Game Analysis

Lean – Tennessee (-2.5) over JACKSONVILLE

Jacksonville looked impressive in week 1 winning at Houston 29-7, good for a +22 point margin. However, my adjusted EPA (adjEPA) metric only gives the Jaguars credit for an 11 point win – mostly due to the Texans losing 3 fumbles (one returned for a touchdown).

Much will be made of Leonard Fournette’s 100-yard rushing debut against a stingy Houston rush defense but the Jags actually performed much worse on the ground this game than they did last season with -0.10 adjEPA/rush compared to -0.02 adjEPA/rush in 2016 – which equates to about 2 points per game. I don’t expect Fournette to have a much better time in week 2 as the Titans rush defense was nearly as good as the Texans’ run defense last season.

Despite a 10 point loss in week 1, Tennessee actually slightly outplayed Oakland in adjEPA with an expected point margin of +0.7 points. The Titans and Raiders gained 5.6 and 5.7 yppl respectively – the difference was in the Redzone and Special Teams. The Raiders scored touchdowns on two of their three trips to the Redzone while the Titans only scored one touchdown on their three trips. Also, new Oakland kicker Giorgio Tavecchio made all 4 of his FG attempts including one from 52 yards, while Tennessee kicker Ryan Succop missed one of his two 50+ yard attempts.

Jacksonville was impressive last week in their upset win but the Jags may be due for a fall. Teams that won their opening game by more than 10 points and covered the spread by more than 15 points as an underdog are just 6-29 ATS in week 2 if their opponent did not cover the spread in week 1. Tennessee also applies to a more general 70-27 ATS contrary situation. My ratings favor Tennessee by 2 points, so there isn’t much line value here but the situation certainly favors the Titans.