Tennessee Titans @

Carolina Panthers

Sun, Nov 3
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 455
Odds: Carolina Panthers -3.5, Total: 41.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – Over (41.5) – CAROLINA (-3.5) vs Tennessee

Ryan Tannehill is 2-0 as a starter for the Titans and averaging 7.0 yards per pass play but our model projects no difference going forward between him and former starter Marcus Mariota. Tannehill could have another solid game by continuing to throw to his tight ends. The Titans target tight ends at the 7th-highest rate in the league and the Panthers are allowing 9.1 yards per target to opposing tight ends (28th). Delanie Walker may miss this game but backup tight end Jonnu Smith has been a capable replacement gaining 2.30 yards per route run (6th). AJ Brown is 1 of two rookies with at least 100 routes to average more than 2 yards per route run but he is likely to be limited a bit by Carolina CB James Bradberry, who is ranked in the top 25 of yards allowed per cover snap. Tannehill will face tremendous pressure up the middle from Gerald McCoy, who ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders, and should take advantage of rookie right guard Nate Davis, who has surrendered 4 sacks (4th-most) despite playing less than half the team’s pass blocking snaps. The Titans have the 8th-highest adjusted run play rate and Derrick Henry should dominate Carolina’s 30th-ranked rush defense. The running game and passes to the tight end should enable the Titans to move the ball at a decent rate.

Tennessee’s rush defense ranks 2nd led by Rashaan Evans, whose 10.6% run stop rate ranks 9th among linebackers, and Jurrell Casey, whose 9.8% run stop rate ranks 7th among interior defenders – although Casey missed practice on Wednesday and could be unavailable. Christian McCaffrey is unlikely to find any success on the ground if Casey is able to suit up but should still be valuable catching passes. Adoree’ Jackson is conceding only 0.75 yards per cover snap (7th) and the cornerback should be back in the lineup this week to neutralize DJ Moore.

Our model favors the Panthers by 2.7 points with a predicted total of 44.5 points and I’ll lean with the Over.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Titans
  • Panthers


  • Pass Plays 34.0 39.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 41.0% 45.9%
  • Sack Rate 11.9% 6.7%
  • Int Rate 1.5% 2.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.7% 17.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 46.9% 33.5%
  • NYPP 6.1 6.1


  • Rush Plays 26.3 24.9
  • RB YPR 3.5 3.6
  • Stuff Rate 28.9% 24.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 43.0% 36.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 41.7% 38.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.7 3.8


  • All Snaps 60.3 63.9
  • Early Down Succ 45.7% 46.2%
  • Succ Rate 41.8% 42.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 46.2% 37.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.0 5.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.2 28.2
  • Run Ratio 43.9% 39.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.1 24.5
  • Game Control -0.4 0.4
  • Points 18.5 16.9
Share This