Game Analysis
Lean – Tampa Bay (+9.5) over NEW ORLEANS
Jameis Winston is suspended for the first three games but it’s worth noting he was actually outplayed by backup Ryan Fitzpatrick when Winston missed time last year. Our forward-facing quarterback model makes Winston about 2.5 points per game better than Fitzpatrick, so Tampa Bay’s offense should be hampered by the suspension if Fitzpatrick goes back to his careless brand of football after throwing just 3 picks on 163 passes last season (1.8% vs 3.4% interceptions in his career). Most of the hype will be around the wide receiver duo of Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson but the Buccaneers should be dangerous between the numbers as well with both O.J. Howard finishing 4th and Cameron Brate 14th in yards per route run by tight ends. Peyton Barber had the 5th-best success rate among running backs with at least 100 attempts last season and I expect Tampa Bay’s ground game to be improved as Barber gets more touches while the horrendous numbers of over-the-hill Doug Martin (2.9 ypr on 138 carries) are replaced by second-round draft pick Ronald Jones.
One of Tampa Bay’s largest deficiencies in 2017 was pass rush, generating the fewest sacks in the NFL, but they addressed this by drafting Vita Vea in the first round as well as signing Vinny Curry and Jason Pierre-Paul, who finished with a combined 94 pressures last season. Along with Gerald McCoy and William Gholston, the Buccaneers now have the second-most expensive defensive line in the league and they will line up across from a Saints offensive line returning almost all their key contributors. New Orleans was one of four offensive lines in the league to start a different combination in every game last year, but they were able to maintain remarkable production in both pass protection and run blocking. The Saints gained 4.5 yards per rush (3rd) and rookie Alvin Kamara led all running backs with a 53% success rate before his injury in early December. Kamara’s success rate dropped to 35% after his injury including the playoffs but New Orleans will be hoping he’s back to 100% for the start of the season with Mark Ingram suspended for 4 games. Our numbers show Kamara added more points in the receiving game than any running back in the league, but he’s never been given more than 12 carries in a game and it remains to be seen if he can perform as a workhorse back.
The Saints’ offensive line kept a clean pocket for Drew Brees, who only saw pressure on only 22% of his dropbacks, the lowest mark for any quarterback in the last three seasons. Protection for the 39-year-old quarterback is crucial as the Saints shift to a more dink-and-dunk approach. New Orleans is throwing the ball less often with the emergence of their rushing attack, ranking 20th in pass rate last season after finishing inside the top 10 every other year this decade, and Brees threw for just 6.4 air yards per attempt, the shortest average pass length in the NFL last season. We still have Brees rated as one of the league’s most valuable quarterbacks and project the Saints’ offense to be the third-best unit in the NFL this season.
The Saints traded up in the first round to draft defensive end Marcus Davenport and it better work out as they had a much more glaring need at linebacker, assuming Alex Okafor comes back healthy from his Achilles injury. Alex Anzalone is expected to start after ranking 113th amongst linebackers in yards allowed per cover snap last year, which is a reason the Saints’ defense is likely to get worse.
