Game Analysis
Lean – Over (44.5) – SAN FRANCISCO (-2) vs Tennessee
This game features two young quarterbacks trending in the opposite direction. Jimmy Garoppolo finally got his opportunity and he’s certainly making the most of it – averaging 8.0 yards per pass play thus far for the Niners. Unlike previous Patriots backup quarterbacks, Garoppolo is actually playing even better after leaving New England. Meanwhile, Marcus Mariota has regressed after a promising second year in the league throwing 14 interceptions this season, 2nd-most behind the Browns’ DeShone Kizer.
The Titans’ rush defense ranks 4th in my metrics but there should be an opportunity for Carlos Hyde to play a role in the passing game. Hyde has been targeted the 3rd-most among running backs this season but had just one pass thrown his way last week after seeing 5 targets in Garoppolo’s first start. Garoppolo would be wise to look for Hyde more often on Sunday as Tennessee has surrendered more receiving yards to opposing running backs than any team in the league.
If Garoppolo plays at the level he’s played over his career (67% completions on 166 pass attempts and 7.0 yards per pass play) then I’d favor the Niners by 3 ½ points in this game. However, there is plenty of evidence that quarterbacks tend to not play as well as they performed for New England and if you make that adjustment on Garoppolo’s stats with the Pats then the Niners by 1 point is what you’d get. So, it’s basically a question of if Garoppolo is really as good with the Niners as he’s been overall in his career, which includes potentially enhanced stats from his days with the Patriots. I’ll officially pass on the side this game but if I was in a pool and had to play it I’d choose the Niners to cover. Our model does like the over a bit, as the math projects 48 total points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.2
40.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.4%
46.0%
-
Sack Rate
6.7%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
4.5%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.4%
16.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.0%
28.1%
-
NYPP
6.0
5.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.8
25.8
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
26.7%
22.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.3%
41.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.4%
29.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
61.1
66.1
-
Early Down Succ
47.2%
48.0%
-
Succ Rate
43.6%
44.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.5%
28.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
27.8
-
Run Ratio
45.6%
39.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.9
29.7
-
Game Control
-1.1
1.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.4
34.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.5%
47.7%
-
Sack Rate
7.0%
5.1%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.1%
20.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.6%
39.7%
-
NYPP
5.9
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.3
33.2
-
RB YPR
4.0
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
25.9%
24.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.3%
41.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
47.9%
42.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
66.7
67.8
-
Early Down Succ
44.4%
46.6%
-
Succ Rate
41.5%
44.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.6%
40.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.2
28.9
-
Run Ratio
38.0%
49.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.8
29.6
-
Game Control
-5.7
5.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
OAK |
16 – 26 L |
-4.4 |
50.0% /
55.9% |
2.4% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
7.4 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
