Game Analysis
Lean – NY GIANTS (-1.5) over Tampa Bay
Lean – Over (52)
The Buccaneers scored 3 points despite generating 501 yards of offense last week, which is the lowest point total for any team above 500 yards of offense in NFL history. In fact, Tampa Bay was the first team to score in single digits with above 500 yards of offense since 1986. The Buccaneers pulled off the rare feat thanks to 4 turnovers, 2 missed field goals and scoring 0 touchdowns on their 5 trips to the Redzone. Tampa Bay’s offense is still gaining 6.7 yards per play (4th) and they certainly won’t experience bad luck to that extent moving forward.
The Buccaneers’ defense will likely be without one of the surest tacklers in the league in Lavonte David, whose 17.5 attempted tackles per miss ranks 11th among linebackers, and another starting linebacker Kwon Alexander is also out for the Bucs. Tampa Bay’s defense sans David and Alexander sets up Saquon Barkley to thrive both on the ground and catching passes out of the backfield. The Buccaneers concede 177 slot receiving yards per game, most in the NFL, meaning we’ll likely get a heavy dose of Sterling Shepard, who is gaining 1.74 yards per route run in the slot (11th). Odell Beckham also will likely find himself open facing the mediocre Brent Grimes on the outside.
Our model favors the Giants by 3 with a predicted total of 54.8 so I’ll lean Giants and over.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
44.3
37.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.3%
52.6%
-
Sack Rate
6.1%
6.4%
-
Int Rate
4.8%
0.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
25.3%
20.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.2%
41.9%
-
NYPP
8.6
7.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.6
25.3
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
24.0%
26.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.5%
48.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.9%
56.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
68.9
62.8
-
Early Down Succ
49.2%
55.7%
-
Succ Rate
48.5%
50.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.1%
47.0%
-
Yards Per Play
6.6
6.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.2
28.5
-
Run Ratio
35.8%
40.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.5
28.9
-
Game Control
-5.3
5.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.5
33.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.6%
50.7%
-
Sack Rate
8.9%
3.5%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.0%
17.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.7%
43.9%
-
NYPP
7.3
7.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
18.9
28.6
-
RB YPR
4.1
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
31.7%
22.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.1%
45.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
53.9%
45.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
60.4
62.0
-
Early Down Succ
42.8%
50.3%
-
Succ Rate
43.0%
48.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.0%
45.7%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
30.2
-
Run Ratio
31.8%
46.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.4
28.5
-
Game Control
-5.1
5.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NO |
48 – 40 W |
7.4 |
64.3% / 73.9% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
14.9 / 9.4 |
43.2% / 69.2% |
18.9% / 23.1% |
3.1 / 3.3 |
65 / 59 |
56.5% / 77.6% |
52.3% / 72.9% |
62.7% / 36.4% |
8.2 / 8.1 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
56.9% / 22.0% |
26.4 / 25.9 |
2 |
PHI |
27 – 21 W |
11.1 |
60.0% / 42.0% |
5.7% / 6.0% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
11.2 / 6.4 |
25.0% / 54.2% |
41.7% / 20.8% |
1.8 / 3.8 |
59 / 74 |
48.9% / 48.1% |
45.8% / 45.9% |
45.3% / 36.2% |
7.4 / 5.6 |
1.7% / 2.7% |
40.7% / 32.4% |
27.2 / 25.5 |
3 |
PIT |
27 – 30 L |
-9.7 |
45.3% / 51.2% |
5.7% / 7.3% |
6.0% / 2.6% |
7.4 / 8.2 |
47.1% / 36.0% |
17.6% / 28.0% |
3.8 / 3.2 |
70 / 66 |
48.3% / 54.0% |
45.7% / 45.5% |
43.6% / 45.4% |
6.5 / 6.3 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
24.3% / 37.9% |
25.2 / 28.0 |
4 |
@CHI |
10 – 48 L |
