Game Analysis

Lean – Tennessee (+7.5/+7) over ARIZONA

Lean – Over (42)

• I’m proceeding with caution here because there’s a chance Tennessee’s offense could be the worst of the last decade, as they’re averaging just 17.7 yards per possession, although I think they are likely not that bad.
• Backups have taken 24% of the snaps for the Titans offensive line this season and they are surrendering a combined 8.0% pressure rate compared to the starters allowing a combined 3.8% pressure rate.
• Tennessee backup tackle John Ojukwu has surrendered a league-high 4 sacks in only 61 pass blocking snaps and his replacement Oli Udoh gave up 5 pressures last week.
• As of September 26, starting right tackle JC Latham was described as “feeling pretty good”, Tennessee beat reporters are downplaying the severity of his injury and saying he’s trending upward, and the Titans avoided placing him on injured reserve (IR) initially because they believed he could avoid the mandatory four-week minimum absence (missed last 3 games). However, Latham didn’t practice on Wednesday and I think he’s around 35% to suit up for this game.
• Tennessee will definitely have RG Kevin Zeitler, who missed 84 snaps this year but ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency. Zeitler will contain Arizona interior defender Calais Campbell, who has 3.0 sacks (12th).
• Our model expects the Titans offense to go from historically bad to merely the worst offense in the NFL this season with a fully healthier offensive line.
• Kyler Murray is averaging 1.2 fewer yppp this season despite having the exact same supporting cast and play caller. He should improve going forward starting against a Tennessee defense surrendering 0.16 EPA/play (30th).
• Our model favors the Cardinals by 8.5 points, with a predicted total of 45.0 points, but I like Tennessee here based on a 52-14-1 ATS situation that plays on bad teams coming off a shutout loss.