28.6% /
16.7% |
4.5 /
3.7 |
63 /
64 |
46.9% /
57.1% |
47.6% /
53.1% |
33.1% /
26.7% |
5.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
46.9% |
22.4 /
29.3 |
| 2 |
@JAC |
37 – 16 W |
7.9 |
42.9% /
41.7% |
3.6% /
5.6% |
3.7% /
5.9% |
7.5 /
5.9 |
68.4% /
64.0% |
10.5% /
12.0% |
4.8 /
4.0 |
66 /
61 |
64.0% /
52.1% |
57.6% /
50.8% |
41.6% /
23.5% |
5.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
57.6% /
41.0% |
39.9 /
23.4 |
| 3 |
SEA |
33 – 27 W |
4.9 |
51.6% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
44.4% /
40.9% |
22.2% /
31.8% |
5.4 /
3.1 |
67 /
72 |
54.9% /
51.8% |
47.8% /
47.2% |
44.9% /
38.8% |
6.3 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.7% /
30.6% |
29.6 /
23.3 |
| 4 |
@HOU |
14 – 57 L |
-20.6 |
40.9% /
58.3% |
9.1% /
5.6% |
20.0% /
2.9% |
5.0 /
7.6 |
35.0% /
50.0% |
15.0% /
14.3% |
4.4 /
4.1 |
42 /
78 |
43.8% /
53.8% |
38.1% /
53.8% |
52.6% /
28.5% |
4.7 /
5.7 |
2.4% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
53.8% |
21.9 /
38.0 |
| 5 |
@MIA |
10 – 16 L |
-4.2 |
36.8% /
25.0% |
15.8% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
3.1 /
2.8 |
30.0% /
43.8% |
45.0% /
28.1% |
3.5 /
3.2 |
58 /
60 |
40.0% /
37.2% |
34.5% /
35.0% |
19.1% /
6.1% |
3.2 /
3.0 |
3.4% /
1.7% |
34.5% /
53.3% |
25.1 /
27.0 |
| 6 |
IND |
36 – 22 W |
-1.2 |
57.6% /
51.4% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
5.7 |
42.9% /
40.0% |
20.0% /
20.0% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
68 /
57 |
51.9% /
53.2% |
50.0% /
47.4% |
42.2% /
22.6% |
7.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
51.5% /
35.1% |
27.4 /
26.5 |
| 7 |
@CLE |
12 – 9 W |
2.1 |
41.7% /
39.0% |
5.6% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
5.3 /
5.3 |
31.3% /
25.9% |
46.9% /
22.2% |
2.5 /
2.5 |
68 /
68 |
38.0% /
37.3% |
36.8% /
33.8% |
14.5% /
23.9% |
4.0 /
4.2 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
39.7% |
33.6 /
25.1 |
| 9 |
BAL |
23 – 20 W |
6.3 |
51.6% /
49.1% |
9.7% /
3.6% |
3.6% /
3.8% |
6.0 /
4.9 |
36.4% /
40.9% |
22.7% /
22.7% |
3.3 /
3.3 |
53 /
77 |
53.8% /
47.4% |
45.3% /
46.8% |
49.0% /
8.2% |
4.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.5% /
28.6% |
34.6 /
24.8 |
| 10 |
CIN |
24 – 20 W |
2.6 |
43.8% /
38.9% |
8.3% /
2.8% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.1 |
52.8% /
50.0% |
16.7% /
28.6% |
5.0 /
3.8 |
84 /
50 |
46.4% /
48.7% |
47.6% /
42.0% |
34.6% /
51.0% |
5.0 /
6.2 |
1.2% /
4.0% |
42.9% /
28.0% |
26.1 /
30.9 |
| 11 |
@PIT |
17 – 40 L |
-9.1 |
41.0% /
55.3% |
12.8% /
6.4% |
11.8% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
6.0 |
32.0% /
33.3% |
32.0% /
16.7% |
2.2 /
2.8 |
64 /
71 |
42.9% /
55.6% |
37.5% /
47.9% |
53.3% /
26.7% |
5.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.1% /
33.8% |
22.2 /
44.3 |
| 12 |
@IND |
20 – 16 W |
-0.5 |
48.0% /
37.8% |
0.0% /
21.6% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
4.5 |
40.0% /
37.5% |
26.7% /
20.8% |
3.1 /
3.7 |
55 /
61 |
48.8% /
36.2% |
43.6% /
37.7% |
35.6% /
28.3% |
5.1 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
54.5% /
39.3% |
31.1 /
29.8 |
| 13 |
HOU |
24 – 13 W |
-0.2 |
36.0% /
51.9% |
8.0% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
5.8 /
6.4 |
44.0% /
26.1% |
24.0% /
39.1% |
7.9 /
2.3 |
50 /
75 |
36.8% /
42.9% |
40.0% /
44.0% |
55.5% /
40.5% |
6.9 /
5.1 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
30.7% |
24.3 /
27.5 |
| 14 |
@ARI |
7 – 12 L |
1.6 |
35.3% /
44.1% |
8.8% /
23.5% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
3.7 |
50.0% /
38.7% |
36.4% /
22.6% |
3.0 /
4.5 |
56 /
65 |
45.2% /
51.1% |
41.1% /
41.5% |
25.0% /
47.9% |
3.6 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.3% /
47.7% |
24.5 /
35.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CAR |
3 – 23 L |
-12.4 |
46.2% /
45.8% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