-27.7 |
45.2% / 66.7% |
9.5% / 3.7% |
7.9% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 12.7 |
38.9% / 51.5% |
22.2% / 27.3% |
3.3 / 4.3 |
60 / 60 |
45.7% / 64.6% |
43.3% / 58.3% |
32.8% / 72.6% |
5.2 / 8.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.0% / 55.0% |
23.8 / 27.5 |
6 |
@ATL |
29 – 34 L |
-6.3 |
61.9% / 57.1% |
4.8% / 2.4% |
5.0% / 0.0% |
9.3 / 8.2 |
55.0% / 40.9% |
25.0% / 36.4% |
6.2 / 3.2 |
62 / 64 |
59.3% / 49.0% |
59.7% / 51.6% |
32.8% / 40.9% |
8.3 / 6.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.3% / 34.4% |
28.6 / 21.9 |
7 |
CLE |
26 – 23 W |
6.5 |
51.8% / 38.5% |
7.1% / 12.8% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 4.8 |
42.4% / 39.1% |
30.3% / 30.4% |
3.5 / 5.2 |
89 / 62 |
49.3% / 45.7% |
48.3% / 38.7% |
35.4% / 41.0% |
5.1 / 4.9 |
2.2% / 1.6% |
37.1% / 37.1% |
21.3 / 37.6 |
8 |
@CIN |
34 – 37 L |
-10.5 |
41.1% / 48.6% |
10.7% / 5.7% |
8.0% / 0.0% |
8.0 / 7.5 |
51.9% / 42.9% |
11.1% / 28.6% |
4.7 / 5.0 |
83 / 63 |
39.7% / 50.0% |
44.6% / 46.0% |
49.0% / 54.6% |
6.9 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.5% / 44.4% |
24.5 / 29.5 |
9 |
@CAR |
28 – 42 L |
-14.2 |
47.7% / 55.6% |
6.8% / 7.4% |
4.9% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 8.4 |
23.8% / 48.6% |
23.8% / 11.4% |
3.9 / 5.2 |
65 / 62 |
39.2% / 62.2% |
40.0% / 51.6% |
49.5% / 56.0% |
4.6 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.3% / 56.5% |
24.6 / 34.8 |
10 |
WAS |
3 – 16 L |
-4.7 |
62.8% / 40.0% |
4.7% / 10.0% |
4.9% / 0.0% |
9.3 / 5.7 |
45.8% / 56.0% |
25.0% / 32.0% |
4.3 / 4.6 |
67 / 55 |
56.1% / 50.0% |
56.7% / 47.3% |
36.5% / 39.9% |
7.5 / 5.2 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
35.8% / 45.5% |
19.0 / 29.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
JAC |
15 – 20 L |
-3.9 |
28.2% / 44.1% |
5.1% / 2.9% |
2.7% / 3.0% |
5.4 / 4.9 |
34.8% / 36.7% |
30.4% / 16.7% |
5.0 / 4.6 |
62 / 64 |
31.9% / 46.8% |
30.6% / 40.6% |
38.0% / 38.8% |
5.2 / 4.8 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
37.1% / 46.9% |
25.3 / 31.5 |
2 |
@DAL |
13 – 20 L |
-10.5 |
36.0% / 36.0% |
12.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.4 / 6.4 |
47.1% / 59.3% |
35.3% / 14.8% |
2.1 / 5.2 |
67 / 52 |
33.3% / 56.8% |
38.8% / 48.1% |
18.4% / 48.3% |
3.8 / 5.8 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
25.4% / 51.9% |
27.9 / 27.6 |
3 |
@HOU |
27 – 22 W |
7.6 |
60.6% / 53.7% |
12.1% / 7.3% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
8.0 / 9.0 |
32.1% / 42.1% |
25.0% / 36.8% |
4.1 / 3.1 |
61 / 60 |
47.8% / 50.0% |
47.5% / 50.0% |
41.3% / 53.4% |
6.2 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
45.9% / 31.7% |
22.2 / 28.9 |
4 |
NO |
18 – 33 L |
-3.5 |
56.8% / 42.9% |
6.8% / 2.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 6.3 |
50.0% / 48.6% |
18.8% / 8.6% |
4.1 / 4.9 |
60 / 70 |
58.3% / 51.0% |
55.0% / 45.7% |
29.3% / 55.4% |
5.0 / 5.6 |
3.3% / 0.0% |
26.7% / 50.0% |
22.5 / 33.9 |
5 |
@CAR |
31 – 33 L |
-5.4 |
75.0% / 76.2% |
4.2% / 4.8% |
8.7% / 10.0% |
15.9 / 11.0 |
25.0% / 40.6% |
43.8% / 28.1% |
3.1 / 3.7 |
40 / 53 |
46.7% / 47.1% |
55.0% / 54.7% |
59.3% / 52.7% |
10.8 / 6.6 |
2.5% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 60.4% |
30.5 / 28.5 |
6 |
PHI |
13 – 34 L |
-14.8 |
34.0% / 48.6% |
8.5% / 2.7% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 7.3 |
52.9% / 51.6% |
17.6% / 16.1% |
8.6 / 3.5 |
64 / 68 |
42.9% / 48.1% |
39.1% / 50.0% |
58.4% / 32.7% |
6.3 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
26.6% / 45.6% |
25.5 / 31.4 |
7 |
@ATL |
20 – 23 L |
-4.5 |
50.0% / 57.1% |
9.5% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.9 / 8.5 |
35.0% / 33.3% |
40.0% / 33.3% |
3.1 / 3.2 |
62 / 63 |
46.9% / 50.0% |
45.2% / 49.2% |
60.3% / 42.2% |
7.0 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
32.3% / 33.3% |
22.4 / 19.7 |
8 |
WAS |
13 – 20 L |
-6.0 |
32.1% / 46.9% |
13.2% / 0.0% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 5.6 |
35.7% / 50.0% |
42.9% / 23.5% |
2.6 / 5.4 |
67 / 66 |
34.7% / 53.1% |
32.8% / 48.5% |
46.9% / 42.1% |
4.5 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
20.9% / 51.5% |
27.2 / 26.4 |