Tennessee Titans @

Dallas Cowboys

Mon, Nov 5
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 473
Odds: Dallas Cowboys -4.5, Total: 40.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – DALLAS (-4.5) vs Tennessee

The line on this game has come back down from a height of 6.5 points and now there is solid value on the Cowboys. Acquiring WR Amari Cooper from the Raiders should be able to help this Cowboys offense. The former first-round wide receiver opened his career with two consecutive 1000-yards seasons but hasn’t made the same kind of impact over the past couple of years. Still, Cooper is probably the most talented receiver on the Cowboys roster and a change of scenery may benefit him. Josh Gordon ran only 9 routes in his first game after being traded to the Patriots as it typically takes time for new receivers to get integrated into the offense following a mid-season trade, but Cooper had an extra week to prepare following the bye week so I’m expecting to see him out there for at least half the snaps. Dak Prescott should make use of his new weapon if he has enough time to throw. Dallas fired their offensive line coach and right guard Zack Martin, who’s made the Pro Bowl every season of his career, has been upgraded to probable in time to battle Titans DT Jurrell Casey, who ranks 11th among interior defensive linemen in pass rush efficiency. We value the addition of Cooper as worth 0.4 points for now but having Martin playing is actually more valuable.

The Cowboys defense may still be underrated with Sean Lee in the lineup as they’re 1.6 yards per play better in games he’s suited up this season. I expect WR Corey Davis, who’s seen 23 more targets than any other Tennessee player, to be shut down by Dallas CB Byron Jones. Jones’ transition to cornerback has been amazing, as he’s conceded just 0.56 yards per cover snap, which ranks 3rd best in the league at his position. Marcus Mariota should still have time to find other receivers downfield as Jack Conklin, who’s allowed just 4 sacks in his first three seasons, should limit DeMarcus Lawrence, who ranks 7th in pass rush efficiency among edge rushers.

We think the Dallas offense may improve with the addition of Amari Cooper and Zack Martin and their defense is much better with Sean Lee on the field. Our model favors the Cowboys by 7.6 points and I’ll lean consider the Cowboys a Strong Opinion at -4.5 points and I’d play Dallas in a 1-Star Best Bet at -4 points (at -110 odds).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Titans
  • Cowboys
TEN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 29.6 33.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.1% 50.7%
  • Sack Rate 12.0% 6.7%
  • Int Rate 2.9% 3.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.6% 20.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 28.5% 34.9%
  • NYPP 5.8 7.1



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.6 27.6
  • RB YPR 3.4 4.0
  • Stuff Rate 23.2% 19.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 42.2% 44.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 35.7% 37.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 4.2




Game

  • All Snaps 57.1 60.6
  • Early Down Succ 43.9% 48.5%
  • Succ Rate 44.7% 47.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 31.8% 38.2%
  • Yards Per Play 4.8 5.7
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 32.4 31.1
  • Run Ratio 48.7% 46.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.4 29.6
  • Game Control -2.7 2.7
 
  • Points 14.7 18.1
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