Game Analysis
NEW ENGLAND (-13) vs Tennessee
The Patriots have the league’s best offense according to my numbers and their success will likely continue this week. The Titans have a solid rush defense but they ranked 25th against the pass in my metrics and allowed 6.9 yards per pass play to the Chiefs last week, which could’ve been even worse without 3 crucial downfield drops by Tyreek Hill. Tennessee surrenders more receiving yards to opposing running backs than any team and New England will likely exploit the weakness as they’ve targeted running backs third-most in the NFL. If a defense has a weakness the Patriots will exploit it and I expect the Pats’ running backs to have big numbers catching the ball out of the backfield in this game.
New England’s defense played nearly a touchdown per game better in the second half of the season and, despite the lack of any notable lineup changes, I believe the recent performance is more in line with their talent level. I expect the Patriots defense to continue playing well closer to their second-half numbers and preseason expectations moving forward.
Last week we liked the matchup for Tennessee’s offense and Delanie Walker, Marcus Mariota’s most targeted receiver, gained 9.3 yards per target against a Kansas City defense ranked 30th against opposing tight ends. However, I do not expect his success to continue versus New England, rated 6th in yards per target allowed to opposing tight ends. But, the Titans should have success running the football and DeMarco Murray’s injury was a blessing in disguise for Tennessee because it allowed Derrick Henry a greater workload and he took full advantage gaining 6.8 yards per rush last week. Henry’s 42% rush success rate this season is a full 10 percentage points above Murray’s 32% and the Titans would be wise to continue using Henry as a feature back even if Murray (questionable) returns to health.
Looking at the yards per play stats make it hard to justify such a huge spread in this game. In fact, Tennessee has a +0.3 net yards per play differential if you take out the horrible numbers from when Matt Cassel was at quarterback while Mariota was injured early in the season and the Pats are at +0.2, as they’ve averaged 6.0 yppl and allowed 5.8 yppl. However, you can’t use those sort of metrics when analyzing the Patriots. Our model is based on play-by-play data and expected points added for each play/decision. New England coach Bill Belichick is the best coach in the league at making good EPA decisions and the defense gives up a lot of yards when it doesn’t matter as much and is much better in higher leveraged situations. That has been the case for years and the Patriots traditionally outplayed their stats by about 3 points per game in the Belichick-Brady era, which is why they’ve covered the spread in nearly 60% of Brady’s career starts. Our model has the Patriots rated as the best team in the league because it looks at the value of each play and not at the more common yardage stats. That being said, the line on this game is fair, as our model favors the Patriots by 13 ½ points with the extra home-field advantage for this round of the playoffs. You might think that taking the big points against a reportedly troubled Patriots’ team might be the way to go but playoff road dogs of 10 points or more with a win percentage of less than .666 are just 3-18-1 ATS since 1991 and the Patriots have a history of responding well to controversy (i.e. Spygate and Deflategate) and I do not believe their play on the field will be affected by the recent ESPN report of tension among leadership. I’m going to suggest passing on this game but if you’re in some sort of pool then I’d put a check next to the Pats. No opinion on the total.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.1
40.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.8%
