Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Tennessee (+5.5) over HOUSTON

· The Texans will have CJ Stroud back under center this week but they will be without plenty of other starters including WR Tank Dell, who averaged 2.24 yards per route run (13th) before fracturing his fibula in week 13. Houston’s offense will also be without starting guard Tytus Howard.

· The Texans’ defense likely won’t have edge defender Jonathan Greenard, who ranks 18th in pass-rushing efficiency. Houston edge rusher Will Anderson is also in line to miss this game. Anderson and Greenard have combined for 38% of Houston’s defensive lineman pressures this season.

· Texans’ interior defender Maliek Collins has 44 pressures (16th) but he is banged up and possibly out this week.

· The Titans’ starting quarterback isn’t decided but we know Ryan Tannehill or Will Levis will have a favorable matchup. Tennessee’s offense is averaging 42% more yards per attempt versus zone coverage compared to man this year (3rd-largest gap) and Houston’s defense has an 82.4% zone coverage rate (7th-highest).

· Titans starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting will likely be back to limit WR Nico Collins, who is averaging 0.57 EPA/target (4th).

· Our model favors the Texans by 4.2 points, with a predicted total of 46.3 points. While there is some line value favor Tennessee, the main reason for this play is the strong situation that the Titans are in. Tennessee applies to a 196-87-6 ATS road underdog situation and a 57-7-1 ATS road dog division revenge situation. Houston, meanwhile, applies to a negative 63-136-3 ATS situation. Tennessee gets my highest technical analysis ratings and those such games have been 58% plays going back 20 years, including 16-10-2 this season.

Tennessee is a 1-Star Best Bet at +4.5 or more (Strong Opinion at +4).