Game Analysis

Lean – CAROLINA (+4.5) over Tampa Bay

Lean- Under (37.5)

· The Buccaneers have to win for a playoff berth and the NFC South title.

· Tampa Bay’s defense will likely get back starting cornerback Carlton Davis and edge rusher Shaquil Barrett, who leads the Buccaneers with 48 pressures.

· Bryce Young threw for a season-low 112 yards last week versus the Jaguars as he completed just 3 passes against the blitz. Tampa Bay’s defense has a 49.1% blitz rate (3rd-highest) so Young will be tested again.

· Baker Mayfield’s yards per attempt versus the blitz is 14% higher than his yards per attempt against a standard pass rush (5th-largest gap) and the Panthers have a 41.7% blitz rate (4th-highest).

· Mayfield also figures to have a favorable matchup given the type of coverage he’ll likely get this week. Mayfield is averaging 37% more yards per attempt versus zone than man coverage this season (3rd-largest gap) and Carolina’s defense has an 86.2% zone coverage rate (3rd-highest).

· However, Mayfield struggled in week 13 against the Panthers with only a 29.4% success rate (2nd-worst).

· Carolina’s defense is allowing a league-low -0.39 EPA/target to running backs and they will shut down RB Rachaad White, who is averaging 1.23 yards per route run (10th).

· Teams in a must-win (i.e. eliminated with a loss) in the final two weeks of the season are just 71-102-5 ATS against teams that are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

· Our model favors the Buccaneers by 3.4 points, with a predicted total of 34.5 points.