Game Analysis
Lean – Under (46) – INDIANAPOLIS vs Tennessee (-3.5)
The Colts and Titans both rank top 10 in rushing rate after factoring out garbage time and Tennessee is the 4th slowest team in terms of pace. My algorithm projects this matchup to have the lowest amount of combined plays in any game this week. Furthermore, I do not expect either offense to perform particularly well in their limited plays.
Jacoby Brissett cleared concussion protocol and will be under center for this game. Still, Indianapolis will likely be cautious with Brissett and be forced to run against a Titans defense allowing just 3.6 yards per rush (4th). Also, I expect Brissett’s scrambling ability to be dampened due to the concussion risk. Tennessee should not have much trouble getting stops if they can limit T.Y. Hilton’s big plays.
On the surface, it would seem Marcus Mariota has an excellent matchup against a Colts defense ranked last in yards per pass play allowed. However, the Indianapolis secondary was looking much improved heading into the bye week and their pass defense ranks 14th in my numbers from week 8 onwards. I expect the Colts defense to perform better than in week 6 against the Titans when they surrendered 7.1 yards per play.
But, even using season numbers, adjusted for Mariota’s snaps only for the Titans, I get a projected total of 43 points and I lean under based on the line value.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.8
40.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.8%
46.5%
-
Sack Rate
7.0%
4.0%
-
Int Rate
4.4%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.2%
17.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.6%
24.6%
-
NYPP
6.1
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.5
25.8
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
26.0%
21.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.6%
43.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.7%
26.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
63.3
65.8
-
Early Down Succ
48.3%
49.4%
-
Succ Rate
44.3%
45.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.5%
25.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.6
27.1
-
Run Ratio
44.9%
39.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.3
29.3
-
Game Control
-1.6
1.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.0
36.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.6%
47.9%
-
Sack Rate
10.8%
5.3%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.1%
23.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.5%
52.1%
-
NYPP
6.1
7.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.0
28.9
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
23.5%
23.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.0%
38.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.1%
40.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
63.0
65.6
-
Early Down Succ
42.3%
43.9%
-
Succ Rate
40.2%
42.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.3%
49.6%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
28.2
-
Run Ratio
44.6%
44.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.1
26.8
-
Game Control
-1.5
1.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
OAK |
16 – 26 L |
-4.4 |
50.0% /
55.9% |
2.4% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
7.4 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
28.6% /
16.7% |
4.5 /
3.7 |
63 /
64 |
46.9% /
57.1% |
47.6% /
53.1% |
33.1% /
26.7% |
5.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
46.9% |
22.4 /
29.3 |
| 2 |
@JAC |
37 – 16 W |
7.9 |
42.9% /
41.7% |
3.6% /
5.6% |
3.7% /
5.9% |
7.5 /
5.9 |
68.4% /
64.0% |
10.5% /
12.0% |
4.8 /
4.0 |
66 /
61 |
64.0% /
52.1% |
57.6% /
50.8% |
41.6% /
23.5% |
5.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
57.6% /
41.0% |
39.9 /
23.4 |
| 3 |
SEA |
33 – 27 W |
4.9 |
51.6% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
44.4% /
40.9% |
22.2% /
31.8% |
5.4 /
3.1 |
67 /
72 |
54.9% /
51.8% |
47.8% /
47.2% |
44.9% /
38.8% |
6.3 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.7% /
30.6% |
29.6 /
23.3 |
| 4 |
@HOU |
14 – 57 L |
-20.6 |
40.9% /
58.3% |
9.1% /
5.6% |
20.0% /
2.9% |
5.0 /
7.6 |
35.0% /
50.0% |
15.0% /
14.3% |
4.4 /
4.1 |
42 /
78 |
43.8% /
53.8% |
38.1% /
53.8% |
52.6% /
28.5% |
4.7 /
5.7 |
2.4% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
53.8% |
21.9 /
38.0 |
| 5 |
@MIA |
10 – 16 L |
-4.2 |
36.8% /
25.0% |
15.8% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
3.1 /
2.8 |
30.0% /
43.8% |
45.0% /
28.1% |
3.5 /
3.2 |
58 /
60 |
40.0% /
37.2% |
34.5% /
35.0% |
19.1% /
6.1% |
3.2 /
3.0 |
3.4% /
