Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

1-Star Best Bet – *First Half Over (24.5)

Lean – Tampa Bay (-3) over INDIANAPOLIS

The Colts rushed for 264 yards during last week’s blowout win in Buffalo and Jonathan Taylor converted 44% of his carries into a first down or touchdown, but I do not think Indianapolis will lean on the ground game as much this Sunday. Opposing offenses have a league-high 67% pass play rate against the Buccaneers and Tampa Bay has the 8th-rated rush defense by our metrics. I expect Frank Reich to be more aggressive throwing the ball with interior defender Vita Vea (11.5% run stop rate) returning for the Buccaneers this week.

Tampa CB Carlton Davis is unlikely to suit up again, which means we’ll see CB Sean Murphy-Bunting out of position again as he usually lines up as a nickelback when Tampa Bay’s secondary is at full strength. Murphy-Bunting is surrendering 2.10 yards per route run when lined up on the outside this season. Michael Pittman is averaging 1.98 yards per route run (17th) and Carson Wentz will look for him downfield when lined up across from Murphy-Bunting.

Tom Brady’s top two wide receivers should have no problem getting open against the Colts secondary. Chris Godwin is averaging 1.75 yards per route run in the slot (6th) and will line up across from Kenny Moore, who is allowing 1.47 yards per route run in the slot ranking 21st out of 24 qualifying nickelbacks. Indianapolis CB Xavier Rhodes is surrendering 1.72 yards per cover snap and has no chance of staying with Mike Evans, who has 7 receptions on passes with at least 20 air yards (11th).

Our model favors the Buccaneers by 7.6 points, with a predicted total of 55.4 points. The first half total over is a better option than the full game over in this case.

Team Stats
Game Log

Buccaneers
Colts

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 44.60 41.70
Succ Pass Plays 53.1% 48.0%
Sack Rate 2.9% 5.8%
Int Rate 1.8% 3.1%
Deep Pass Rate 19.7% 14.0%
Big Pass Yards 39.7% 36.5%
NYPP 7.06 5.84

Rush

Rush Plays 21.90 20.60
RB YPR 4.09 3.61
Stuff Rate 21.5% 27.7%
Succ Rush Plays 56.6% 42.7%
Big Rush Yards 32.6% 45.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.16 3.81

Game

All Snaps 66.50 62.30
Early Down Succ 56.5% 49.4%
Succ Rate 54.3% 46.2%
Big Yards Rate 38.1% 38.7%
Yards Per Play 6.10 5.17
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.62 28.25
Run Ratio 32.9% 33.1%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control 4.84 -4.84

