Game Analysis
**Tampa Bay (+10) over CAROLINA
Lean – Under (46.5)
The Buccaneers were favored by 1 point in week 8 when these two teams squared off in Tampa Bay and they held Carolina’s offense to just 4.0 yards per play despite losing 17-3. These teams weren’t considered that drastically different then and nothing really has changed. Carolina has averaged 5.3 yards per play and allowed 5.3 yppl and the Panthers’ 10-4 record is more luck then skill, as they’ve been fortunate to go 7-1 in one-possession games. Absent of a meaningless late Tevin Coleman touchdown, the Buccaneers have been within one-score in their last 6 games and the Bucs aren’t nearly as bad as their 4-10 record would suggest. Tampa Bay has lost their last 3 games by 3 points, by 3 points and in overtime and the Bucs are just 2-6 this season in one-possession games.
My model sees significant value on Tampa Bay in this game and the Buccaneers apply to a 92-28-1 ATS situation that plays on losing teams as underdogs that are coming off a competitive, spread covering loss. Carolina, meanwhile, applies to a very negative 42-122-2 ATS home favorite letdown situation and teams playing their 3rd consecutive home game are just 6-23 ATS laying 5 points or more. That 80-25-2 ATS week 16 underdog angle also applies to the Bucs and I’ll play Tampa Bay in a 2-Star Best Bet at +8 points or more and for 1-Star at +7.5 points. I also lean under the total based on a 167-95-2 late-season divisional game Under angle.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.6
36.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.1%
50.4%
-
Sack Rate
5.8%
3.7%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.7%
20.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
27.4%
38.7%
-
NYPP
6.6
7.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.6
28.4
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
22.6%
26.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.3%
40.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.8%
45.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
64.3
64.8
-
Early Down Succ
49.3%
47.7%
-
Succ Rate
47.0%
46.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
29.3%
42.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
28.4
-
Run Ratio
37.9%
43.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.1
27.6
-
Game Control
-3.4
3.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.6
37.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.3%
43.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
9.6%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.2%
20.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.2%
40.4%
-
NYPP
6.0
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.7
22.6
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
23.9%
26.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.8%
41.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.2%
50.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
66.4
59.6
-
Early Down Succ
46.7%
47.0%
-
Succ Rate
44.3%
43.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.9%
42.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.9
27.3
-
Run Ratio
49.3%
38.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.6
28.0
-
Game Control
2.0
-2.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
2 |
CHI |
29 – 7 W |
18.1 |
48.5% / 56.5% |
6.1% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 4.4% |
5.9 / 6.3 |
36.1% / 25.0% |
11.1% / 43.8% |
3.3 / 1.3 |
69 / 62 |
41.2% / 50.0% |
42.0% / 48.4% |
14.4% / 6.5% |
4.5 / 5.0 |
1.4% / 3.2% |
52.2% / 25.8% |
31.1 / 27.0 |
3 |
@MIN |
17 – 34 L |
-13.1 |
57.1% / 63.6% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 11.2 |
44.4% / 37.5% |
11.1% / 12.5% |
2.9 / 3.2 |
51 / 73 |
60.0% / 52.7% |
54.9% / 49.3% |
16.7% / 45.3% |
6.7 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