2.9% /
4.2% |
4.3 /
7.1 |
26.7% /
39.0% |
26.7% /
14.6% |
3.4 /
2.9 |
54 /
65 |
48.7% /
42.6% |
40.7% /
41.5% |
33.6% /
29.7% |
4.0 /
4.5 |
1.9% /
1.5% |
27.8% /
63.1% |
30.1 /
33.7 |
| 2 |
@SEA |
9 – 12 L |
-2.0 |
20.7% /
33.3% |
6.9% /
7.1% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
4.3 |
52.6% /
37.2% |
21.1% /
20.9% |
8.4 /
3.1 |
48 /
85 |
38.9% /
37.5% |
33.3% /
35.3% |
49.2% /
23.7% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.6% /
50.6% |
24.5 /
23.9 |
| 3 |
LA |
39 – 41 L |
-8.5 |
46.3% /
64.3% |
9.8% /
0.0% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
10.4 |
51.5% /
51.5% |
27.3% /
30.3% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
61 |
47.2% /
57.4% |
48.6% /
57.4% |
50.8% /
55.4% |
5.7 /
6.9 |
1.4% /
3.3% |
44.6% /
54.1% |
36.1 /
36.1 |
| 4 |
@ARI |
15 – 18 L |
1.4 |
30.8% /
49.1% |
5.8% /
10.5% |
2.0% /
2.0% |
4.0 /
5.6 |
37.0% /
39.1% |
25.9% /
30.4% |
3.5 /
2.3 |
79 /
80 |
33.9% /
51.6% |
32.9% /
46.3% |
27.9% /
17.9% |
3.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.2% /
28.8% |
22.3 /
27.9 |
| 5 |
@IND |
23 – 26 L |
-3.3 |
50.0% /
44.7% |
4.2% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.0 /
7.6 |
31.8% /
32.4% |
31.8% /
32.4% |
3.0 /
4.4 |
70 /
75 |
46.3% /
38.2% |
44.3% /
38.7% |
37.3% /
58.1% |
5.7 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.4% /
49.3% |
17.5 /
28.8 |
| 6 |
@WAS |
24 – 26 L |
-7.0 |
30.0% /
60.5% |
6.0% /
2.6% |
2.1% /
2.7% |
5.0 /
8.6 |
65.0% /
38.2% |
25.0% /
29.4% |
4.3 /
2.8 |
70 /
72 |
41.2% /
51.8% |
40.0% /
50.0% |
50.4% /
43.6% |
4.8 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
28.6% /
47.2% |
32.6 /
26.9 |
| 7 |
DAL |
10 – 40 L |
-20.1 |
39.5% /
51.9% |
11.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
8.7 |
59.1% /
68.9% |
27.3% /
11.1% |
4.7 /
5.9 |
65 /
72 |
48.0% /
66.7% |
46.2% /
62.5% |
40.7% /
57.0% |
4.5 /
7.0 |
4.6% /
0.0% |
33.8% /
62.5% |
23.0 /
34.1 |
| 8 |
@PHI |
10 – 33 L |
-11.9 |
32.5% /
42.9% |
10.0% /
8.6% |
5.6% /
3.1% |
3.6 /
5.5 |
41.7% /
39.4% |
41.7% /
27.3% |
3.9 /
3.5 |
64 /
68 |
40.8% /
46.9% |
35.9% /
41.2% |
38.2% /
44.4% |
3.7 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
48.5% |
28.5 /
29.0 |
| 9 |
ARI |
10 – 20 L |
-7.3 |
32.1% /
40.0% |
8.9% /
0.0% |
2.0% /
3.3% |
4.8 /
6.7 |
58.8% /
34.8% |
17.6% /
13.0% |
3.7 /
3.7 |
73 /
76 |
40.7% /
38.9% |
38.4% /
36.8% |
30.7% /
45.8% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
1.4% /
1.3% |
23.3% /
60.5% |
23.5 /
34.4 |
| 10 |
NYG |
31 – 21 W |
4.9 |
60.0% /
55.0% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
4.0% /
0.0% |
11.5 /
6.5 |
41.7% /
52.2% |
19.4% /
21.7% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
61 /
63 |
51.2% /
56.5% |
49.2% /
54.0% |
67.7% /
35.6% |
7.8 /
5.9 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
59.0% /
36.5% |
31.9 /
26.6 |
| 12 |
SEA |
13 – 24 L |
-7.2 |
38.1% /
44.1% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
2.6% /
2.9% |
4.7 /
6.7 |
45.8% /
38.7% |
33.3% /
25.8% |
3.5 /
2.9 |
66 /
65 |
42.9% /
44.0% |
40.9% /
41.5% |
43.6% /
48.6% |
4.2 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
47.7% |
25.4 /
32.2 |
| 13 |
@CHI |
15 – 14 W |
-2.5 |
56.4% /
47.1% |
5.1% /
11.8% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
5.0 |
45.7% /
21.1% |
22.9% /
26.3% |
3.2 /
3.3 |
74 /
36 |
50.9% /
26.9% |
51.4% /
33.3% |
27.5% /
23.8% |
5.3 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.3% /
52.8% |
24.9 /
25.7 |
| 14 |
@HOU |
26 – 16 W |
1.6 |
44.1% /
41.5% |
5.9% /
7.3% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
5.4 |
31.4% /
43.5% |
17.1% /
34.8% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
69 /
64 |
46.2% /
46.9% |
37.7% /
42.2% |
56.1% /
44.4% |
6.1 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
50.7% /
35.9% |
28.5 /
25.3 |
Tennessee Titans
@ 
San Francisco 49ers