Game Analysis
Lean – Tampa Bay (+7.5) over BALTIMORE
Lamar Jackson is throwing for just 5.7 yards per pass play with a 3% interception rate and our numbers suggest the Ravens would still be about a point better with Joe Flacco under center in a neutral matchup, but we haven’t seen one yet. Baltimore has been able to mask Jackson’s deficiencies in the passing game because they’ve played 4 of the bottom 5 rush defenses in the league (Cincinnati, Oakland, Atlanta, and Kansas City). The only bottom 5 rush defense left to play is Tampa Bay, who they coincidentally host this week, so I expect Jackson to do enough again.
The Buccaneers target wide receivers on two-thirds of their passes, the 3rd-highest rate in the league, and they are targeting them even more since stud tight end O.J. Howard was lost for the season, which plays right to Baltimore’s strengths. The Ravens have some of the best cornerbacks in the NFL and are limiting opposing wide receivers to 6.4 yards per target, significantly lower than the league average of 8.2 yards per target. Furthermore, Jameis Winston may not have DeSean Jackson in the lineup again and he’ll have to keep an eye out for Za’Darius Smith and Matthew Judon, who are tied for 11th among edge defenders in pass rushing efficiency. I expect Demar Dotson, 7th in pass blocking efficiency, to limit one of the two, but Donovan Smith will likely have problems on the other side if he doesn’t get help.
Our model favors Baltimore by 9 points but Tampa Bay gets my highest technical analysis rating of the week. The Ravens apply to a negative 26-88-1 ATS home favorite situation and a 78-184-4 ATS situation that combine to go 1-22-1 ATS when both apply to the same team. Baltimore was in an epic overtime battle with Kansas City last week and my not have anything left in their emotional tank for this week’s game against a team that they surely expect to beat. I’ll lean with Tampa Bay based on the situation.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.5
36.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.3%
52.3%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
7.6%
-
Int Rate
4.4%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
24.1%
20.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.1%
42.0%
-
NYPP
8.1
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.5
25.9
-
RB YPR
3.5
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
25.1%
24.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.7%
49.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.8%
59.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.7
Game
-
All Snaps
68.0
62.3
-
Early Down Succ
48.3%
55.7%
-
Succ Rate
47.9%
50.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.1%
48.1%
-
Yards Per Play
6.4
6.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
28.5
-
Run Ratio
37.7%
42.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.5
28.1
-
Game Control
-3.1
3.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
37.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.5%
43.4%
-
Sack Rate
5.4%
9.0%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.1%
18.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.6%
35.1%
-
NYPP
6.4
5.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
33.2
23.8
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
20.7%
26.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.4%
39.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.3%
39.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
70.2
61.7
-
Early Down Succ
50.6%
43.8%
-
Succ Rate
50.2%
41.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.0%
37.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
4.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
28.6
-
Run Ratio
46.5%
38.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.6
28.1
-
Game Control
2.2
-2.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NO |
48 – 40 W |
7.4 |
64.3% / 73.9% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
14.9 / 9.4 |
43.2% / 69.2% |
18.9% / 23.1% |
3.1 / 3.3 |
65 / 59 |
56.5% / 77.6% |
52.3% / 72.9% |
62.7% / 36.4% |
8.2 / 8.1 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
56.9% / 22.0% |
26.4 / 25.9 |
2 |
PHI |
27 – 21 W |
11.1 |
60.0% / 42.0% |
5.7% / 6.0% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
11.2 / 6.4 |
25.0% / 54.2% |
41.7% / 20.8% |
1.8 / 3.8 |
59 / 74 |
48.9% / 48.1% |
45.8% / 45.9% |