17.6% / 54.8% |
24.8 / 27.3 |
4 |
NYG |
25 – 23 W |
5.2 |
48.7% / 49.0% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 5.9 |
42.3% / 35.7% |
19.2% / 28.6% |
4.3 / 3.3 |
65 / 77 |
56.3% / 44.1% |
46.2% / 44.2% |
57.3% / 27.4% |
6.7 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 36.4% |
29.9 / 27.7 |
5 |
NE |
14 – 19 L |
-4.4 |
48.9% / 51.2% |
4.3% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
6.8 / 6.7 |
55.0% / 47.8% |
20.0% / 17.4% |
4.5 / 4.9 |
67 / 66 |
55.6% / 53.7% |
50.7% / 50.0% |
37.2% / 24.6% |
6.1 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
29.9% / 34.8% |
27.4 / 27.7 |
6 |
@ARI |
33 – 38 L |
-18.1 |
53.5% / 62.5% |
2.3% / 8.3% |
4.8% / 4.5% |
8.0 / 11.3 |
23.8% / 38.5% |
38.1% / 20.5% |
3.2 / 4.2 |
64 / 63 |
40.4% / 56.5% |
43.8% / 47.6% |
51.9% / 53.0% |
6.5 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
32.8% / 61.9% |
28.3 / 33.4 |
7 |
@BUF |
27 – 30 L |
-2.0 |
64.4% / 44.1% |
2.2% / 2.9% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
8.4 / 7.7 |
32.0% / 42.4% |
20.0% / 27.3% |
2.8 / 5.2 |
70 / 67 |
52.5% / 37.3% |
52.9% / 43.3% |
26.4% / 65.0% |
6.4 / 6.5 |
2.9% / 1.5% |
35.7% / 49.3% |
27.0 / 33.7 |
8 |
CAR |
3 – 17 L |
-7.2 |
36.6% / 37.5% |
7.3% / 0.0% |
5.3% / 3.1% |
4.7 / 4.8 |
45.5% / 45.5% |
31.8% / 24.2% |
3.9 / 3.1 |
63 / 65 |
46.0% / 43.2% |
39.7% / 41.5% |
19.4% / 30.5% |
4.4 / 3.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
34.9% / 50.8% |
23.2 / 30.6 |
9 |
@NO |
10 – 30 L |
-15.2 |
37.5% / 67.9% |
12.5% / 3.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.5 / 9.1 |
44.0% / 41.7% |
24.0% / 8.3% |
3.5 / 4.3 |
57 / 64 |
43.2% / 57.8% |
40.4% / 53.1% |
13.0% / 49.3% |
3.5 / 6.4 |
1.8% / 3.1% |
43.9% / 56.3% |
31.5 / 26.6 |
10 |
NYJ |
15 – 10 W |
3.4 |
40.0% / 28.9% |
2.9% / 13.3% |
2.9% / 2.6% |
5.2 / 4.9 |
28.1% / 21.1% |
28.1% / 42.1% |
2.8 / 2.9 |
67 / 64 |
32.7% / 27.7% |
34.3% / 26.6% |
23.2% / 46.2% |
4.1 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
47.8% / 29.7% |
36.0 / 19.0 |
11 |
@MIA |
30 – 20 W |
5.1 |
39.5% / 46.3% |
2.6% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 7.5% |
7.1 / 8.9 |
20.8% / 15.8% |
41.7% / 57.9% |
2.2 / 4.4 |
62 / 60 |
34.7% / 34.8% |
32.3% / 36.7% |
42.4% / 61.2% |
5.2 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
38.7% / 31.7% |
35.9 / 25.2 |
12 |
@ATL |
20 – 34 L |
-8.2 |
51.1% / 60.0% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.2 / 10.5 |
56.5% / 60.7% |
17.4% / 14.3% |
4.1 / 5.3 |
68 / 63 |
56.4% / 55.1% |
52.9% / 60.3% |
18.8% / 61.4% |
5.5 / 8.2 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
33.8% / 44.4% |
25.0 / 26.3 |
13 |
@GB |
20 – 26 L |
-1.6 |
43.6% / 33.3% |
17.9% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 4.5% |
5.9 / 3.2 |
48.6% / 60.0% |
17.1% / 13.3% |
4.7 / 6.7 |
74 / 54 |
43.1% / 52.5% |
45.9% / 48.1% |
34.7% / 40.1% |
5.3 / 5.1 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
47.3% / 55.6% |
25.3 / 28.5 |
14 |
DET |
21 – 24 L |
-4.8 |
58.5% / 61.4% |
7.3% / 0.0% |
5.3% / 4.5% |
6.5 / 8.7 |
62.1% / 33.3% |
13.8% / 38.9% |
4.6 / 2.9 |
70 / 62 |
63.3% / 54.9% |
60.0% / 53.2% |
25.4% / 34.8% |
5.7 / 7.0 |
4.3% / 1.6% |
41.4% / 29.0% |
22.2 / 30.4 |
15 |
ATL |
21 – 24 L |
-5.0 |
60.0% / 43.8% |
5.7% / 3.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 6.5 |
66.7% / 57.1% |
22.2% / 17.1% |
4.7 / 5.7 |
53 / 67 |
64.4% / 48.1% |
62.3% / 50.7% |
29.0% / 48.8% |
7.0 / 6.1 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
34.0% / 52.2% |
26.3 / 23.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@SF |
23 – 3 W |
12.4 |
45.8% / 46.2% |
0.0% / 10.3% |
4.2% / 2.9% |
7.1 / 4.3 |
39.0% / 26.7% |
14.6% / 26.7% |
2.9 / 3.4 |
65 / 54 |
42.6% / 48.7% |
41.5% / 40.7% |
29.7% / 33.6% |
4.5 / 4.0 |
1.5% / 1.9% |
63.1% / 27.8% |
33.7 / 30.1 |
2 |
BUF |
9 – 3 W |
