Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – SEATTLE (-3.5 -105) over Tampa Bay

• The betting market had the Seahawks rated 1 point better than average before last week and they clearly deserve an upgrade after outgaining the Cardinals by 2.0 yppl. Conservatively, let’s call Seattle a +1.5. Although, the Seahawks are a +2.5 by our model after accounting for their relative health versus the rest of the NFL.
• The Buccaneers were rated in market as a +0.5 heading into their last game without Pro Bowl WR Mike Evans, both starters on the right side of the offensive line, and iDL Calijah Kancey. None of those four starters will be back on Sunday and Tampa Bay is even more banged up, likely missing RB Bucky Irving, starting CB Jamel Dean as well as his backup Benjamin Morrison.
• Dean prevents separation on a league-high 76% of his cover snaps and the Buccaneers surrendered 28.8 points per game in the 5 weeks he missed last year. The cluster loss at cornerback with Morrison out too will force Kindle Vildor onto the field and is worth at least a point downgrade.
• Irving leads running backs with 0.58 EPA/target and his contributions to the passing game are worth a half point according to our numbers.
• These losses take Tampa Bay’s power rating from a +0.5 last week to a -1 this week. Seattle’s home field is worth 2 points. This game’s true price should be at least Seahawks -4.5 (we make it 5.0) which makes this Strong Opinion value at -105 vig.
• Baker Mayfield was pressured on 43% of his dropbacks last week even with starting LT Tristan Wirfs back in the fold because they are missing the entire right side of the starting offensive line. The Seahawks had 6 sacks of Kyler Murray last game and they should disrupt Mayfield on Sunday.
• Mayfield has a 0.7% interception rate (6th) but a 5.6% turnover-worthy play rate (30th) and I think he throws a couple picks in Seattle.
• Tampa Bay’s wide receivers have a 70% target share (3rd-highest) but they will struggle as the Seahawks are conceding 0.06 EPA/target to opposing WRs (8th).
• The Buccaneers are allowing a league-low -0.32 EPA/rush but Sam Darnold has a favorable matchup throwing the ball as Seattle’s offense is averaging 18% more yards per attempt against the blitz than a standard pass rush (4th). Tampa Bay’s defense has a 46% blitz rate (4th-highest).
• Our model favors the Seahawks by 5.0 points, with a predicted total of 43.1 points, and the matchups are favorable.

Seattle is a Strong Opinion at -3.5 -110 odds or better.