Game Analysis
Lean – Tampa Bay (+6.5/+6) over CAROLINA
Jameis Winston threw 4 interceptions in the opening 3 quarters last week in Cincinnati and was benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who brought the Buccaneers back from an 18-point deficit before losing by a field-goal. Fitzpatrick’s heroics earned him the starting job and we may have seen the end of the Jamies Winston era in Tampa Bay. Fitzpatrick leads the NFL with 10.0 yards per pass play mostly due to his vertical success as he ranks 8th in yards from deep passes despite only playing about half the season. Fitzpatrick should have time to look downfield this week with Carolina’s best pass rusher Kawan Short, who ranks 8th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defensive linemen, limited by Buccaneers’ left guard Ali Marpet, who’s surrendered just 1 sack this season. DeSean Jackson requested a trade but he may be glad he wasn’t moved at the deadline with Fitzpatrick back under center. Jackson leads the NFL with 334 receiving yards from deep passes, mostly in those first 4 weeks with Fitz at quarterback, and should continue connecting with Fitzpatrick as the season progresses – although maybe not this week. Panthers’ rookie cornerback Donte Jackson has allowed just 5 receptions on 17 targets 10+ yards downfield and also has 3 interceptions.
Carolina replaced left tackle Matt Kalil (out for season) with Chris Clark and he’s certainly played like a replacement-level player thus far. Clark will likely be overmatched on the outside lining up across from Jason Pierre-Paul, whose recorded 8 sacks this season (t-2nd). Tampa Bay’s defensive front may also benefit from 6-time Pro-Bowler Gerald McCoy returning after missing the last two games with a calf injury.
Our model favors the Panthers by 5.5 points, assuming Fitzpatrick’s level of play comes back down to earth, so there is some value on the Bucs. But, the reason for leaning with Tampa Bay is a 45-125-2 ATS home favorite letdown situation that applies to Carolina and is based on the Panthers’ consecutive upset wins.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
44.6
40.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.8%
54.0%
-
Sack Rate
6.2%
5.7%
-
Int Rate
4.8%
0.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
25.6%
20.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.5%
42.8%
-
NYPP
9.0
8.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.1
24.0
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
23.8%
27.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.4%
47.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.1%
55.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
69.7
64.0
-
Early Down Succ
49.7%
55.6%
-
Succ Rate
48.5%
51.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.1%
46.7%
-
Yards Per Play
6.8
6.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.2
27.8
-
Run Ratio
36.3%
37.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.3
28.0
-
Game Control
-4.2
4.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.3
37.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.9%
52.3%
-
Sack Rate
4.4%
6.8%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
3.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.9%
20.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
30.5%
37.8%
-
NYPP
7.0
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.9
22.1
-
RB YPR
4.7
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
20.7%
23.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.5%
48.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
56.2%
56.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.1
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
62.1
59.3
-
Early Down Succ
53.5%
51.1%
-
Succ Rate
50.6%
49.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.4%
42.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.6
30.2
-
Run Ratio
46.3%
37.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.7
25.4
-
Game Control
0.8
-0.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NO |
48 – 40 W |
7.4 |
64.3% /
73.9% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
14.9 /
9.4 |
43.2% /
