Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Tampa Bay (+3) over CHICAGO

Jameis Winston has now served his suspension and returns to the Buccaneers after Ryan Fitzpatrick became the first player in NFL history to throw for 400 yards in three consecutive games. Dirk Koetter will not make his starting quarterback decision public until perhaps Sunday, but I’m guessing we’ll see Fitzpatrick out there again on a short leash. Tampa Bay’s offense ranks first in our season-to-date metrics and we value Winston and Fitzpatrick about the same (based on longer-term metrics) so there’s no reason for a change unless the front office gets involved as they will need to make a decision on the future of their former first-overall pick quarterback this offseason.

The Buccaneers are gaining 7.8 yards per play this season despite a rushing attack ranked 28th in our metrics because Fitzpatrick is playing way above his normal level. I don’t expect the Bucs to find much room on the ground versus a Bears defense ranked first against the run through three weeks and Fitzmagic is due to regress towards mortal status. Overall, Chicago’s defense is surrendering a success rate of just 40%, the second-best mark in the NFL, and the reason Tampa Bay’s market implied team total is only 22 points despite averaging 34 points in their first 3 games.

Mitch Trubisky is struggling on the other side of the ball for the Bears, throwing for just 4.7 yards per pass play, which ranks 29^th in the league. Head coach Matt Nagy turned Alex Smith into a vertical passer when he took over as the play-caller last year in Kansas City, but he hasn’t had the same success with Trubisky, who ranks 28th in deep passing accuracy. The Bears are one of 5 teams to not score a touchdown on a pass traveling more than 20 yards downfield this season. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 30th in our chunk plays conceded metric and Trubisky will need to exploit this matchup if the Bears are to win this game. Our model favors Chicago by 1.8 points with a true total of 47.0 and I’ll lean slightly with Tampa Bay at +3 points or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Buccaneers
Bears

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.7 45.7
Succ Pass Plays 56.5% 55.7%
Sack Rate 3.8% 5.2%
Int Rate 3.0% 0.9%
Deep Pass Rate 27.5% 14.7%
Big Pass Yards 53.7% 38.8%
NYPP 11.2 8.0

Rush

Rush Plays 26.0 20.7
RB YPR 2.4 3.5
Stuff Rate 26.1% 24.0%
Succ Rush Plays 38.4% 53.1%
Big Rush Yards 31.7% 38.7%
Yards Per Rush 2.9 3.4

Game

All Snaps 64.7 66.3
Early Down Succ 51.2% 59.9%
Succ Rate 47.9% 54.8%
Big Yards Rate 50.5% 39.3%
Yards Per Play 7.4 6.6
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 2.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.6 28.3
Run Ratio 40.6% 30.8%
Starting Field Pos 26.3 26.5
Game Control 2.9 -2.9

Points 34.0 30.3

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NO	48 – 40 W	7.4	64.3% / 73.9%	0.0% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	14.9 / 9.4	43.2% / 69.2%	18.9% / 23.1%	3.1 / 3.3	65 / 59	56.5% / 77.6%	52.3% / 72.9%	62.7% / 36.4%	8.2 / 8.1	0.0% / 3.4%	56.9% / 22.0%	26.4 / 25.9
2	PHI	27 – 21 W	11.1	60.0% / 42.0%	5.7% / 6.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	11.2 / 6.4	25.0% / 54.2%	41.7% / 20.8%	1.8 / 3.8	59 / 74	48.9% / 48.1%	45.8% / 45.9%	45.3% / 36.2%	7.4 / 5.6	1.7% / 2.7%	40.7% / 32.4%	27.2 / 25.5
3	PIT	27 – 30 L	-9.7	45.3% / 51.2%	5.7% / 7.3%	6.0% / 2.6%	7.4 / 8.2	47.1% / 36.0%	17.6% / 28.0%	3.8 / 3.2	70 / 66	48.3% / 54.0%	45.7% / 45.5%	43.6% / 45.4%	6.5 / 6.3	1.4% / 0.0%	24.3% / 37.9%	25.2 / 28.0

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@GB	23 – 24 L	9.5	35.9% / 43.9%	10.3% / 9.8%	0.0% / 2.7%	4.0 / 7.3	59.3% / 27.8%	18.5% / 16.7%	5.1 / 3.8	66 / 59	48.9% / 40.0%	45.5% / 39.0%	38.1% / 59.5%	4.5 / 6.3	1.5% / 1.7%	40.9% / 30.5%	25.7 / 30.7
2	SEA	24 – 17 W	7.4	52.8% / 43.6%	5.6% / 15.4%	5.9% / 3.0%	5.1 / 5.2	48.3% / 45.5%	13.8% / 13.6%	3.0 / 3.4	65 / 61	55.1% / 44.9%	50.8% / 44.3%	6.3% / 23.2%	4.2 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.6%	44.6% / 36.1%	33.6 / 24.5
3	@ARI	16 – 14 W	-7.2	42.1% / 40.0%	7.9% / 13.3%	2.9% / 11.5%	5.1 / 5.6	54.8% / 33.3%	22.6% / 27.8%	3.9 / 2.9	69 / 48	50.0% / 40.5%	47.8% / 37.5%	37.7% / 58.8%	4.6 / 4.6	1.4% / 2.1%	44.9% / 37.5%	27.8 / 32.8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Sep 30

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis