Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5) over Tennessee

Andrew Luck has not been sacked since left tackle Anthony Castanzo made his season debut on October 14th, and that streak of 4 games without a sack is the longest in the NFL since 2010. In fact, it’s nearly been 5 games without a sack as Luck was taken down on the second play of the Patriots game. Luck has now gone 185 pass plays without being sacked and his offensive line should give him plenty of time to find T.Y. Hilton downfield in a favorable matchup. Hilton will line up across from Malcolm Butler, who’s the only qualifying cornerback surrendering more than 2 yards per cover snap, and he should be featured heavily in this game with Tennessee likely to take away Luck’s bread and butter, the tight end. The Colts target tight ends on 29% of passes (2nd-most), but the Titans allow just 5.8 yards per target to opposing tight ends (2nd-fewest).

For Tennessee, Corey Davis was impressive with 125 yards and a touchdown last week against the Patriots’ Stephon Gilmore, who ranked 5th in yards allowed per cover snap among corners coming into the game. The former top 5 pick now ranks 15th among wide receivers with 2.10 yards per route run and he could be a real threat in the second half of the season if he develops some consistency. Marcus Mariota is now fully healthy after playing hurt much of the season and he’s gained 7.3 yards per pass play with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions since their bye week. Indianapolis’ pass defense ranks 31st in our numbers and I expect Mariota’s success to continue.

Our model favors Indianapolis by 3.7 points and Tennessee applies to a 40-95-3 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their upset home win over the Pats. I’ll lean with the Colts at -2.5 or less.

Team Stats
Game Log

Titans
Colts

TEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 29.7 34.8
Succ Pass Plays 49.3% 48.9%
Sack Rate 11.5% 7.4%
Int Rate 2.3% 2.9%
Deep Pass Rate 17.4% 18.8%
Big Pass Yards 35.3% 37.9%
NYPP 6.2 6.8

Rush

Rush Plays 29.9 25.7
RB YPR 3.3 3.7
Stuff Rate 22.5% 21.9%
Succ Rush Plays 43.3% 44.5%
Big Rush Yards 38.8% 33.7%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.9

Game

All Snaps 59.6 60.4
Early Down Succ 45.3% 48.1%
Succ Rate 45.9% 46.4%
Big Yards Rate 37.1% 39.4%
Yards Per Play 4.9 5.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.8 30.0
Run Ratio 50.3% 43.0%
Starting Field Pos 27.5 29.5
Game Control -0.4 0.4