46.4%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
7.0%
-
Int Rate
3.8%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.5%
16.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.6%
28.9%
-
NYPP
6.1
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.0
25.0
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
25.8%
22.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.8%
41.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.2%
29.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
62.1
65.1
-
Early Down Succ
47.1%
48.1%
-
Succ Rate
43.6%
45.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.2%
29.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
27.9
-
Run Ratio
46.6%
38.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.4
28.5
-
Game Control
-1.4
1.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.1
39.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.3%
47.0%
-
Sack Rate
6.1%
7.0%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.7%
20.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.8%
37.3%
-
NYPP
7.1
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.9
25.1
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
19.7%
19.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.9%
50.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
31.5%
41.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
67.9
64.4
-
Early Down Succ
53.9%
52.0%
-
Succ Rate
50.0%
48.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.3%
40.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.4
25.8
-
Run Ratio
41.8%
39.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.1
24.7
-
Game Control
5.8
-5.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
OAK |
16 – 26 L |
-4.4 |
50.0% /
55.9% |
2.4% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
7.4 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
28.6% /
16.7% |
4.5 /
3.7 |
63 /
64 |
46.9% /
57.1% |
47.6% /
53.1% |
33.1% /
26.7% |
5.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
46.9% |
22.4 /
29.3 |
| 2 |
@JAC |
37 – 16 W |
7.9 |
42.9% /
41.7% |
3.6% /
5.6% |
3.7% /
5.9% |
7.5 /
5.9 |
68.4% /
64.0% |
10.5% /
12.0% |
4.8 /
4.0 |
66 /
61 |
64.0% /
52.1% |
57.6% /
50.8% |
41.6% /
23.5% |
5.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
57.6% /
41.0% |
39.9 /
23.4 |
| 3 |
SEA |
33 – 27 W |
4.9 |
51.6% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
44.4% /
40.9% |
22.2% /
31.8% |
5.4 /
3.1 |
67 /
72 |
54.9% /
51.8% |
47.8% /
47.2% |
44.9% /
38.8% |
6.3 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.7% /
30.6% |
29.6 /
23.3 |
| 4 |
@HOU |
14 – 57 L |
-20.6 |
40.9% /
58.3% |
9.1% /
5.6% |
20.0% /
2.9% |
5.0 /
7.6 |
35.0% /
50.0% |
15.0% /
14.3% |
4.4 /
4.1 |
42 /
78 |
43.8% /
53.8% |
38.1% /
53.8% |
52.6% /
28.5% |
4.7 /
5.7 |
2.4% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
53.8% |
21.9 /
38.0 |
| 5 |
@MIA |
10 – 16 L |
-4.2 |
36.8% /
25.0% |
15.8% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
3.1 /
2.8 |
30.0% /
43.8% |
45.0% /
28.1% |
3.5 /
3.2 |
58 /
60 |
40.0% /
37.2% |
34.5% /
35.0% |
19.1% /
6.1% |
3.2 /
3.0 |
3.4% /
1.7% |
34.5% /
53.3% |
25.1 /
27.0 |
| 6 |
IND |
36 – 22 W |
-1.2 |
57.6% /
51.4% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
5.7 |
42.9% /
40.0% |
20.0% /
20.0% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
68 /
57 |
51.9% /
53.2% |
50.0% /
47.4% |
42.2% /
22.6% |
7.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
51.5% /
35.1% |
27.4 /
26.5 |
| 7 |
@CLE |
12 – 9 W |
2.1 |
41.7% /
39.0% |
5.6% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
5.3 /
5.3 |
31.3% /
25.9% |
46.9% /
22.2% |
2.5 /
2.5 |
68 /
68 |
38.0% /
37.3% |
36.8% /
33.8% |
14.5% /
23.9% |
4.0 /
4.2 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
39.7% |
33.6 /
25.1 |
| 9 |
BAL |
23 – 20 W |
6.3 |
51.6% /
49.1% |
9.7% /
3.6% |
3.6% /
3.8% |
6.0 /
4.9 |
36.4% /
40.9% |
22.7% /
22.7% |
3.3 /
3.3 |
53 /
77 |
53.8% /