My ratings don’t show value on either side after making the adjustment for Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Tampa Bay applies to a 70-39-6 ATS week 1 contrary indicator and I’ll lean with the Buccaneers plus the points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.1
35.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.7%
50.5%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
4.0%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.6%
20.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.3%
39.1%
-
NYPP
6.8
7.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.8
28.5
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
23.0%
25.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.7%
41.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
31.2%
42.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
64.9
64.1
-
Early Down Succ
48.1%
48.7%
-
Succ Rate
46.8%
47.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
30.7%
41.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
28.6
-
Run Ratio
37.9%
44.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.5
28.1
-
Game Control
-3.1
3.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.2
37.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.3%
42.7%
-
Sack Rate
4.0%
7.0%
-
Int Rate
1.7%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.0%
19.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
47.9%
41.3%
-
NYPP
7.7
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.6
26.1
-
RB YPR
4.3
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
18.9%
24.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.9%
47.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
47.3%
45.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
63.8
64.1
-
Early Down Succ
53.7%
46.9%
-
Succ Rate
49.2%
44.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.0%
44.4%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
26.3
-
Run Ratio
44.1%
40.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
25.9
-
Game Control
3.2
-3.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
2 |
CHI |
29 – 7 W |
18.1 |
48.5% / 56.5% |
6.1% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 4.4% |
5.9 / 6.3 |
36.1% / 25.0% |
11.1% / 43.8% |
3.3 / 1.3 |
69 / 62 |
41.2% / 50.0% |
42.0% / 48.4% |
14.4% / 6.5% |
4.5 / 5.0 |
1.4% / 3.2% |
52.2% / 25.8% |
31.1 / 27.0 |
3 |
@MIN |
17 – 34 L |
-13.1 |
57.1% / 63.6% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 11.2 |
44.4% / 37.5% |
11.1% / 12.5% |
2.9 / 3.2 |
51 / 73 |
60.0% / 52.7% |
54.9% / 49.3% |
16.7% / 45.3% |
6.7 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
17.6% / 54.8% |
24.8 / 27.3 |
4 |
NYG |
25 – 23 W |
5.2 |
48.7% / 49.0% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 5.9 |
42.3% / 35.7% |
19.2% / 28.6% |
4.3 / 3.3 |
65 / 77 |
56.3% / 44.1% |
46.2% / 44.2% |
57.3% / 27.4% |
6.7 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 36.4% |
29.9 / 27.7 |
5 |
NE |
14 – 19 L |
-4.4 |
48.9% / 51.2% |
