Game Analysis
Lean – Tennessee (-4.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Ryan Tannehill averaged only 4.5 yppp last week without AJ Brown and Julio Jones in uniform. I think star wide receivers have a chance to be back on the field this Sunday. Jacksonville traded CB CJ Henderson and backup Tyson Campbell surrendered 133 yards and five first downs last week. The Jaguars pass defense ranks 29th and would struggle to contain Brown or Jones.
Derrick Henry has 30 more carries than any player in the NFL and Tennessee’s offense will likely keep feeding him due to the banged-up receivers. However, Jacksonville’s rush defense ranks 4th thanks in part to LB Damien Wilson, who has a 10.4% run stop rate (5th).
Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence is coming off his best game as a pro (8.1 yppp) but the Jaguars are dealing with two notable losses in RG AJ Cann and WR DJ Chark. Cann ranked 12th in pass blocking efficiency last season. DJ Chark hauled in 10 receptions on passes with 20+ air yards last year (12th) and already had 3 deep receptions this season. Jacksonville’s offense will be about a point worse on offense without Cann and Chark.
Our model favors the Titans by 5.0 with a predicted total of 46.9.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.3
35.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.7%
39.7%
-
Sack Rate
9.3%
5.7%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.2%
18.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
22.1%
54.6%
-
NYPP
6.4
8.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
34.0
23.3
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
26.2%
24.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.8%
54.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.8%
28.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
76.3
58.8
-
Early Down Succ
50.2%
47.0%
-
Succ Rate
46.6%
45.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
32.3%
48.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
6.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.5%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.3
28.1
-
Run Ratio
44.8%
39.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
-3.9
3.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
34.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.5%
55.9%
-
Sack Rate
4.2%
3.5%
-
Int Rate
4.5%
0.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.9%
19.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.6%
48.4%
-
NYPP
6.0
9.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.8
30.8
-
RB YPR
4.8
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
17.0%
23.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
57.8%
49.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.9%
20.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
59.8
65.3
-
Early Down Succ
52.9%
56.2%
-
Succ Rate
49.0%
52.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.3%
41.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
6.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.7
32.0
-
Run Ratio
38.5%
46.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
-4.2
4.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
ARZ |
13 – 38 L |
-15.6 |
42.9% /
41.2% |
14.3% /
5.9% |
2.8% /
3.1% |
5.2 /
8.5 |
45.5% /
53.1% |
36.4% /
21.9% |
3.9 /
4.0 |
64 /
66 |
50.0% /
46.2% |
43.8% /
47.0% |
24.3% /
47.4% |
4.8 /
6.3 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
34.4% /
48.5% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
@SEA |
33 – 30 W |
-5.5 |
53.5% /
41.2% |
7.0% /
8.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.1 /
10.1 |
52.5% /
55.6% |
22.5% /
22.2% |
5.3 /
4.3 |
83 /
52 |
57.6% /
51.3% |
53.0% /
46.2% |
31.3% /
58.6% |
6.7 /
8.1 |
1.2% /
0.0% |
48.2% /
34.6% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 3 |
IND |
25 – 16 W |
4.3 |
53.6% /
30.8% |
3.6% /
5.1% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
5.0 |
37.8% /
61.1% |
27.0% /
16.7% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
65 /
57 |
42.3% /
42.9% |
44.6% /
40.4% |
39.8% /
30.6% |
5.8 /
4.9 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
56.9% /
31.6% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 4 |
@NYJ |
24 – 27 L |
1.1 |
41.1% /
45.7% |
12.5% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
5.3 /
8.5 |
51.4% /
48.0% |
18.9% /
36.0% |
4.8 /
2.6 |
93 /
60 |
50.7% /
47.8% |
45.2% /
46.7% |
33.9% /
57.3% |
5.1 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.8% /
41.7% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@HST |
21 – 37 L |
-14.4 |
38.5% /
55.9% |
1.9% /
2.9% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
8.6 |
62.5% /
48.8% |
18.8% /
19.5% |
4.8 /
3.9 |
68 /
75 |
47.3% /
50.9% |
44.1% /
52.0% |
38.7% /
46.6% |
6.0 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.5% /
54.7% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
DEN |
13 – 23 L |
-3.4 |
32.4% /
51.4% |
2.9% /
8.1% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
8.9 |
50.0% /
46.7% |
18.8% /
33.3% |
4.7 /
3.2 |
50 /
67 |
36.8% /
56.9% |
38.0% /
49.3% |
42.5% /
34.9% |
3.9 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.0% /
44.8% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 3 |
ARZ |
19 – 31 L |
-3.3 |
51.4% /
61.8% |
8.1% /
0.0% |
5.9% /
2.9% |
5.9 /
9.3 |
65.5% /
56.7% |
17.2% /
23.3% |
5.5 /
3.0 |
66 /
64 |
67.3% /
66.0% |
57.6% /
59.4% |
32.0% /
34.9% |
5.7 /
6.4 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
46.9% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 4 |
@CIN |
21 – 24 L |
4.4 |
60.0% /
54.5% |
4.0% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
10.5 |
53.3% /
45.5% |
13.3% /
18.2% |
4.6 /
3.5 |
55 /
55 |
60.0% /
51.1% |
56.4% /
50.9% |
47.8% /
49.8% |
6.2 /
7.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.5% /
40.0% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
Tennessee Titans
@ 
Jacksonville Jaguars