Game Analysis
Lean – Over (41.5) – CAROLINA (-3.5) vs Tennessee
Ryan Tannehill is 2-0 as a starter for the Titans and averaging 7.0 yards per pass play but our model projects no difference going forward between him and former starter Marcus Mariota. Tannehill could have another solid game by continuing to throw to his tight ends. The Titans target tight ends at the 7th-highest rate in the league and the Panthers are allowing 9.1 yards per target to opposing tight ends (28th). Delanie Walker may miss this game but backup tight end Jonnu Smith has been a capable replacement gaining 2.30 yards per route run (6th). AJ Brown is 1 of two rookies with at least 100 routes to average more than 2 yards per route run but he is likely to be limited a bit by Carolina CB James Bradberry, who is ranked in the top 25 of yards allowed per cover snap. Tannehill will face tremendous pressure up the middle from Gerald McCoy, who ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders, and should take advantage of rookie right guard Nate Davis, who has surrendered 4 sacks (4th-most) despite playing less than half the team’s pass blocking snaps. The Titans have the 8th-highest adjusted run play rate and Derrick Henry should dominate Carolina’s 30th-ranked rush defense. The running game and passes to the tight end should enable the Titans to move the ball at a decent rate.
Tennessee’s rush defense ranks 2nd led by Rashaan Evans, whose 10.6% run stop rate ranks 9th among linebackers, and Jurrell Casey, whose 9.8% run stop rate ranks 7th among interior defenders – although Casey missed practice on Wednesday and could be unavailable. Christian McCaffrey is unlikely to find any success on the ground if Casey is able to suit up but should still be valuable catching passes. Adoree’ Jackson is conceding only 0.75 yards per cover snap (7th) and the cornerback should be back in the lineup this week to neutralize DJ Moore.
Our model favors the Panthers by 2.7 points with a predicted total of 44.5 points and I’ll lean with the Over.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.0
39.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.0%
45.9%
-
Sack Rate
11.9%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.7%
17.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.9%
33.5%
-
NYPP
6.1
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.3
24.9
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
28.9%
24.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.0%
36.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.7%
38.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
60.3
63.9
-
Early Down Succ
45.7%
46.2%
-
Succ Rate
41.8%
42.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.2%
37.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.2
28.2
-
Run Ratio
43.9%
39.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.1
24.5
-
Game Control
-0.4
0.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.9
41.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.6%
44.1%
-
Sack Rate
8.4%
10.2%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
3.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.1%
19.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.8%
35.4%
-
NYPP
5.5
5.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.1
27.1
-
RB YPR
5.4
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
27.7%
20.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.1%
50.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
51.4%
53.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.1
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
64.0
68.7
-
Early Down Succ
47.2%
47.5%
-
Succ Rate
43.3%
45.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.5%
47.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.8%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.5
28.1
-
Run Ratio
39.7%
40.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.8
30.1
-
Game Control
-0.6
0.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CLE |
43 – 13 W |
7.1 |
35.7% /
39.5% |
14.3% /
11.6% |
0.0% /
7.9% |
7.7 /
5.7 |
50.0% /
45.0% |
21.4% /
5.0% |
4.4 /
5.1 |
56 /
63 |
50.0% /
49.0% |
42.9% /
41.3% |
67.8% /
47.4% |
6.1 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
