Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (41) – HOUSTON vs Tennessee

• Tennessee’s offensive line ranks 31st in pass-blocking efficiency and the situation on the right side is so dire the Titans can’t even decide rotating between Isaiah Prince and Nicholas Petit-Frere against the Vikings. Prince or Petit-Frere will struggle across from Texans edge rusher Danielle Hunter, who has 48 pressures (4th).
• Furthermore, Houston’s defense will likely be getting back edge defender Will Anderson, who missed the last two games and ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency. Anderson is worth 0.9 points to the Texans’ defense according to our metrics.
• Will Levis has established a rapport with WR Calvin Ridley, who is averaging 2.41 yards per route run since DeAndre Hopkins was traded. However, Ridley will be shut down in this game by Houston CB Derek Stingley, who is conceding just 0.62 yards per cover snap (4th).
• The Texans’ yppp against two-high safeties is just 88% of the yppp versus single-high and CJ Stroud will struggle as Tennessee’s defense has a 64% two-high safety rate (4th-highest).
• Titans interior defender Jeffery Simmons has 29 pressures (12th) and he will wreak havoc as Houston’s interior offensive line is at fault for 57% of the allowed pressures (5th-most).
• Our model favors the Texans by 11.1 points, with a predicted total of 38.7 points, but Tennessee applies to a 425-273-25 ATS contrary angle that is based on the difference in spread win percentage. I used Tennessee in my spread pool.

Under is a Strong Opinion at -41 -115 or better.