tend to not play as well as they performed for New England and if you make that adjustment on Garoppolo’s stats with the Pats then the Niners by 1 point is what you’d get. So, it’s basically a question of if Garoppolo is really as good with the Niners as he’s been overall in his career, which includes potentially enhanced stats from his days with the Patriots. I’ll officially pass on the side this game but if I was in a pool and had to play it I’d choose the Niners to cover. Our model does like the over a bit, as the math projects 48 total points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Titans
  • 49ers
TEN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.2 40.2
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.4% 46.0%
  • Sack Rate 6.7% 7.2%
  • Int Rate 4.5% 2.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 22.4% 16.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 34.0% 28.1%
  • NYPP 6.0 5.7



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.8 25.8
  • RB YPR 3.9 3.4
  • Stuff Rate 26.7% 22.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 42.3% 41.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 44.4% 29.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 3.5




Game

  • All Snaps 61.1 66.1
  • Early Down Succ 47.2% 48.0%
  • Succ Rate 43.6% 44.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.5% 28.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.2 4.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.7 27.8
  • Run Ratio 45.6% 39.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.9 29.7
  • Game Control -1.1 1.1
 
  • Points 21.0 22.6
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