Points 18.3 16.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIA	17 – 27 L	-3.5	36.8% / 55.2%	0.0% / 3.4%	7.9% / 7.1%	5.8 / 7.7	44.8% / 53.3%	17.2% / 26.7%	4.0 / 4.1	67 / 59	41.2% / 66.7%	40.3% / 54.2%	17.0% / 44.3%	5.0 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 50.8%	29.2 / 35.5
2	HOU	20 – 17 W	6.4	39.1% / 48.6%	4.3% / 11.4%	0.0% / 3.2%	8.0 / 8.3	35.3% / 42.3%	14.7% / 11.5%	2.9 / 5.7	57 / 61	35.0% / 46.0%	36.8% / 45.9%	27.9% / 53.1%	5.0 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	59.6% / 42.6%	23.2 / 26.6
3	@JAC	9 – 6 W	1.5	45.8% / 37.8%	12.5% / 8.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.5 / 3.9	42.9% / 52.6%	25.7% / 15.8%	4.3 / 4.6	59 / 56	47.7% / 46.3%	44.1% / 42.9%	34.3% / 10.3%	3.9 / 4.1	0.0% / 1.8%	59.3% / 33.9%	28.2 / 23.3
4	PHI	26 – 23 W	-2.6	47.8% / 46.3%	6.5% / 7.4%	2.3% / 0.0%	7.1 / 5.8	39.1% / 36.4%	34.8% / 13.6%	3.1 / 5.3	69 / 76	47.9% / 45.9%	44.9% / 43.4%	38.9% / 41.0%	5.8 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.3%	33.3% / 28.9%	24.4 / 28.0
5	@BUF	12 – 13 L	-2.6	81.3% / 63.6%	12.5% / 9.1%	7.1% / 10.0%	7.6 / 7.2	56.0% / 46.5%	16.0% / 20.9%	4.0 / 3.3	41 / 54	51.2% / 43.8%	65.9% / 50.0%	29.0% / 18.8%	5.4 / 4.1	4.9% / 0.0%	61.0% / 79.6%	30.2 / 34.8
6	BAL	0 – 21 L	-13.2	26.9% / 45.9%	42.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.7%	2.0 / 6.4	28.6% / 44.4%	35.7% / 27.8%	3.9 / 3.4	40 / 73	33.3% / 37.7%	27.5% / 45.2%	42.5% / 44.5%	2.7 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	35.0% / 49.3%	21.9 / 29.9
7	@LAC	19 – 20 L	-4.9	58.8% / 57.1%	5.9% / 7.1%	3.1% / 0.0%	6.6 / 10.6	48.5% / 35.3%	18.2% / 17.6%	5.0 / 2.8	67 / 45	51.0% / 52.9%	53.7% / 48.9%	33.1% / 55.4%	5.8 / 7.7	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 37.8%	27.5 / 29.0
9	@DAL	28 – 14 W	2.1	51.5% / 45.9%	12.1% / 13.5%	0.0% / 3.1%	6.5 / 6.1	47.5% / 57.9%	15.0% / 26.3%	3.2 / 3.8	73 / 56	47.2% / 52.3%	49.3% / 50.0%	43.6% / 43.1%	4.7 / 5.3	2.7% / 1.8%	54.8% / 33.9%	28.6 / 33.8
10	NE	34 – 10 W	13.0	55.6% / 40.0%	7.4% / 6.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.7 / 5.4	47.2% / 31.6%	25.0% / 36.8%	4.2 / 2.1	63 / 64	52.9% / 41.3%	50.8% / 37.5%	67.5% / 44.4%	6.1 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	57.1% / 29.7%	34.2 / 24.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CIN	23 – 34 L	3.1	56.4% / 60.0%	3.6% / 6.7%	1.9% / 3.6%	5.5 / 7.6	54.5% / 65.0%	22.7% / 20.0%	3.4 / 5.1	77 / 50	53.3% / 64.3%	55.8% / 62.0%	10.0% / 38.8%	4.9 / 6.6	1.3% / 2.0%	28.6% / 40.0%	33.4 / 26.2
2	@WAS	21 – 9 W	8.3	43.8% / 48.9%	3.1% / 6.4%	6.5% / 0.0%	5.5 / 5.7	40.0% / 40.9%	13.3% / 40.9%	3.5 / 3.0	62 / 69	40.5% / 50.0%	41.9% / 46.4%	25.4% / 28.1%	4.6 / 4.8	0.0% / 1.4%	48.4% / 31.9%	24.7 / 29.3
3	@PHI	16 – 20 L	-0.6	39.5% / 47.6%	4.7% / 11.9%	0.0% / 2.7%	3.3 / 5.4	38.5% / 60.0%	23.1% / 28.6%	5.2 / 4.3	56 / 77	45.2% / 55.6%	39.3% / 53.2%	46.9% / 34.0%	3.7 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.3%	23.2% / 45.5%	36.1 / 21.6
4	HOU	34 – 37 L	-6.7	48.5% / 55.3%	6.1% / 14.9%	0.0% / 2.5%	6.6 / 7.4	41.2% / 42.9%	41.2% / 28.6%	2.4 / 3.4	83 / 82	44.6% / 49.2%	47.0% / 50.0%	26.6% / 37.1%	5.8 / 5.7	2.4% / 0.0%	20.5% / 42.7%	24.1 / 33.4
5	@NE	24 – 38 L	-12.6	76.9% / 88.2%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.3% / 5.9%	9.1 / 10.0	47.6% / 44.0%	4.8% / 20.0%	4.0 / 4.0	60 / 59	49.2% / 65.5%	66.7% / 69.5%	28.7% / 26.8%	7.3 / 7.5	1.7% / 0.0%	35.0% / 42.4%	27.9 / 35.5
6	@NYJ	34 – 42 L	-6.3	46.5% / 67.7%	0.0% / 6.5%	7.0% / 3.4%	7.0 / 8.6	60.9% / 23.1%	17.4% / 28.2%	5.5 / 2.8	66 / 70	54.7% / 48.0%	51.5% / 42.9%	32.5% / 41.9%	6.5 / 5.4	1.5% / 1.4%	34.8% / 55.7%	32.7 / 40.5
7	BUF	37 – 5 W	16.0	56.5% / 39.4%	0.0% / 6.1%	0.0% / 9.7%	6.8 / 5.1	43.9% / 50.0%	14.6% / 31.8%	5.5 / 6.1	64 / 55	53.5% / 48.9%	48.4% / 43.6%	53.2% / 39.9%	5.9 / 5.5	0.0% / 3.6%	64.1% / 40.0%	36.3 / 22.8
8	@OAK	42 – 28 W	1.5	61.3% / 57.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.7 / 8.7	66.7% / 55.0%	11.9% / 15.0%	5.3 / 5.2	73 / 48	66.7% / 61.1%	64.4% / 56.3%	36.3% / 47.4%	6.3 / 7.3	0.0% / 2.1%	57.5% / 41.7%	35.6 / 26.1
10	JAC	29 – 26 W	7.6	55.2% / 56.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.4% / 0.0%	9.8 / 8.3	32.0% / 50.0%	32.0% / 32.4%	3.4 / 2.7	54 / 73	47.4% / 50.9%	44.4% / 53.4%	60.4% / 37.3%	6.8 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.4%	46.3% / 46.6%	24.1 / 31.0

Tennessee Titans @

Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Nov 18

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis