Game Analysis

SAN FRANCISCO (-11.5) vs Tampa Bay

· San Francisco WR Deebo Samuel only got 9 snaps in week 6 and Trent Williams trudged through an ankle sprain. Then the pair missed the next two games. The 49ers offense is averaging 33.5 points with Williams and Samuel both not limited and they scored 34 points in Jacksonville last week.

· Brock Purdy completed a league-high 6 passes with at least 20 air yards against the Jaguars but he will have to get the ball out faster on Sunday.

· Tampa Bay’s defense has a 46.6% blitz rate (3rd-highest) and Purdy has struggled versus the blitz with yards per attempt only 82% of his yards per attempt against a standard pass rush (30th).

· Buccaneers’ interior defender Vita Vea ranks 16th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc across from RG Spencer Burford, who has surrendered 20 pressures (10th-most).

· George Kittle leads the NFL averaging 0.82 EPA/target but he may fall a bit short of his normal standard against a Tampa Bay defense that is conceding a 49% success rate to tight ends (10th).

· The Buccaneers are allowing -0.19 EPA/target to running backs (6th) and they will contain RB Christian McCaffrey, who has a 64% success rate when targeted (2nd).

· Baker Mayfield is the opposite of Purdy in that his yards per attempt against a standard pass rush are only 82% of his yards per attempt versus the blitz. The 49ers have a 79.9% standard pass rush rate (3rd-highest) as winning up front with four pass rushers was the reason they traded for edge defender Chase Young, whose 16% pressure rate led San Francisco’s defense in his first game for the 49ers.

· Tampa Bay LT Tristan Wirfs ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency, and he will shut down Young.

· San Francisco’s defense is allowing only a 36% pass success rate to running backs (6th) and they will limit Rachaad White, who is leading all running backs averaging 0.41 EPA/target.

· Buccaneers’ WR Chris Godwin is averaging 0.31 EPA/target (21st) but he will be contained by CB Charvarius Ward, who is conceding 0.94 yards per cover snap (18th).

· The 49ers are 5th in explosive pass rate allowed and they won’t get beat downfield by WR Mike Evans, who has 8 deep receptions (5th).

· Our model makes San Francisco a 14.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.6 points, but the matchups favor Tampa Bay and we get the Niners by 12.6 points when factoring that in.