Game Analysis

Lean – Over (45) – DETROIT (-11) vs Tennessee

• The Titans had about a 10% chance at getting the first overall pick in next year’s draft and they are looking to increase the probability after a 1-5 start by trading WR DeAndre Hopkins, who is averaging 1.64 yards per route run. Tennessee backup wide receiver Nick Westbrook is averaging 0.38 yards per route run and he’s an obvious downgrade.
• Detroit’s defense had a 33% blitz rate in the first game without edge defender Aidan Hutchinson, up from a 28% blitz rate previously, and I expect defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to call plenty of Cover 1 to compensate for the loss of the Pro Bowler. Tennessee’s yppp against Cover 1 is only 62% of the yppp versus other coverages (31st) and the Lions already have the 2nd-highest Cover 1 rate.
• Titans WR Calvin Ridley has target shares of 30% and 24% in the last two weeks but just 3 receptions for 42 yards. I think Ridley is in line to bounce back if he can suit up on Sunday, as he’d be lined up across from CB Carlton Davis, who is surrendering 1.55 yards per cover snap (5th-worst).
• Jared Goff is 16 of 18 for 342 yards and 4 touchdowns when pressured during the last two games, which cannot be sustained. Goff is averaging 9.3 yards per attempt when pressured this season and he averaged just 6.4 ypa facing pressure last year.
• Detroit starting RG Kevin Zeitler suffered a groin injury in practice and was inactive against Minnesota. Backup guard Kayode Awosika surrendered 4 pressures last week. However, Zeitler will likely return to the field for this game to limit Titans interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who has at least 44 pressures in each of his last four full years.
• The Lions are targeting running backs on 22% of passes (6th-most) but the screens will be contained as Tennessee’s defense is conceding just a 34% receiving success rate to opposing RBs (4th).
• Titans nickelback Roger McCreary is conceding 0.69 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd) and he will battle on the inside with WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has a 59% success rate (12th).
• Detroit WR Jameson Williams is averaging 0.40 EPA/target (17th) but he is suspended and worth 0.7 points by our metrics.
• The model likes the over even after accounting for the loss of Hopkins, Williams, and the matchup edge for both defenses because Tennessee will likely be without starting cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie. Plus, the Hutchison loss can’t be overstated.
• Our model favors the Lions by 10.7 points, with a predicted total of 49.6 points – but just a lean on the over due to the matchups.