Points 30.90 22.20

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DAL	31 – 29 W	3.19	56.0% / 57.6%	0.0% / 1.7%	4.0% / 1.7%	7.58 / 6.63	64.3% / 38.9%	7.1% / 27.8%	3.71 / 3.33	64 / 77	60.4% / 54.2%	57.8% / 53.2%	38.5% / 32.0%	6.73 / 5.86	3.1% / 0.0%	21.9% / 23.4%	32.69 / 26.92
2	ATL	48 – 25 W	9.88	48.7% / 46.9%	7.7% / 2.0%	0.0% / 6.3%	6.64 / 5.98	57.1% / 30.0%	28.6% / 40.0%	3.90 / 2.75	60 / 69	57.8% / 44.0%	51.7% / 42.0%	44.1% / 35.5%	5.68 / 5.04	1.7% / 0.0%	35.0% / 29.0%	39.75 / 27.29
3	@LA	24 – 34 L	-8.05	55.2% / 56.4%	5.2% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.09 / 8.49	46.2% / 45.8%	23.1% / 29.2%	2.69 / 3.17	71 / 63	58.5% / 48.9%	53.5% / 52.4%	32.8% / 53.9%	6.28 / 6.46	0.0% / 0.0%	18.3% / 38.1%	21.00 / 33.80
4	@NE	19 – 17 W	0.20	40.9% / 54.3%	2.3% / 8.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	5.93 / 6.41	53.3% / 25.0%	23.3% / 75.0%	3.97 / -0.13	74 / 54	46.3% / 59.5%	45.9% / 50.0%	42.3% / 22.6%	5.14 / 5.44	0.0% / 1.9%	40.5% / 14.8%	25.64 / 29.64
5	MIA	45 – 17 W	9.98	68.1% / 54.8%	4.3% / 7.1%	0.0% / 2.6%	9.30 / 6.24	64.0% / 44.4%	24.0% / 22.2%	4.84 / 4.33	72 / 51	66.7% / 59.5%	66.7% / 52.9%	39.6% / 50.0%	7.75 / 5.90	0.0% / 2.0%	34.7% / 17.6%	29.30 / 23.67
6	@PHI	28 – 22 W	9.08	54.8% / 32.1%	0.0% / 7.1%	2.4% / 3.8%	7.07 / 4.04	51.6% / 52.6%	29.0% / 31.6%	3.29 / 5.26	73 / 47	54.2% / 44.1%	53.4% / 40.4%	23.1% / 60.9%	5.47 / 4.53	0.0% / 0.0%	42.5% / 40.4%	28.55 / 24.60
7	CHI	38 – 3 W	23.96	43.6% / 50.0%	0.0% / 11.1%	0.0% / 9.4%	5.79 / 4.67	67.7% / 51.7%	12.9% / 31.0%	5.87 / 4.93	70 / 65	58.9% / 60.8%	54.3% / 50.8%	51.2% / 41.0%	5.83 / 4.78	1.4% / 3.1%	44.3% / 44.6%	43.58 / 23.69
8	@NO	27 – 36 L	-2.59	50.0% / 37.5%	6.8% / 2.5%	4.9% / 0.0%	7.95 / 5.23	50.0% / 34.4%	28.6% / 12.5%	5.07 / 4.75	58 / 72	48.8% / 35.2%	50.0% / 36.1%	55.6% / 35.1%	7.26 / 5.01	1.7% / 0.0%	24.1% / 44.4%	26.08 / 34.00
10	@WAS	19 – 29 L	-6.90	55.9% / 48.6%	0.0% / 13.5%	5.9% / 0.0%	6.47 / 6.11	61.5% / 44.1%	7.7% / 20.6%	4.08 / 2.76	47 / 71	60.0% / 44.4%	57.4% / 46.5%	33.3% / 28.6%	5.81 / 4.51	0.0% / 1.4%	27.7% / 47.9%	33.50 / 32.22
11	NYG	30 – 10 W	9.65	55.1% / 31.7%	2.0% / 4.9%	2.1% / 5.1%	6.29 / 3.63	48.1% / 53.8%	22.2% / 23.1%	3.48 / 5.08	76 / 54	53.2% / 42.9%	52.6% / 37.0%	18.4% / 33.0%	5.29 / 3.98	0.0% / 1.9%	35.5% / 24.1%	0.00 / 0.00

