Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – JACKSONVILLE (-12.5) over Tennessee

• Jacksonville can lock up the AFC South and at least the 3 seed with a win.
• Trevor Lawrence is averaging 0.19 EPA/play since the bye week (4th), and he has a favorable matchup to keep it going on Sunday against a desolate Titans’ secondary.
• Tennessee’s defense is down starting safety Xavier Woods, backup safety Kevin Winston, and backup safety Mike Brown. Starting S Amani Hooker has a banged-up ankle. The cluster loss at safety is worth a point.
• The Titans lost starting CB L’Jarius Sneed earlier this season and traded starting CB Brandon Stephens. Backup CB Marcus Harris and CB Jalyn Armour-Davis are also sidelined. Backup cornerback Kemon Hall is allowing 1.11 yards per cover snap more than Armour-Davis.
• Tennessee’s defense will also likely be without edge rusher Arden Key, who has a 12.0% pressure rate. Backup Truman Jones has just a 4.8% pressure rate.
• I expect Cam Ward to be sacked relentlessly in this game. Jaguars’ edge defender Josh Hines-Allen has 86 pressures (3rd), and he will wreak havoc across from LT Dan Moore, who ranks 8th-worst in pass blocking efficiency.
• WR Chimere Dike leads Tennessee’s offense in targets since WR Calvin Ridley was sidelined in week 11, but Dike is averaging 0.34 EPA/target fewer than Ridley.
• Our model makes Jacksonville a 13.9-point favorite, with a predicted total of 48.4 points, and the Jaguars apply to a 34-4 ATS subset of a 117-59-2 ATS situation – and a 43-12-4 ATS final game big home favorite angle.

Jacksonville is a Strong Opinion at -13.5 or less.