Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

New York Giants

Sun, Nov 18
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 465
Odds: New York Giants -1.5, Total: 52

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY GIANTS (-1.5) over Tampa Bay

Lean – Over (52)

The Buccaneers scored 3 points despite generating 501 yards of offense last week, which is the lowest point total for any team above 500 yards of offense in NFL history. In fact, Tampa Bay was the first team to score in single digits with above 500 yards of offense since 1986. The Buccaneers pulled off the rare feat thanks to 4 turnovers, 2 missed field goals and scoring 0 touchdowns on their 5 trips to the Redzone. Tampa Bay’s offense is still gaining 6.7 yards per play (4th) and they certainly won’t experience bad luck to that extent moving forward.

The Buccaneers’ defense will likely be without one of the surest tacklers in the league in Lavonte David, whose 17.5 attempted tackles per miss ranks 11th among linebackers, and another starting linebacker Kwon Alexander is also out for the Bucs. Tampa Bay’s defense sans David and Alexander sets up Saquon Barkley to thrive both on the ground and catching passes out of the backfield. The Buccaneers concede 177 slot receiving yards per game, most in the NFL, meaning we’ll likely get a heavy dose of Sterling Shepard, who is gaining 1.74 yards per route run in the slot (11th). Odell Beckham also will likely find himself open facing the mediocre Brent Grimes on the outside.

Our model favors the Giants by 3 with a predicted total of 54.8 so I’ll lean Giants and over.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Buccaneers
  • Giants
TB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 44.3 37.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 53.3% 52.6%
  • Sack Rate 6.1% 6.4%
  • Int Rate 4.8% 0.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 25.3% 20.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.2% 41.9%
  • NYPP 8.6 7.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.6 25.3
  • RB YPR 3.4 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 24.0% 26.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.5% 48.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 38.9% 56.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 4.2




Game

  • All Snaps 68.9 62.8
  • Early Down Succ 49.2% 55.7%
  • Succ Rate 48.5% 50.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.1% 47.0%
  • Yards Per Play 6.6 6.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.2 28.5
  • Run Ratio 35.8% 40.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 24.5 28.9
  • Game Control -5.3 5.3
 
  • Points 25.8 32.3
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