1.7% |
34.5% /
53.3% |
25.1 /
27.0 |
| 6 |
IND |
36 – 22 W |
-1.2 |
57.6% /
51.4% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
5.7 |
42.9% /
40.0% |
20.0% /
20.0% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
68 /
57 |
51.9% /
53.2% |
50.0% /
47.4% |
42.2% /
22.6% |
7.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
51.5% /
35.1% |
27.4 /
26.5 |
| 7 |
@CLE |
12 – 9 W |
2.1 |
41.7% /
39.0% |
5.6% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
5.3 /
5.3 |
31.3% /
25.9% |
46.9% /
22.2% |
2.5 /
2.5 |
68 /
68 |
38.0% /
37.3% |
36.8% /
33.8% |
14.5% /
23.9% |
4.0 /
4.2 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
39.7% |
33.6 /
25.1 |
| 9 |
BAL |
23 – 20 W |
6.3 |
51.6% /
49.1% |
9.7% /
3.6% |
3.6% /
3.8% |
6.0 /
4.9 |
36.4% /
40.9% |
22.7% /
22.7% |
3.3 /
3.3 |
53 /
77 |
53.8% /
47.4% |
45.3% /
46.8% |
49.0% /
8.2% |
4.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.5% /
28.6% |
34.6 /
24.8 |
| 10 |
CIN |
24 – 20 W |
2.6 |
43.8% /
38.9% |
8.3% /
2.8% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.1 |
52.8% /
50.0% |
16.7% /
28.6% |
5.0 /
3.8 |
84 /
50 |
46.4% /
48.7% |
47.6% /
42.0% |
34.6% /
51.0% |
5.0 /
6.2 |
1.2% /
4.0% |
42.9% /
28.0% |
26.1 /
30.9 |
| 11 |
@PIT |
17 – 40 L |
-9.1 |
41.0% /
55.3% |
12.8% /
6.4% |
11.8% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
6.0 |
32.0% /
33.3% |
32.0% /
16.7% |
2.2 /
2.8 |
64 /
71 |
42.9% /
55.6% |
37.5% /
47.9% |
53.3% /
26.7% |
5.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.1% /
33.8% |
22.2 /
44.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LA |
9 – 46 L |
-21.3 |
28.0% /
54.8% |
16.0% /
3.2% |
9.5% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
10.0 |
32.0% /
22.5% |
28.0% /
22.5% |
3.0 /
1.7 |
50 /
71 |
40.5% /
43.5% |
30.0% /
36.6% |
81.4% /
52.7% |
4.5 /
5.3 |
2.0% /
1.4% |
50.0% /
56.3% |
23.1 /
35.8 |
| 2 |
ARI |
13 – 16 L |
6.3 |
41.5% /
40.0% |
9.8% /
10.0% |
2.7% /
2.8% |
4.6 /
7.7 |
34.5% /
34.6% |
24.1% /
11.5% |
2.6 /
3.2 |
70 /
66 |
36.5% /
39.6% |
38.6% /
37.9% |
16.5% /
63.6% |
3.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
39.4% |
24.5 /
29.6 |
| 3 |
CLE |
31 – 28 W |
9.2 |
33.3% /
35.4% |
11.1% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
6.4% |
9.0 /
4.9 |
27.0% /
57.1% |
37.8% /
19.0% |
2.5 /
5.3 |
64 /
69 |
24.4% /
42.9% |
29.7% /
42.0% |
63.7% /
53.8% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
57.8% /
30.4% |
29.6 /
28.9 |
| 4 |
@SEA |
18 – 46 L |
-7.0 |
37.5% /
65.5% |
9.4% /
10.3% |
3.4% /
7.7% |
4.3 /
9.8 |
52.0% /
42.4% |
8.0% /
24.2% |
3.9 /
5.9 |
57 /
62 |
44.2% /
47.8% |
43.9% /
53.2% |
30.0% /
67.7% |
4.2 /
7.7 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
53.2% |
28.3 /
20.2 |
| 5 |
SF |
26 – 23 W |
3.3 |
44.7% /
50.0% |
10.5% /
4.2% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
7.0 |
32.4% /
31.8% |
32.4% /
31.8% |
4.4 /
3.0 |
75 /
70 |
38.2% /
46.3% |
38.7% /
44.3% |
58.1% /
37.3% |
6.0 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
31.4% |
28.8 /
17.5 |
| 6 |
@TEN |
22 – 36 L |
1.2 |
51.4% /
57.6% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
5.7 /
9.2 |
40.0% /
42.9% |
20.0% /
20.0% |
4.3 /
4.8 |
57 /
68 |
53.2% /
51.9% |
47.4% /
50.0% |
22.6% /
42.2% |
5.2 /
7.0 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
35.1% /
51.5% |
26.5 /
27.4 |
| 7 |
JAC |
0 – 27 L |
-18.7 |
34.0% /
53.6% |
21.3% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.9 /
11.8 |
60.0% /
44.7% |
20.0% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
67 /
66 |
46.9% /
49.0% |
41.8% /
48.5% |
41.4% /
61.8% |
3.5 /
7.9 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
29.9% /
57.6% |
28.0 /
20.1 |
| 8 |
@CIN |
23 – 24 L |
0.5 |
39.5% /
43.8% |
9.3% /
9.4% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
6.8 |
60.7% /
30.4% |
10.7% /
30.4% |
4.1 /
2.6 |
71 /
55 |
48.1% /
40.0% |
47.9% /
38.2% |
18.1% /
46.0% |
4.7 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
39.4% /
41.8% |
31.4 /
32.7 |
| 9 |
@HOU |
20 – 14 W |
6.3 |
45.5% /
28.3% |
9.1% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
4.2 |
44.8% /
38.1% |
20.7% /
14.3% |
3.2 /
4.5 |
62 /
67 |
51.1% /
32.7% |
45.2% /
31.3% |
55.6% /
31.6% |
6.0 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
1.5% |
46.8% /
31.3% |
19.1 /
24.2 |
| 10 |
PIT |
17 – 20 L |
5.1 |
40.7% /
50.0% |
11.1% /
3.1% |
4.2% /
3.2% |
7.3 /
7.1 |
36.7% /
36.7% |
33.3% /
36.7% |
2.4 /
2.9 |
57 /
62 |
40.0% /
44.9% |
38.6% /
43.5% |
45.1% /
38.9% |
4.7 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.6% /
48.4% |
21.6 /
31.7 |
Tennessee Titans
@ 
Indianapolis Colts