69.2% |
18.9% /
23.1% |
3.1 /
3.3 |
65 /
59 |
56.5% /
77.6% |
52.3% /
72.9% |
62.7% /
36.4% |
8.2 /
8.1 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
56.9% /
22.0% |
26.4 /
25.9 |
| 2 |
PHI |
27 – 21 W |
11.1 |
60.0% /
42.0% |
5.7% /
6.0% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
11.2 /
6.4 |
25.0% /
54.2% |
41.7% /
20.8% |
1.8 /
3.8 |
59 /
74 |
48.9% /
48.1% |
45.8% /
45.9% |
45.3% /
36.2% |
7.4 /
5.6 |
1.7% /
2.7% |
40.7% /
32.4% |
27.2 /
25.5 |
| 3 |
PIT |
27 – 30 L |
-9.7 |
45.3% /
51.2% |
5.7% /
7.3% |
6.0% /
2.6% |
7.4 /
8.2 |
47.1% /
36.0% |
17.6% /
28.0% |
3.8 /
3.2 |
70 /
66 |
48.3% /
54.0% |
45.7% /
45.5% |
43.6% /
45.4% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
24.3% /
37.9% |
25.2 /
28.0 |
| 4 |
@CHI |
10 – 48 L |
-27.7 |
45.2% /
66.7% |
9.5% /
3.7% |
7.9% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
12.7 |
38.9% /
51.5% |
22.2% /
27.3% |
3.3 /
4.3 |
60 /
60 |
45.7% /
64.6% |
43.3% /
58.3% |
32.8% /
72.6% |
5.2 /
8.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.0% /
55.0% |
23.8 /
27.5 |
| 6 |
@ATL |
29 – 34 L |
-6.3 |
61.9% /
57.1% |
4.8% /
2.4% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
8.2 |
55.0% /
40.9% |
25.0% /
36.4% |
6.2 /
3.2 |
62 /
64 |
59.3% /
49.0% |
59.7% /
51.6% |
32.8% /
40.9% |
8.3 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.3% /
34.4% |
28.6 /
21.9 |
| 7 |
CLE |
26 – 23 W |
6.5 |
51.8% /
38.5% |
7.1% /
12.8% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
4.8 |
42.4% /
39.1% |
30.3% /
30.4% |
3.5 /
5.2 |
89 /
62 |
49.3% /
45.7% |
48.3% /
38.7% |
35.4% /
41.0% |
5.1 /
4.9 |
2.2% /
1.6% |
37.1% /
37.1% |
21.3 /
37.6 |
| 8 |
@CIN |
34 – 37 L |
-10.5 |
41.1% /
48.6% |
10.7% /
5.7% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
7.5 |
51.9% /
42.9% |
11.1% /
28.6% |
4.7 /
5.0 |
83 /
63 |
39.7% /
50.0% |
44.6% /
46.0% |
49.0% /
54.6% |
6.9 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.5% /
44.4% |
24.5 /
29.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
DAL |
16 – 8 W |
6.7 |
50.0% /
37.1% |
10.7% /
17.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
3.9 |
44.7% /
26.1% |
21.1% /
17.4% |
3.9 /
4.1 |
66 /
58 |
58.7% /
38.6% |
47.0% /
32.8% |
28.7% /
22.7% |
4.5 /
4.0 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
57.6% /
39.7% |
38.1 /
21.4 |
| 2 |
@ATL |
24 – 31 L |
-5.0 |
53.2% /
67.9% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
2.2% /
3.6% |
6.8 /
9.7 |
66.7% /
50.0% |
11.1% /
31.3% |
6.7 /
5.3 |
65 /
60 |
58.5% /
59.2% |
56.9% /
58.3% |
44.4% /
55.9% |
6.8 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
27.7% /
53.3% |
19.5 /
26.2 |
| 3 |
CIN |
31 – 21 W |
4.5 |
40.0% /
53.2% |
4.0% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
8.9% |
5.9 /
7.0 |
47.6% /
53.8% |
21.4% /
23.1% |
5.5 /
5.1 |
67 /
60 |
46.2% /
56.0% |
44.8% /
53.3% |
54.8% /
58.1% |
5.6 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
62.7% /
21.7% |
30.5 /
23.5 |
| 5 |
NYG |
33 – 31 W |
5.4 |
76.2% /
75.0% |
4.8% /
4.2% |
10.0% /
8.7% |
11.0 /
15.9 |
40.6% /
25.0% |
28.1% /
43.8% |
3.7 /
3.1 |
53 /
40 |
47.1% /
46.7% |
54.7% /
55.0% |
52.7% /
59.3% |
6.6 /
10.8 |
0.0% /
2.5% |
60.4% /
40.0% |
28.5 /
30.5 |
| 6 |
@WAS |
17 – 23 L |
-9.4 |
53.7% /
35.9% |
2.4% /
7.7% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
4.0 |
47.4% /
51.7% |
26.3% /
10.3% |
4.3 /
4.6 |
60 /
68 |
58.3% /
43.8% |
51.7% /
42.6% |
25.9% /
36.3% |
5.9 /
4.3 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
42.6% |
20.3 /
33.7 |
| 7 |
@PHI |
21 – 17 W |
-6.8 |
51.2% /
51.2% |
4.9% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
6.9 |
61.1% /
54.2% |
16.7% /
25.0% |
6.8 /
2.4 |
59 /
65 |
57.8% /
57.1% |
54.2% /
52.3% |
50.0% /
37.7% |
6.3 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
30.5% /
36.9% |
26.3 /
19.8 |
| 8 |
BAL |
36 – 21 W |
10.2 |
60.0% /
45.7% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
7.7 /
4.9 |
31.4% /
77.8% |
20.0% /
16.7% |
4.5 /
5.6 |
65 /
64 |
47.9% /
56.0% |
44.6% /
54.7% |
26.3% /
26.2% |
6.0 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
53.8% /
28.1% |
37.5 /
23.0 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@ 
Carolina Panthers