4.3% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
6.8 / 6.7 |
55.0% / 47.8% |
20.0% / 17.4% |
4.5 / 4.9 |
67 / 66 |
55.6% / 53.7% |
50.7% / 50.0% |
37.2% / 24.6% |
6.1 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
29.9% / 34.8% |
27.4 / 27.7 |
6 |
@ARI |
33 – 38 L |
-18.1 |
53.5% / 62.5% |
2.3% / 8.3% |
4.8% / 4.5% |
8.0 / 11.3 |
23.8% / 38.5% |
38.1% / 20.5% |
3.2 / 4.2 |
64 / 63 |
40.4% / 56.5% |
43.8% / 47.6% |
51.9% / 53.0% |
6.5 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
32.8% / 61.9% |
28.3 / 33.4 |
7 |
@BUF |
27 – 30 L |
-2.0 |
64.4% / 44.1% |
2.2% / 2.9% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
8.4 / 7.7 |
32.0% / 42.4% |
20.0% / 27.3% |
2.8 / 5.2 |
70 / 67 |
52.5% / 37.3% |
52.9% / 43.3% |
26.4% / 65.0% |
6.4 / 6.5 |
2.9% / 1.5% |
35.7% / 49.3% |
27.0 / 33.7 |
8 |
CAR |
3 – 17 L |
-7.2 |
36.6% / 37.5% |
7.3% / 0.0% |
5.3% / 3.1% |
4.7 / 4.8 |
45.5% / 45.5% |
31.8% / 24.2% |
3.9 / 3.1 |
63 / 65 |
46.0% / 43.2% |
39.7% / 41.5% |
19.4% / 30.5% |
4.4 / 3.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
34.9% / 50.8% |
23.2 / 30.6 |
9 |
@NO |
10 – 30 L |
-15.2 |
37.5% / 67.9% |
12.5% / 3.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.5 / 9.1 |
44.0% / 41.7% |
24.0% / 8.3% |
3.5 / 4.3 |
57 / 64 |
43.2% / 57.8% |
40.4% / 53.1% |
13.0% / 49.3% |
3.5 / 6.4 |
1.8% / 3.1% |
43.9% / 56.3% |
31.5 / 26.6 |
10 |
NYJ |
15 – 10 W |
3.4 |
40.0% / 28.9% |
2.9% / 13.3% |
2.9% / 2.6% |
5.2 / 4.9 |
28.1% / 21.1% |
28.1% / 42.1% |
2.8 / 2.9 |
67 / 64 |
32.7% / 27.7% |
34.3% / 26.6% |
23.2% / 46.2% |
4.1 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
47.8% / 29.7% |
36.0 / 19.0 |
11 |
@MIA |
30 – 20 W |
5.1 |
39.5% / 46.3% |
2.6% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 7.5% |
7.1 / 8.9 |
20.8% / 15.8% |
41.7% / 57.9% |
2.2 / 4.4 |
62 / 60 |
34.7% / 34.8% |
32.3% / 36.7% |
42.4% / 61.2% |
5.2 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
38.7% / 31.7% |
35.9 / 25.2 |
12 |
@ATL |
20 – 34 L |
-8.2 |
51.1% / 60.0% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.2 / 10.5 |
56.5% / 60.7% |
17.4% / 14.3% |
4.1 / 5.3 |
68 / 63 |
56.4% / 55.1% |
52.9% / 60.3% |
18.8% / 61.4% |
5.5 / 8.2 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
33.8% / 44.4% |
25.0 / 26.3 |
13 |
@GB |
20 – 26 L |
-1.6 |
43.6% / 33.3% |
17.9% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 4.5% |
5.9 / 3.2 |
48.6% / 60.0% |
17.1% / 13.3% |
4.7 / 6.7 |
74 / 54 |
43.1% / 52.5% |
45.9% / 48.1% |
34.7% / 40.1% |
5.3 / 5.1 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
47.3% / 55.6% |
25.3 / 28.5 |
14 |
DET |
21 – 24 L |
-4.8 |
58.5% / 61.4% |
7.3% / 0.0% |
5.3% / 4.5% |
6.5 / 8.7 |
62.1% / 33.3% |
13.8% / 38.9% |
4.6 / 2.9 |
70 / 62 |
63.3% / 54.9% |
60.0% / 53.2% |
25.4% / 34.8% |
5.7 / 7.0 |
4.3% / 1.6% |
41.4% / 29.0% |
22.2 / 30.4 |
15 |
ATL |
21 – 24 L |
-5.0 |
60.0% / 43.8% |
5.7% / 3.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 6.5 |
66.7% / 57.1% |
22.2% / 17.1% |