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SEA	16 – 28 L	-7.55	48.8% / 57.7%	7.3% / 11.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.44 / 9.27	60.0% / 66.7%	13.3% / 14.8%	3.77 / 5.19	71 / 53	60.0% / 69.0%	53.5% / 62.3%	9.9% / 51.0%	4.73 / 7.19	1.4% / 1.9%	42.3% / 50.9%	23.18 / 32.70
2	LA	24 – 27 L	-3.60	46.2% / 58.1%	7.7% / 3.2%	5.6% / 3.3%	6.28 / 8.71	53.8% / 50.0%	23.1% / 21.4%	4.19 / 3.61	65 / 59	51.9% / 59.2%	49.2% / 54.2%	36.2% / 40.6%	5.45 / 6.29	0.0% / 1.7%	40.0% / 47.5%	29.70 / 24.40
3	@TEN	16 – 25 L	-4.29	30.8% / 53.6%	5.1% / 3.6%	0.0% / 7.4%	4.56 / 6.71	61.1% / 37.8%	16.7% / 27.0%	4.83 / 4.86	57 / 65	42.9% / 42.3%	40.4% / 44.6%	30.6% / 39.8%	4.65 / 5.66	0.0% / 1.5%	31.6% / 56.9%	31.44 / 26.78
4	@MIA	27 – 17 W	4.25	35.3% / 51.5%	5.9% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.18 / 5.09	42.4% / 50.0%	39.4% / 31.3%	4.21 / 2.19	67 / 49	37.3% / 58.8%	38.8% / 51.0%	56.1% / 47.4%	5.21 / 4.14	1.5% / 4.1%	49.3% / 32.7%	32.40 / 31.50
5	@BLT	25 – 31 L	8.82	54.1% / 77.8%	5.4% / 4.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.54 / 9.71	61.5% / 44.0%	23.1% / 24.0%	4.73 / 3.44	63 / 70	58.8% / 71.7%	57.1% / 65.7%	61.7% / 32.4%	8.14 / 7.47	1.6% / 1.4%	41.3% / 35.7%	22.50 / 20.80
6	HST	31 – 3 W	12.03	40.9% / 51.1%	9.1% / 4.4%	0.0% / 4.7%	9.73 / 5.09	30.8% / 34.5%	26.9% / 34.5%	6.69 / 4.28	48 / 74	36.1% / 41.8%	35.4% / 44.6%	65.5% / 24.5%	8.08 / 4.77	0.0% / 1.4%	54.2% / 39.2%	25.00 / 23.55
7	@SF	30 – 18 W	-0.02	25.9% / 37.9%	3.7% / 6.9%	0.0% / 7.4%	5.44 / 5.83	42.4% / 50.0%	33.3% / 20.8%	4.48 / 4.63	60 / 53	31.8% / 53.7%	35.0% / 43.4%	54.0% / 49.3%	4.92 / 5.28	3.3% / 3.8%	55.0% / 45.3%	36.46 / 28.36
8	TEN	31 – 34 L	3.46	42.3% / 43.2%	1.9% / 8.1%	3.9% / 5.9%	4.31 / 6.68	70.0% / 35.5%	5.0% / 25.8%	4.15 / 3.00	72 / 68	50.9% / 37.0%	50.0% / 39.7%	31.2% / 23.2%	4.26 / 5.00	0.0% / 0.0%	27.8% / 45.6%	30.92 / 29.25
9	NYJ	45 – 30 W	13.38	64.5% / 50.0%	3.2% / 3.7%	0.0% / 1.9%	8.77 / 7.37	50.0% / 57.1%	16.7% / 19.0%	8.67 / 4.19	61 / 75	60.4% / 51.7%	57.4% / 52.0%	58.3% / 24.2%	8.72 / 6.48	0.0% / 1.3%	49.2% / 28.0%	29.00 / 20.45
10	JAX	23 – 17 W	8.74	34.3% / 34.2%	2.9% / 7.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.80 / 4.00	48.1% / 58.3%	29.6% / 16.7%	4.70 / 7.46	62 / 62	45.7% / 50.0%	40.3% / 43.5%	26.4% / 49.0%	4.76 / 5.34	0.0% / 1.6%	43.5% / 38.7%	25.50 / 26.62
11	@BUF	41 – 15 W	15.20	45.0% / 51.2%	0.0% / 2.4%	0.0% / 7.5%	5.30 / 5.27	65.2% / 69.2%	19.6% / 7.7%	5.74 / 7.00	66 / 54	58.5% / 58.1%	59.1% / 55.6%	43.0% / 27.9%	5.61 / 5.69	0.0% / 0.0%	69.7% / 24.1%	0.00 / 0.00

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Nov 28

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis