Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – DALLAS (-4.5) vs Tennessee
The line on this game has come back down from a height of 6.5 points and now there is solid value on the Cowboys. Acquiring WR Amari Cooper from the Raiders should be able to help this Cowboys offense. The former first-round wide receiver opened his career with two consecutive 1000-yards seasons but hasn’t made the same kind of impact over the past couple of years. Still, Cooper is probably the most talented receiver on the Cowboys roster and a change of scenery may benefit him. Josh Gordon ran only 9 routes in his first game after being traded to the Patriots as it typically takes time for new receivers to get integrated into the offense following a mid-season trade, but Cooper had an extra week to prepare following the bye week so I’m expecting to see him out there for at least half the snaps. Dak Prescott should make use of his new weapon if he has enough time to throw. Dallas fired their offensive line coach and right guard Zack Martin, who’s made the Pro Bowl every season of his career, has been upgraded to probable in time to battle Titans DT Jurrell Casey, who ranks 11th among interior defensive linemen in pass rush efficiency. We value the addition of Cooper as worth 0.4 points for now but having Martin playing is actually more valuable.
The Cowboys defense may still be underrated with Sean Lee in the lineup as they’re 1.6 yards per play better in games he’s suited up this season. I expect WR Corey Davis, who’s seen 23 more targets than any other Tennessee player, to be shut down by Dallas CB Byron Jones. Jones’ transition to cornerback has been amazing, as he’s conceded just 0.56 yards per cover snap, which ranks 3rd best in the league at his position. Marcus Mariota should still have time to find other receivers downfield as Jack Conklin, who’s allowed just 4 sacks in his first three seasons, should limit DeMarcus Lawrence, who ranks 7th in pass rush efficiency among edge rushers.
We think the Dallas offense may improve with the addition of Amari Cooper and Zack Martin and their defense is much better with Sean Lee on the field. Our model favors the Cowboys by 7.6 points and I’ll lean consider the Cowboys a Strong Opinion at -4.5 points and I’d play Dallas in a 1-Star Best Bet at -4 points (at -110 odds).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
29.6
33.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.1%
50.7%
-
Sack Rate
12.0%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
2.9%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.6%
20.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
28.5%
34.9%
-
NYPP
5.8
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.6
27.6
-
RB YPR
3.4
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
23.2%
19.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.2%
44.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.7%
37.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
57.1
60.6
-
Early Down Succ
43.9%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
44.7%
47.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
31.8%
38.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
32.4
31.1
-
Run Ratio
48.7%
46.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.4
29.6
-
Game Control
-2.7
2.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.1
32.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.0%
50.5%
-
Sack Rate
10.0%
8.0%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
1.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.9%
17.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.4%
33.9%
-
NYPP
6.2
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.4
28.0
-
RB YPR
4.4
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
21.6%
28.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.1%
39.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.9%
37.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.0
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
59.6
60.6
-
Early Down Succ
46.2%
46.0%
-
Succ Rate
43.7%
44.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.4%
36.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.1
30.2
-
Run Ratio
47.6%
45.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.7