4.7 / 5.7 |
53 / 67 |
64.4% / 48.1% |
62.3% / 50.7% |
29.0% / 48.8% |
7.0 / 6.1 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
34.0% / 52.2% |
26.5 / 24.0 |
16 |
@CAR |
19 – 22 L |
0.3 |
42.4% / 42.9% |
18.2% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
9.9 / 5.0 |
25.0% / 54.5% |
37.5% / 12.1% |
2.8 / 3.5 |
57 / 61 |
30.4% / 56.8% |
35.1% / 49.2% |
60.5% / 31.6% |
6.9 / 4.2 |
5.3% / 0.0% |
42.1% / 54.1% |
26.8 / 36.7 |
17 |
NO |
31 – 24 W |
-1.8 |
49.1% / 59.4% |
3.8% / 6.3% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
6.5 / 7.2 |
67.9% / 42.3% |
14.3% / 26.9% |
3.9 / 3.5 |
81 / 58 |
50.0% / 53.3% |
55.6% / 51.7% |
21.8% / 41.8% |
5.6 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
34.6% / 44.8% |
19.7 / 25.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@MIN |
19 – 29 L |
-6.6 |
60.5% / 63.6% |
2.6% / 3.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 10.3 |
28.6% / 27.3% |
14.3% / 33.3% |
2.9 / 4.0 |
59 / 66 |
52.1% / 44.7% |
49.2% / 45.5% |
29.9% / 68.0% |
5.8 / 7.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.6% / 50.0% |
22.4 / 24.9 |
2 |
NE |
20 – 36 L |
-14.2 |
51.1% / 61.0% |
2.2% / 4.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.7 / 10.6 |
47.1% / 51.6% |
11.8% / 22.6% |
4.8 / 3.8 |
62 / 72 |
54.2% / 58.3% |
50.0% / 56.9% |
48.3% / 53.2% |
6.9 / 7.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
27.4% / 43.1% |
27.9 / 27.5 |
3 |
@CAR |
34 – 13 W |
8.6 |
46.7% / 43.2% |
3.3% / 10.8% |
0.0% / 9.1% |
7.1 / 4.2 |
55.6% / 77.3% |
25.9% / 4.5% |
5.5 / 6.0 |
57 / 59 |
51.1% / 57.8% |
50.9% / 55.9% |
55.5% / 40.3% |
6.4 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
47.4% / 37.3% |
37.8 / 25.2 |
4 |
@MIA |
20 – 0 W |
5.5 |
48.8% / 37.5% |
2.4% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 3.6% |
6.4 / 4.0 |
46.4% / 60.0% |
14.3% / 40.0% |
3.1 / 3.9 |
69 / 47 |
46.3% / 52.6% |
47.8% / 44.7% |
46.1% / 31.7% |
5.0 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.6% / 31.9% |
28.8 / 27.0 |
6 |
DET |
52 – 38 W |
15.8 |
45.2% / 35.1% |
0.0% / 8.8% |
6.5% / 5.8% |
6.0 / 4.9 |
45.9% / 15.8% |
13.5% / 36.8% |
5.2 / 3.5 |
68 / 76 |
50.9% / 24.6% |
45.6% / 30.3% |
51.7% / 53.3% |
5.6 / 4.6 |
1.5% / 2.6% |
54.4% / 25.0% |
29.4 / 27.6 |
7 |
@GB |
26 – 17 W |
-2.5 |
59.0% / 23.1% |
2.6% / 3.8% |
5.3% / 4.0% |
8.3 / 3.0 |
53.8% / 70.8% |
12.8% / 16.7% |
4.2 / 7.5 |
78 / 50 |
61.4% / 48.7% |
56.4% / 46.0% |
49.2% / 45.4% |
6.3 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 48.0% |
30.1 / 18.2 |
8 |
CHI |
20 – 12 W |
7.8 |
50.0% / 32.4% |
6.7% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
9.5 / 4.4 |
36.4% / 45.2% |
18.2% / 32.3% |
3.2 / 5.1 |
63 / 65 |
52.1% / 36.2% |
42.9% / 38.5% |
57.9% / 61.2% |
6.2 / 4.7 |
3.2% / 0.0% |
52.4% / 47.7% |
30.8 / 24.8 |
9 |
TB |
30 – 10 W |
15.2 |
67.9% / 37.5% |
3.6% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.1 / 3.5 |
41.7% / 44.0% |
8.3% / 24.0% |
4.3 / 3.5 |
64 / 57 |
57.8% / 43.2% |
53.1% / 40.4% |