31.7% |
34.4 /
22.6 |
| 2 |
IND |
17 – 19 L |
-1.3 |
37.5% /
45.2% |
12.5% /
9.7% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
50.0% /
47.1% |
20.8% /
29.4% |
5.1 /
4.9 |
56 /
65 |
52.3% /
45.8% |
42.9% /
46.2% |
38.4% /
27.8% |
4.3 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
42.9% /
52.3% |
31.5 /
26.5 |
| 3 |
@JAC |
7 – 20 L |
-13.0 |
30.6% /
43.3% |
18.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
6.8 |
53.8% /
15.0% |
19.2% /
45.0% |
3.5 /
4.4 |
75 /
50 |
36.8% /
37.8% |
38.7% /
32.0% |
57.1% /
56.8% |
4.5 /
5.8 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
34.7% /
40.0% |
28.9 /
25.7 |
| 4 |
@ATL |
24 – 10 W |
10.8 |
44.4% /
48.3% |
0.0% /
8.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.4 /
6.3 |
44.1% /
41.2% |
32.4% /
23.5% |
4.1 /
3.4 |
61 /
75 |
44.7% /
50.9% |
44.3% /
46.7% |
50.1% /
39.1% |
6.0 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
55.7% /
22.7% |
32.6 /
15.7 |
| 5 |
BUF |
7 – 14 L |
-2.4 |
40.7% /
47.2% |
18.5% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
5.6 /
5.7 |
40.7% /
55.6% |
25.9% /
14.8% |
3.8 /
4.0 |
54 /
63 |
45.0% /
58.7% |
40.7% /
50.8% |
52.0% /
34.5% |
4.7 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
42.9% |
23.3 /
30.0 |
| 6 |
@DEN |
0 – 16 L |
-7.4 |
29.3% /
41.4% |
17.1% /
3.4% |
8.8% /
3.6% |
4.0 /
5.8 |
33.3% /
30.0% |
33.3% /
16.7% |
1.9 /
3.4 |
62 /
59 |
37.8% /
44.2% |
30.6% /
35.6% |
12.3% /
26.3% |
3.3 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
50.8% |
30.6 /
23.4 |
| 7 |
LAC |
23 – 20 W |
0.9 |
62.5% /
56.4% |
6.3% /
2.6% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
9.6 /
8.4 |
48.3% /
23.8% |
20.7% /
42.9% |
3.3 /
1.9 |
61 /
60 |
57.4% /
43.8% |
55.7% /
45.0% |
36.5% /
35.1% |
6.6 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
47.5% /
35.0% |
24.1 /
24.9 |
| 8 |
TB |
27 – 23 W |
2.0 |
47.2% /
45.7% |
8.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
4.8 /
6.2 |
23.8% /
33.3% |
57.1% /
16.7% |
3.4 /
3.5 |
57 /
76 |
41.5% /
39.7% |
38.6% /
40.8% |
55.3% /
35.5% |
4.3 /
5.1 |
1.8% /
2.6% |
36.8% /
39.5% |
35.4 /
27.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
LA |
27 – 30 L |
-6.7 |
46.3% /
47.5% |
7.3% /
2.5% |
2.6% /
2.6% |
5.3 /
4.6 |
56.5% /
59.4% |
17.4% /
21.9% |
5.5 /
5.2 |
64 /
72 |
51.9% /
54.7% |
50.0% /
52.8% |
24.2% /
43.0% |
5.4 /
4.8 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
35.9% /
44.4% |
34.2 /
36.8 |
| 2 |
TB |
14 – 20 L |
-1.4 |
40.7% /
39.3% |
5.6% /
10.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
6.8 |
26.3% /
35.5% |
57.9% /
25.8% |
2.1 /
3.2 |
73 /
59 |
42.9% /
43.5% |
37.0% /
37.3% |
43.2% /
63.0% |
4.8 /
4.9 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
26.0% /
52.5% |
27.6 /
26.5 |
| 3 |
@ARI |
38 – 20 W |
4.1 |
60.7% /
35.3% |
7.1% /
15.7% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
8.6 /
2.5 |
38.7% /
68.2% |
16.1% /
18.2% |
5.6 /
5.5 |
59 /
73 |
53.2% /
41.8% |
49.2% /
45.2% |
46.7% /
35.1% |
7.0 /
3.4 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
52.5% /
30.1% |
36.2 /
22.5 |
| 4 |
@HOU |
16 – 10 W |
2.3 |
51.4% /
40.0% |
8.1% /
15.0% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
5.5 /
3.2 |
35.7% /
68.2% |
25.0% /
18.2% |
3.4 /
6.2 |
65 /
62 |
43.1% /
54.0% |
44.6% /
50.0% |
28.3% /
36.0% |
4.6 /
4.3 |
4.6% /
1.6% |
43.1% /
35.5% |
29.9 /
29.6 |
| 5 |
JAC |
34 – 27 W |
5.8 |
44.1% /
52.2% |
8.8% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
7.8 |
55.6% /
45.2% |
18.5% /
25.8% |
10.6 /
4.8 |
61 /
77 |
54.2% /
50.8% |
49.2% /
49.4% |
63.8% /
57.8% |
7.3 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
3.9% |
44.3% /
40.3% |
28.8 /
22.9 |
| 6 |
@TB |
37 – 26 W |
11.3 |
44.1% /
42.6% |
5.9% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
9.3% |
6.1 /
6.0 |
27.6% /
42.9% |
37.9% /
7.1% |
2.0 /
3.0 |
63 /
75 |
41.3% /
44.8% |
36.5% /
42.7% |
45.5% /
38.3% |
4.3 /
5.4 |
1.6% /
2.7% |
46.0% /
18.7% |
40.6 /
26.6 |
| 8 |
@SF |
13 – 51 L |
-19.5 |
31.8% /
52.0% |
15.9% /
12.0% |
8.1% /
4.5% |
2.3 /
6.2 |
47.4% /
36.8% |
21.1% /
23.7% |
6.8 /
6.1 |
63 /
63 |
43.8% /
43.1% |
36.5% /
42.9% |
52.6% /
59.8% |
3.7 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.2% /
60.3% |
25.4 /
45.6 |
Tennessee Titans
@ 
Carolina Panthers