29.2
-
Game Control
1.6
-1.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@MIA |
17 – 27 L |
-3.5 |
36.8% / 55.2% |
0.0% / 3.4% |
7.9% / 7.1% |
5.8 / 7.7 |
44.8% / 53.3% |
17.2% / 26.7% |
4.0 / 4.1 |
67 / 59 |
41.2% / 66.7% |
40.3% / 54.2% |
17.0% / 44.3% |
5.0 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.3% / 50.8% |
29.2 / 35.5 |
2 |
HOU |
20 – 17 W |
6.4 |
39.1% / 48.6% |
4.3% / 11.4% |
0.0% / 3.2% |
8.0 / 8.3 |
35.3% / 42.3% |
14.7% / 11.5% |
2.9 / 5.7 |
57 / 61 |
35.0% / 46.0% |
36.8% / 45.9% |
27.9% / 53.1% |
5.0 / 7.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
59.6% / 42.6% |
23.2 / 26.6 |
3 |
@JAC |
9 – 6 W |
1.5 |
45.8% / 37.8% |
12.5% / 8.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.5 / 3.9 |
42.9% / 52.6% |
25.7% / 15.8% |
4.3 / 4.6 |
59 / 56 |
47.7% / 46.3% |
44.1% / 42.9% |
34.3% / 10.3% |
3.9 / 4.1 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
59.3% / 33.9% |
28.2 / 23.3 |
4 |
PHI |
26 – 23 W |
-2.6 |
47.8% / 46.3% |
6.5% / 7.4% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
7.1 / 5.8 |
39.1% / 36.4% |
34.8% / 13.6% |
3.1 / 5.3 |
69 / 76 |
47.9% / 45.9% |
44.9% / 43.4% |
38.9% / 41.0% |
5.8 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
33.3% / 28.9% |
24.4 / 28.0 |
5 |
@BUF |
12 – 13 L |
-2.6 |
81.3% / 63.6% |
12.5% / 9.1% |
7.1% / 10.0% |
7.6 / 7.2 |
56.0% / 46.5% |
16.0% / 20.9% |
4.0 / 3.3 |
41 / 54 |
51.2% / 43.8% |
65.9% / 50.0% |
29.0% / 18.8% |
5.4 / 4.1 |
4.9% / 0.0% |
61.0% / 79.6% |
30.2 / 34.8 |
6 |
BAL |
0 – 21 L |
-13.2 |
26.9% / 45.9% |
42.3% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
2.0 / 6.4 |
28.6% / 44.4% |
35.7% / 27.8% |
3.9 / 3.4 |
40 / 73 |
33.3% / 37.7% |
27.5% / 45.2% |
42.5% / 44.5% |
2.7 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.0% / 49.3% |
21.9 / 29.9 |
7 |
@LAC |
19 – 20 L |
-4.9 |
58.8% / 57.1% |
5.9% / 7.1% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 10.6 |
48.5% / 35.3% |
18.2% / 17.6% |
5.0 / 2.8 |
67 / 45 |
51.0% / 52.9% |
53.7% / 48.9% |
33.1% / 55.4% |
5.8 / 7.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 37.8% |
27.5 / 29.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@CAR |
8 – 16 L |
-6.7 |
37.1% / 50.0% |
17.1% / 10.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.9 / 5.2 |
26.1% / 44.7% |
17.4% / 21.1% |
4.1 / 3.9 |
58 / 66 |
38.6% / 58.7% |
32.8% / 47.0% |
22.7% / 28.7% |
4.0 / 4.5 |
1.7% / 1.5% |
39.7% / 57.6% |
21.4 / 38.1 |
2 |
NYG |
20 – 13 W |
10.5 |
36.0% / 36.0% |
0.0% / 12.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 4.4 |
59.3% / 47.1% |
14.8% / 35.3% |
5.2 / 2.1 |
52 / 67 |
56.8% / 33.3% |
48.1% / 38.8% |
48.3% / 18.4% |
5.8 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
51.9% / 25.4% |
27.6 / 27.9 |
3 |
@SEA |
13 – 24 L |
-8.3 |
28.2% / 42.9% |
12.8% / 7.1% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
3.5 / 6.5 |
52.6% / 30.0% |
15.8% / 30.0% |
8.7 / 2.9 |
58 / 68 |
39.5% / 34.0% |
36.2% / 35.3% |
51.2% / 34.8% |
5.2 / 4.4 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
32.8% / 58.8% |
25.9 / 27.2 |
4 |
DET |
26 – 24 W |
1.7 |
50.0% / 54.5% |
10.0% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.7 / 8.7 |
55.6% / 40.0% |
22.2% / 25.0% |
5.1 / 4.8 |
66 / 53 |
56.9% / 47.6% |
53.0% / 49.1% |
51.6% / 64.1% |
6.3 / 7.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
54.5% / 37.7% |
21.8 / 23.8 |
5 |
@HOU |
16 – 19 L |
0.3 |
65.0% / 79.4% |
10.0% / 2.9% |
11.1% / 3.0% |
9.7 / 11.0 |
36.7% / 32.3% |
30.0% / 32.3% |
3.3 / 2.8 |
50 / 65 |
43.2% / 53.3% |
48.0% / 56.9% |
52.9% / 30.1% |
5.9 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
60.0% / 47.7% |
30.8 / 27.9 |
6 |
JAC |
40 – 7 W |
18.5 |
36.7% / 48.3% |
10.0% / 10.3% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
5.7 / 4.8 |
45.2% / 38.9% |
23.8% / 16.7% |
4.9 / 3.6 |
72 / 47 |
39.6% / 48.6% |
41.7% / 44.7% |
45.0% / 32.4% |
5.3 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 2.1% |
58.3% / 38.3% |
37.8 / 26.4 |
7 |
@WAS |
17 – 20 L |
-4.7 |
41.0% / 42.3% |
10.3% / 3.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 6.7 |
54.5% / 40.6% |
27.3% / 40.6% |
3.3 / 4.1 |
61 / 58 |
48.9% / 46.7% |
45.9% / 41.4% |
45.8% / 46.6% |
5.3 / 5.3 |
3.3% / 0.0% |
36.1% / 55.2% |
21.4 / 33.4 |