49.3% / 13.0% |
6.4 / 3.5 |
3.1% / 1.8% |
56.3% / 43.9% |
26.6 / 31.5 |
10 |
@BUF |
47 – 10 W |
17.6 |
44.0% / 40.0% |
0.0% / 6.7% |
0.0% / 3.6% |
7.4 / 4.3 |
62.7% / 40.0% |
11.8% / 46.7% |
5.9 / 4.6 |
76 / 45 |
62.5% / 48.5% |
56.6% / 40.0% |
56.4% / 35.4% |
6.4 / 4.4 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
67.1% / 33.3% |
39.7 / 21.9 |
11 |
WAS |
34 – 31 W |
-5.7 |
57.1% / 47.1% |
4.8% / 5.9% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
8.9 / 8.8 |
60.9% / 51.5% |
17.4% / 12.1% |
7.0 / 4.7 |
65 / 67 |
62.3% / 50.9% |
58.5% / 49.3% |
54.2% / 47.8% |
8.2 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.4% / 49.3% |
24.3 / 23.4 |
12 |
@LA |
20 – 26 L |
-7.2 |
45.7% / 45.8% |
8.6% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
6.4 / 6.8 |
47.1% / 32.1% |
11.8% / 21.4% |
7.2 / 3.3 |
52 / 76 |
52.6% / 49.1% |
46.2% / 40.8% |
51.2% / 61.0% |
6.7 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.7% / 36.8% |
21.2 / 26.2 |
13 |
CAR |
31 – 21 W |
8.7 |
41.7% / 40.0% |
5.6% / 6.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 5.6 |
31.3% / 52.2% |
28.1% / 17.4% |
4.7 / 4.9 |
68 / 53 |
39.1% / 51.2% |
36.8% / 45.3% |
57.6% / 38.4% |
5.9 / 5.3 |
1.5% / 1.9% |
47.1% / 43.4% |
32.1 / 27.8 |
14 |
@ATL |
17 – 20 L |
1.9 |
51.4% / 50.0% |
5.4% / 3.6% |
2.9% / 11.1% |
6.9 / 7.5 |
46.7% / 56.4% |
33.3% / 23.1% |
3.3 / 3.4 |
52 / 67 |
53.7% / 56.9% |
50.0% / 53.7% |
53.6% / 40.9% |
5.9 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.8% / 58.2% |
26.6 / 24.0 |
15 |
NYJ |
31 – 19 W |
6.4 |
50.0% / 30.0% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
2.8% / 5.1% |
7.9 / 4.3 |
41.4% / 46.4% |
20.7% / 14.3% |
4.6 / 4.4 |
65 / 68 |
48.1% / 38.5% |
46.2% / 36.8% |
53.0% / 44.9% |
6.4 / 4.3 |
3.1% / 0.0% |
44.6% / 41.2% |
31.3 / 25.9 |
16 |
ATL |
23 – 13 W |
8.2 |
48.3% / 46.3% |
3.4% / 12.2% |
3.6% / 2.8% |
7.9 / 6.4 |
25.7% / 33.3% |
28.6% / 28.6% |
2.5 / 3.2 |
64 / 62 |
43.2% / 51.1% |
35.9% / 41.9% |
58.5% / 50.0% |
5.0 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
54.7% / 33.9% |
29.3 / 33.2 |
17 |
@TB |
24 – 31 L |
1.8 |
59.4% / 49.1% |
6.3% / 3.8% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
7.2 / 6.5 |
42.3% / 67.9% |
26.9% / 14.3% |
3.5 / 3.9 |
58 / 81 |
53.3% / 50.0% |
51.7% / 55.6% |
41.8% / 21.8% |
5.6 / 5.6 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
44.8% / 34.6% |
25.7 / 19.7 |
18 |
CAR |
31 – 26 W |
6.9 |
59.5% / 44.4% |
10.8% / 8.9% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
10.0 / 6.8 |
43.5% / 34.6% |
26.1% / 26.9% |
1.8 / 4.1 |
60 / 71 |
65.2% / 38.5% |
53.3% / 40.8% |
36.7% / 47.7% |
6.9 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.3% / 36.6% |
27.1 / 26.1 |
19 |
@MIN |
24 – 29 L |
-10.6 |
55.8% / 42.9% |
4.7% / 4.8% |
4.9% / 2.5% |
6.5 / 7.3 |
52.0% / 51.7% |
16.0% / 17.2% |
3.2 / 3.3 |
68 / 71 |
60.7% / 42.6% |
54.4% / 46.5% |
30.4% / 45.7% |
5.3 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
36.8% / 40.8% |
29.9 / 30.6 |