Game Analysis
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1-Star Best Bet – *KANSAS CITY (-8.5) over Tampa Bay
- Kansas City’s offense has a league-high 49% rush success rate, and the ground game has a favorable matchup versus Tampa Bay’s defense surrendering 5.2 yards per rush (30th).
- Patrick Mahomes will have protection with Buccaneers interior defender Vita Vea shut down by C Creed Humphrey, who leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency. Tampa Bay edge rusher Yaya Diaby has 31 pressures (10th) but he will be limited by right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who ranks 17th in pass blocking efficiency.
- The Buccaneers’ defense is surrendering a league-high 0.71 EPA/target to opposing tight ends and they will struggle against TE Travis Kelce, whose 65% success rate ranks 2nd.
- Tampa Bay’s offense is without wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who rank 3rd and 16 respectively in success rate. WR Jalen McMillan led the Buccaneers wide receivers with 7 targets last week, but he will be shut down by Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie, who is conceding 0.68 yards per cover snap (10th).
- Baker Mayfield without his WRs will not be able to depend on his ground game as Kansas City’s defense is conceding a league-low 3.0 yards per rush on running back carries this season.
- Our model favors the Chiefs by 11.7 points, with a predicted total of 43.5 points, and Kansas City applies to an 80-35-1 ATS Monday night situation. The Chiefs also tend to play better after a point spread loss or push (9-1 ATS recently, including 2-0 ATS this season) than they do after a good performance.
Kansas City is a 1-Star Best Bet at -9.5 or less.