Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Tampa Bay (+2.5 Even) over INDIANAPOLIS

· Indianapolis’ yards per attempt against the blitz is a league-low 70% of their yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush and Shane Steichen’s offense will struggle as the Buccaneers have a 48.5% blitz rate (2nd-highest).

· Furthermore, Gardner Minshew won’t have starting center Ryan Kelley to set the protections against the blitz as he’s out with a concussion. Kelly leads the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency. Colts’ backup C Wesley French is surrendering a 7.9% pressure rate and he’ll have his hands full across from interior defender Vita Vea, who ranks 13th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Baker Mayfield is averaging 53% more yards per attempt versus zone coverage this season than man (2nd-largest gap) and Indianapolis has a league-high 91.3% zone coverage rate so Baker should have a good game.

· Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin is leading the NFL with 12 contested receptions and WR Mike Evans is averaging 0.45 EPA/target (13th). Colts starting CB JuJu Brents is out again leaving one of Evans or Godwin in a favorable matchup each dropback across from backup cornerback Darrell Baker, who is surrendering 8.2 yards per target.

· Our model predicts a margin of 0.0, with a total of 44.0 points, and the matchup clearly favors the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay is a Strong Opinion at +2.5 -115 odds or better.