47.4% |
45.3% /
46.8% |
49.0% /
8.2% |
4.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.5% /
28.6% |
34.6 /
24.8 |
| 10 |
CIN |
24 – 20 W |
2.6 |
43.8% /
38.9% |
8.3% /
2.8% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.1 |
52.8% /
50.0% |
16.7% /
28.6% |
5.0 /
3.8 |
84 /
50 |
46.4% /
48.7% |
47.6% /
42.0% |
34.6% /
51.0% |
5.0 /
6.2 |
1.2% /
4.0% |
42.9% /
28.0% |
26.1 /
30.9 |
| 11 |
@PIT |
17 – 40 L |
-9.1 |
41.0% /
55.3% |
12.8% /
6.4% |
11.8% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
6.0 |
32.0% /
33.3% |
32.0% /
16.7% |
2.2 /
2.8 |
64 /
71 |
42.9% /
55.6% |
37.5% /
47.9% |
53.3% /
26.7% |
5.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.1% /
33.8% |
22.2 /
44.3 |
| 12 |
@IND |
20 – 16 W |
-0.5 |
48.0% /
37.8% |
0.0% /
21.6% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
4.5 |
40.0% /
37.5% |
26.7% /
20.8% |
3.1 /
3.7 |
55 /
61 |
48.8% /
36.2% |
43.6% /
37.7% |
35.6% /
28.3% |
5.1 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
54.5% /
39.3% |
31.1 /
29.8 |
| 13 |
HOU |
24 – 13 W |
-0.2 |
36.0% /
51.9% |
8.0% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
5.8 /
6.4 |
44.0% /
26.1% |
24.0% /
39.1% |
7.9 /
2.3 |
50 /
75 |
36.8% /
42.9% |
40.0% /
44.0% |
55.5% /
40.5% |
6.9 /
5.1 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
30.7% |
24.3 /
27.5 |
| 14 |
@ARI |
7 – 12 L |
1.6 |
35.3% /
44.1% |
8.8% /
23.5% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
3.7 |
50.0% /
38.7% |
36.4% /
22.6% |
3.0 /
4.5 |
56 /
65 |
45.2% /
51.1% |
41.1% /
41.5% |
25.0% /
47.9% |
3.6 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.3% /
47.7% |
24.5 /
35.6 |
| 15 |
@SF |
23 – 25 L |
-3.0 |
52.9% /
57.8% |
2.9% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
8.1 |
50.0% /
27.3% |
21.4% /
36.4% |
3.2 /
2.3 |
62 /
67 |
51.0% /
47.2% |
51.6% /
47.8% |
26.8% /
31.2% |
5.3 /
6.2 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
45.2% /
32.8% |
23.4 /
23.7 |
| 16 |
LA |
23 – 27 L |
-2.4 |
40.0% /
50.0% |
2.5% /
2.5% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
7.2 |
38.5% /
44.4% |
26.9% /
14.8% |
3.7 /
4.3 |
66 /
67 |
43.4% /
51.0% |
39.4% /
47.8% |
36.6% /
41.7% |
5.5 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
39.4% /
40.3% |
30.6 /
26.5 |
| 17 |
JAC |
15 – 10 W |
5.6 |
29.2% /
33.3% |
12.5% /
5.6% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
4.8 /
4.1 |
37.5% /
50.0% |
30.0% /
16.7% |
2.9 /
3.5 |
64 /
60 |
40.0% /
40.9% |
34.4% /
40.0% |
51.1% /
10.0% |
3.6 /
3.8 |
1.6% /
3.3% |
62.5% /
40.0% |
38.2 /
21.9 |
| 18 |
@KC |
22 – 21 W |
-9.2 |
45.5% /
48.6% |
6.1% /
10.8% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
6.9 |
51.4% /
50.0% |
13.5% /
25.0% |
5.5 /
4.3 |
70 /
53 |
53.1% /
53.7% |
48.6% /
49.1% |
51.0% /
42.8% |
5.7 /
6.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
52.9% /
30.2% |
27.4 /
26.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
KC |
27 – 42 L |
1.8 |
33.3% /
60.5% |
7.7% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
9.3 |
50.0% /
42.4% |
25.0% /
9.1% |
3.5 /
5.7 |
75 /
71 |
46.4% /
63.5% |
41.3% /
52.1% |
54.8% /
53.7% |
5.0 /
7.6 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
48.0% /
46.5% |
27.8 /
25.5 |
| 2 |
@NO |
36 – 20 W |
14.2 |
61.0% /
51.1% |
4.9% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.6 /
7.7 |
51.6% /
47.1% |
22.6% /
11.8% |
3.8 /
4.8 |
72 /
62 |
58.3% /
54.2% |
56.9% /
50.0% |
53.2% /
48.3% |
7.7 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
27.4% |
27.5 /
27.9 |
| 3 |
HOU |
36 – 33 W |
1.2 |
47.5% /
48.6% |
12.5% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
8.4 /
8.3 |
45.0% /
56.3% |
30.0% /
15.6% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
60 /
67 |
46.8% /
54.7% |
46.7% /
52.2% |
52.3% /
38.8% |
6.6 /
6.2 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
47.8% |
28.8 /
24.0 |
| 4 |
CAR |
30 – 33 L |
-1.9 |
60.4% /
61.3% |
