Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Carolina Panthers

Thu, Sep 12
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 101
Odds: Carolina Panthers -7, Total: 49

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

CAROLINA (-6.5/-7) vs Tampa Bay

Jameis Winston threw two pick 6’s in week 1 and probably should have thrown another two interceptions that were dropped. Now, Winston will have to deal with Luke Kuechly’s play recognition and likely won’t find success dropping it off to his running backs, who he targeted 10 times against San Francisco. The Panthers cornerbacks played surprisingly well against the Rams excellent wide receivers in week 1 with James Bradberry conceding just 11 yards from 4 targets and adding an interception while Donte Jackson allowed 4 catches for 48 yards with 20 of those being after the catch. The cornerbacks will face another tough test on Thursday as both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin finished 2018 in the top 20 in yards per route run. Buccaneers guard Ali Marpet is good enough to slow down Kawaan Short on his own and Tampa Bay should use center Ryan Jensen to double team former teammate Gerald McCoy. If not, first year starter Alex Cappa will be in trouble after surrendering 4 pressures last week, tied for 6th-most among guards.

The Buccaneers have played Cam Newton enough to know the importance of keeping him contained if the quarterback doesn’t end up putting restrictions on himself. Newton did not scramble until the 11 minute mark of the 3rd quarter last week and it may be a sign the ankle injury he suffered in the preseason is still bothering him. Newton should still have plenty of time in the pocket as Tampa Bay’s pass rush is weak and Ndamukong Suh had zero pressures in his debut. Christian McCaffrey is in line for another nice game catching passes out of the backfield exploiting Devin White after the rookie linebacker surrendered 2.71 yards per cover snap in his NFL debut, which is very high.

Both of these NFC South teams look to avoid an 0-2 start and our model makes Carolina a 7.2-point favorite with a predicted total of 49.6. As far as the technical analysis is concerned, Thursday favorites tend to be good bets because better teams usually can perform better with less prep time than bad teams do. In fact, Thursday favorites of more than 3 points, with both teams having played the previous week, are 77-47-2 ATS since 1991. However, Carolina also applies to a 4-42 ATS home favorite situation that is 0-1 ATS when applying to a Thursday night favorite, so the situation favors the Bucs a bit. I’ll be passing on this one.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers


  • Pass Plays 33.5 41.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 36.3% 41.8%
  • Sack Rate 9.2% 4.6%
  • Int Rate 4.2% 1.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 25.1% 16.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 42.2% 44.8%
  • NYPP 5.6 5.7


  • Rush Plays 28.5 25.5
  • RB YPR 4.0 2.7
  • Stuff Rate 24.4% 46.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.7% 30.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 48.0% 39.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 2.6


  • All Snaps 62.0 66.5
  • Early Down Succ 43.3% 41.4%
  • Succ Rate 39.4% 37.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 45.0% 45.6%
  • Yards Per Play 4.7 4.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 1.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 31.1 25.7
  • Run Ratio 46.3% 39.7%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.5 28.5
  • Game Control -1.4 1.4
  • Points 18.5 22.5
Share This