Game Analysis
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Lean – NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) over Tampa Bay
- Kirk Cousins completed 23 of his 28 passes for 338 yards targeting inside the hash marks last week as Tampa Bay’s defense was without both starting safeties once Jordan Whitehead went down with a groin injury. It looks like Whitehead will be alright and All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield should be back on the field as well after missing four games.
- The Buccaneers will also get interior defender Calijah Kancey back in the fold on Sunday. Kancey has yet to take a snap this year, but his 45 pressures last season ranked 3rd on Tampa Bay’s defense.
- New Orleans starting center Erik McCoy is out and guard Landon Young surrendered 5 pressures last week (2nd-most). Buccaneers’ interior defender Vita Vea 19th in pass rushing efficiency and will wreak havoc on the Saints interior offensive line alongside Kancey.
- It looks like Spencer Rattler will get the nod under center for New Orleans this week and we’ll see if he can access the deep parts of the field to WR Rashid Shaheed, who has a league-high 11 targets with 20+ air yards.
- Saints’ CB Marshon Lattimore is allowing just 0.39 yards per cover snap (4th) and he will shut down WR Mike Evans, who has a 64% success rate (9th). Evans is averaging only 46.6 yards in games when Lattimore is on the field since 2017.
- I don’t think Tampa Bay’s offense will want to count on the wide receivers as much in this matchup so we could see them go into heavier personnel especially considering the Saints might be without starting linebacker Pete Werner again. The Buccaneers are averaging 11.2 yppl in 21 personnel this year and the New Orleans defense is allowing 31% more yards per attempt versus two wide receiver formations than other personnel packages.
- Tampa Bay backup right tackle Justin Skule surrendered 3 sacks (8th-most) but starter Luke Goedeke should finally be back from his concussion this week and LT Tristan Wirfs leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency. The pair will contain Saints edge rushers Chase Young and Carl Granderson, who have combined for 48 pressures which is the most of any tandem.
- Our model favors the Buccaneers by 2.4 with a predicted total of 40.3.