Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Carolina Panthers

Sun, Dec 24
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 113
Odds: Carolina Panthers -10, Total: 46.5

Game Analysis

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**Tampa Bay (+10) over CAROLINA

Lean – Under (46.5)

The Buccaneers were favored by 1 point in week 8 when these two teams squared off in Tampa Bay and they held Carolina’s offense to just 4.0 yards per play despite losing 17-3. These teams weren’t considered that drastically different then and nothing really has changed. Carolina has averaged 5.3 yards per play and allowed 5.3 yppl and the Panthers’ 10-4 record is more luck then skill, as they’ve been fortunate to go 7-1 in one-possession games. Absent of a meaningless late Tevin Coleman touchdown, the Buccaneers have been within one-score in their last 6 games and the Bucs aren’t nearly as bad as their 4-10 record would suggest. Tampa Bay has lost their last 3 games by 3 points, by 3 points and in overtime and the Bucs are just 2-6 this season in one-possession games.

My model sees significant value on Tampa Bay in this game and the Buccaneers apply to a 92-28-1 ATS situation that plays on losing teams as underdogs that are coming off a competitive, spread covering loss. Carolina, meanwhile, applies to a very negative 42-122-2 ATS home favorite letdown situation and teams playing their 3rd consecutive home game are just 6-23 ATS laying 5 points or more. That 80-25-2 ATS week 16 underdog angle also applies to the Bucs and I’ll play Tampa Bay in a 2-Star Best Bet at +8 points or more and for 1-Star at +7.5 points. I also lean under the total based on a 167-95-2 late-season divisional game Under angle.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers
TB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.6 36.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.1% 50.4%
  • Sack Rate 5.8% 3.7%
  • Int Rate 2.0% 2.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.7% 20.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 27.4% 38.7%
  • NYPP 6.6 7.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.6 28.4
  • RB YPR 3.5 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 22.6% 26.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 43.3% 40.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 30.8% 45.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.1




Game

  • All Snaps 64.3 64.8
  • Early Down Succ 49.3% 47.7%
  • Succ Rate 47.0% 46.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 29.3% 42.4%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 1.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.6 28.4
  • Run Ratio 37.9% 43.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.1 27.6
  • Game Control -3.4 3.4
 
  • Points 20.4 24.0
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