4.0 |
50.0% / 35.7% |
15.8% / 10.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 3.8 |
34.5% / 21.7% |
37.9% / 39.1% |
2.7 / 3.0 |
67 / 51 |
44.9% / 30.6% |
43.3% / 29.4% |
39.1% / 20.5% |
3.8 / 3.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.3% / 45.1% |
31.3 / 21.1 |
3 |
NO |
13 – 34 L |
-8.6 |
43.2% / 46.7% |
10.8% / 3.3% |
9.1% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 7.1 |
77.3% / 55.6% |
4.5% / 25.9% |
6.0 / 5.5 |
59 / 57 |
57.8% / 51.1% |
55.9% / 50.9% |
40.3% / 55.5% |
4.9 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.3% / 47.4% |
25.2 / 37.8 |
4 |
@NE |
33 – 30 W |
1.9 |
61.3% / 60.4% |
6.5% / 6.3% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
9.8 / 6.1 |
51.7% / 73.7% |
20.7% / 21.1% |
4.8 / 4.2 |
60 / 67 |
54.9% / 66.7% |
56.7% / 64.2% |
48.0% / 22.0% |
7.4 / 5.6 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
48.3% / 28.4% |
26.7 / 26.1 |
5 |
@DET |
27 – 24 W |
6.3 |
50.0% / 51.2% |
8.3% / 14.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.3 / 4.7 |
17.6% / 40.0% |
32.4% / 40.0% |
0.9 / 3.3 |
70 / 56 |
37.0% / 52.4% |
34.3% / 48.2% |
53.7% / 53.7% |
5.2 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
48.6% / 26.8% |
31.7 / 29.8 |
6 |
PHI |
23 – 28 L |
-3.0 |
37.0% / 39.4% |
3.7% / 9.1% |
5.8% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 6.3 |
48.0% / 37.9% |
40.0% / 27.6% |
3.2 / 3.6 |
79 / 62 |
45.0% / 41.9% |
40.5% / 38.7% |
20.7% / 54.2% |
3.9 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
31.6% / 46.8% |
30.0 / 32.9 |
7 |
@CHI |
3 – 17 L |
-11.4 |
41.0% / 18.2% |
12.8% / 36.4% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 7.7 |
33.3% / 32.3% |
33.3% / 16.1% |
3.6 / 2.3 |
69 / 42 |
37.7% / 41.7% |
37.7% / 28.6% |
49.8% / 67.3% |
4.2 / 3.7 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
43.5% / 73.8% |
24.6 / 28.7 |
8 |
@TB |
17 – 3 W |
7.2 |
37.5% / 36.6% |
0.0% / 7.3% |
3.1% / 5.3% |
4.8 / 4.7 |
45.5% / 45.5% |
24.2% / 31.8% |
3.1 / 3.9 |
65 / 63 |
43.2% / 46.0% |
41.5% / 39.7% |
30.5% / 19.4% |
3.9 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
50.8% / 34.9% |
30.6 / 23.2 |
9 |
ATL |
20 – 17 W |
0.4 |
40.0% / 47.5% |
4.0% / 5.0% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
5.2 / 7.6 |
50.0% / 36.8% |
21.1% / 26.3% |
5.3 / 2.8 |
63 / 59 |
50.0% / 52.4% |
46.0% / 44.1% |
43.3% / 39.6% |
5.2 / 6.0 |
3.2% / 0.0% |
60.3% / 32.2% |
35.8 / 20.5 |
10 |
MIA |
45 – 21 W |
12.9 |
60.0% / 48.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
7.3 / 5.8 |
52.6% / 27.8% |
18.4% / 22.2% |
7.8 / 5.6 |
73 / 55 |
54.5% / 40.0% |
56.2% / 41.8% |
57.3% / 38.9% |
7.5 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
52.1% / 32.7% |
30.1 / 21.9 |
12 |
@NYJ |
35 – 27 W |
3.0 |
29.0% / 48.6% |
9.7% / 8.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 7.6 |
39.4% / 38.5% |
36.4% / 26.9% |
4.4 / 4.2 |
64 / 63 |
36.7% / 46.9% |
34.4% / 44.4% |
50.5% / 54.5% |
4.7 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
51.6% / 41.3% |
25.3 / 27.7 |
13 |
@NO |
21 – 31 L |
-8.7 |
40.0% / 41.7% |
6.7% / 5.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 7.0 |
52.2% / 31.3% |
17.4% / 28.1% |
4.9 / 4.7 |
53 / 68 |
51.2% / 39.1% |
45.3% / 36.8% |
38.4% / 57.6% |
5.3 / 5.9 |
1.9% / 1.5% |
43.4% / 47.1% |
27.8 / 32.1 |
14 |
MIN |
31 – 24 W |
5.9 |
29.6% / 44.0% |
7.4% / 12.0% |
4.0% / 4.5% |
4.8 / 5.1 |
41.5% / 52.4% |
19.5% / 23.8% |
5.3 / 4.8 |
68 / 71 |
43.5% / 47.3% |
36.8% / 46.5% |
47.4% / 36.2% |
5.1 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
60.3% / 29.6% |
33.2 / 31.7 |
15 |
GB |
31 – 24 W |
5.5 |
56.3% / 46.8% |
3.1% / 6.4% |
0.0% / 6.8% |
7.4 / 5.6 |
45.2% / 63.2% |
14.3% / 10.5% |
3.7 / 6.3 |
74 / 66 |
55.4% / 53.8% |
50.0% / 51.5% |
38.7% / 44.5% |
5.3 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
56.8% / 28.8% |
27.7 / 28.8 |