6.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.1 /
9.8 |
73.7% /
51.7% |
21.1% /
20.7% |
4.2 /
4.8 |
67 /
60 |
66.7% /
54.9% |
64.2% /
56.7% |
22.0% /
48.0% |
5.6 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
28.4% /
48.3% |
26.1 /
26.7 |
| 5 |
@TB |
19 – 14 W |
4.4 |
51.2% /
48.9% |
7.0% /
4.3% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.8 |
47.8% /
55.0% |
17.4% /
20.0% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
67 |
53.7% /
55.6% |
50.0% /
50.7% |
24.6% /
37.2% |
6.1 /
6.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
29.9% |
27.7 /
27.4 |
| 6 |
@NYJ |
24 – 17 W |
-0.1 |
39.5% /
54.0% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
2.6% /
4.3% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
61.5% /
40.0% |
7.7% /
24.0% |
4.6 /
3.0 |
64 /
75 |
49.0% /
50.9% |
48.4% /
49.3% |
29.5% /
46.0% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
1.6% /
1.3% |
40.6% /
33.3% |
28.7 /
24.0 |
| 7 |
ATL |
23 – 7 W |
11.4 |
48.4% /
58.8% |
6.5% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.6 |
56.4% /
54.5% |
12.8% /
18.2% |
4.2 /
5.5 |
70 /
56 |
57.7% /
65.9% |
52.9% /
57.1% |
38.4% /
26.8% |
5.8 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.7% /
39.3% |
28.8 /
21.9 |
| 8 |
LAC |
21 – 13 W |
4.4 |
50.0% /
46.7% |
6.0% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.3 /
6.4 |
43.8% /
66.7% |
28.1% /
19.0% |
3.0 /
7.5 |
82 /
51 |
46.8% /
60.0% |
47.6% /
54.9% |
21.3% /
38.7% |
5.0 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.0% /
41.2% |
30.5 /
20.5 |
| 10 |
@DEN |
41 – 16 W |
14.7 |
65.8% /
39.4% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
7.8 /
6.7 |
55.2% /
44.8% |
13.8% /
13.8% |
3.4 /
4.1 |
67 /
62 |
67.9% /
40.0% |
61.2% /
41.9% |
32.1% /
46.2% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
43.3% /
46.8% |
37.9 /
23.7 |
| 11 |
@OAK |
33 – 8 W |
15.9 |
56.1% /
45.3% |
9.8% /
7.5% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
8.1 /
4.4 |
55.0% /
76.2% |
25.0% /
14.3% |
4.5 /
5.2 |
61 /
74 |
60.4% /
59.6% |
55.7% /
54.1% |
40.2% /
24.4% |
6.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
8.1% |
32.8% /
28.4% |
23.1 /
23.0 |
| 12 |
MIA |
35 – 17 W |
13.1 |
44.8% /
47.5% |
3.4% /
17.5% |
3.6% /
6.1% |
7.6 /
3.9 |
42.9% /
42.1% |
16.7% /
31.6% |
4.8 /
3.5 |
71 /
59 |
50.0% /
51.1% |
43.7% /
45.8% |
69.4% /
23.5% |
5.9 /
3.7 |
1.4% /
1.7% |
59.2% /
32.2% |
31.6 /
25.9 |
| 13 |
@BUF |
23 – 3 W |
9.1 |
54.5% /
18.4% |
9.1% /
10.5% |
3.3% /
2.9% |
7.4 /
2.2 |
40.5% /
69.2% |
18.9% /
11.5% |
5.2 /
7.0 |
70 /
64 |
51.9% /
41.7% |
47.1% /
39.1% |
39.1% /
44.0% |
6.2 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.9% /
40.6% |
29.3 /
23.7 |
| 14 |
@MIA |
20 – 27 L |
-7.4 |
33.3% /
45.0% |
4.4% /
5.0% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
6.1 |
30.0% /
40.6% |
40.0% /
21.9% |
2.5 /
3.8 |
55 /
72 |
40.9% /
50.0% |
32.7% /
43.1% |
56.9% /
35.3% |
4.5 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
18.2% /
44.4% |
24.2 /
28.8 |
| 15 |
@PIT |
27 – 24 W |
-2.6 |
48.6% /
50.0% |
5.4% /
6.3% |
2.9% /
3.3% |
7.6 /
8.4 |
57.1% /
51.6% |
9.5% /
16.1% |
3.8 /
4.6 |
58 /
63 |
59.1% /
46.8% |
51.7% /
50.8% |
44.2% /
39.0% |
6.2 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.2% /
49.2% |
23.1 /
26.6 |
| 16 |
BUF |
37 – 16 W |
2.7 |
56.7% /
40.9% |
6.7% /
13.6% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
5.5 |
59.0% /
54.2% |
7.7% /
25.0% |
5.0 /
3.5 |
69 /
68 |
63.0% /
46.9% |
58.0% /
45.6% |
33.7% /
52.5% |
6.0 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
56.5% /
35.3% |
28.5 /
24.8 |
| 17 |
NYJ |
26 – 6 W |
12.4 |
38.1% /
35.0% |
4.8% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
5.2 |
44.7% /
15.0% |
18.4% /
35.0% |
3.9 /
2.1 |
80 /
60 |
43.8% /
35.6% |
41.3% /
28.3% |
32.4% /
51.2% |
4.1 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.5% /
33.3% |
26.3 /
20.5 |
Tennessee Titans
@ 
New England Patriots