45.3% / 36.2% |
7.4 / 5.6 |
1.7% / 2.7% |
40.7% / 32.4% |
27.2 / 25.5 |
3 |
PIT |
27 – 30 L |
-9.7 |
45.3% / 51.2% |
5.7% / 7.3% |
6.0% / 2.6% |
7.4 / 8.2 |
47.1% / 36.0% |
17.6% / 28.0% |
3.8 / 3.2 |
70 / 66 |
48.3% / 54.0% |
45.7% / 45.5% |
43.6% / 45.4% |
6.5 / 6.3 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
24.3% / 37.9% |
25.2 / 28.0 |
4 |
@CHI |
10 – 48 L |
-27.7 |
45.2% / 66.7% |
9.5% / 3.7% |
7.9% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 12.7 |
38.9% / 51.5% |
22.2% / 27.3% |
3.3 / 4.3 |
60 / 60 |
45.7% / 64.6% |
43.3% / 58.3% |
32.8% / 72.6% |
5.2 / 8.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.0% / 55.0% |
23.8 / 27.5 |
6 |
@ATL |
29 – 34 L |
-6.3 |
61.9% / 57.1% |
4.8% / 2.4% |
5.0% / 0.0% |
9.3 / 8.2 |
55.0% / 40.9% |
25.0% / 36.4% |
6.2 / 3.2 |
62 / 64 |
59.3% / 49.0% |
59.7% / 51.6% |
32.8% / 40.9% |
8.3 / 6.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.3% / 34.4% |
28.6 / 21.9 |
7 |
CLE |
26 – 23 W |
6.5 |
51.8% / 38.5% |
7.1% / 12.8% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 4.8 |
42.4% / 39.1% |
30.3% / 30.4% |
3.5 / 5.2 |
89 / 62 |
49.3% / 45.7% |
48.3% / 38.7% |
35.4% / 41.0% |
5.1 / 4.9 |
2.2% / 1.6% |
37.1% / 37.1% |
21.3 / 37.6 |
8 |
@CIN |
34 – 37 L |
-10.5 |
41.1% / 48.6% |
10.7% / 5.7% |
8.0% / 0.0% |
8.0 / 7.5 |
51.9% / 42.9% |
11.1% / 28.6% |
4.7 / 5.0 |
83 / 63 |
39.7% / 50.0% |
44.6% / 46.0% |
49.0% / 54.6% |
6.9 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.5% / 44.4% |
24.5 / 29.5 |
9 |
@CAR |
28 – 42 L |
-14.2 |
47.7% / 55.6% |
6.8% / 7.4% |
4.9% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 8.4 |
23.8% / 48.6% |
23.8% / 11.4% |
3.9 / 5.2 |
65 / 62 |
39.2% / 62.2% |
40.0% / 51.6% |
49.5% / 56.0% |
4.6 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.3% / 56.5% |
24.6 / 34.8 |
10 |
WAS |
3 – 16 L |
-4.7 |
62.8% / 40.0% |
4.7% / 10.0% |
4.9% / 0.0% |
9.3 / 5.7 |
45.8% / 56.0% |
25.0% / 32.0% |
4.3 / 4.6 |
67 / 55 |
56.1% / 50.0% |
56.7% / 47.3% |
36.5% / 39.9% |
7.5 / 5.2 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
35.8% / 45.5% |
19.0 / 29.7 |
11 |
@NYG |
35 – 38 L |
-10.5 |
55.3% / 54.5% |
2.6% / 18.2% |
10.8% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 8.9 |
56.7% / 59.4% |
20.0% / 9.4% |
5.0 / 5.1 |
68 / 54 |
54.4% / 62.8% |
55.9% / 57.4% |
55.5% / 59.4% |
7.5 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.1% / 59.3% |
24.6 / 28.5 |
12 |
SF |
27 – 9 W |
8.9 |
56.4% / 44.4% |
2.6% / 11.1% |
0.0% / 6.3% |
7.8 / 5.4 |
33.3% / 48.0% |
24.2% / 24.0% |
3.3 / 6.0 |
72 / 61 |
47.3% / 52.9% |
45.8% / 45.9% |
39.6% / 58.3% |
5.8 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.8% / 41.0% |
22.1 / 20.6 |
13 |
CAR |
24 – 17 W |
6.2 |
50.0% / 47.8% |
11.8% / 8.7% |
0.0% / 9.5% |
6.5 / 6.0 |
36.0% / 55.0% |
40.0% / 15.0% |
3.8 / 8.5 |
59 / 66 |
43.5% / 54.5% |
44.1% / 50.0% |
41.6% / 54.2% |
5.3 / 6.7 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
42.4% / 30.3% |
35.2 / 21.3 |
14 |
NO |
14 – 28 L |
3.3 |
38.1% / 59.4% |
9.5% / 3.1% |
2.6% / 3.2% |
4.1 / 6.2 |
43.5% / 40.6% |
26.1% / 28.1% |
4.6 / 3.2 |
65 / 64 |
39.2% / 53.2% |
40.0% / 50.0% |
36.2% / 30.7% |
4.3 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
35.4% / 50.0% |
29.5 / 34.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
BUF |
47 – 3 W |
25.9 |
42.5% / 20.5% |
5.0% / 15.4% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
6.3 / 1.8 |
44.1% / 22.7% |
29.4% / 31.8% |
3.4 / 3.8 |
74 / 61 |
43.3% / 24.4% |
43.2% / 21.3% |
43.1% / 39.9% |
5.0 / 2.5 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
45.9% / 36.1% |
41.3 / 30.5 |
2 |
@CIN |
23 – 34 L |
-11.8 |
49.1% / 45.2% |
7.0% / 0.0% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 6.3 |
50.0% / 42.9% |
18.2% / 28.6% |
3.0 / 3.9 |
79 / 70 |
50.0% / 45.6% |
49.4% / 44.3% |
35.5% / 43.7% |
5.4 / 5.3 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
27.8% / 40.0% |
22.6 / 36.3 |
3 |
DEN |
27 – 14 W |
4.7 |
48.8% / 45.9% |
4.9% / 8.1% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
6.5 / 4.7 |
32.3% / 45.8% |
19.4% / 33.3% |
2.6 / 5.0 |
72 / 61 |
43.1% / 47.8% |
41.7% / 45.9% |
33.9% / 39.9% |
4.8 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.1% / 39.3% |
27.2 / 33.4 |
4 |
@PIT |
26 – 14 W |
6.3 |
47.7% / 47.9% |
4.5% / 2.1% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
8.1 / 5.5 |
48.5% / 16.7% |
9.1% / 25.0% |
3.0 / 1.7 |
77 / 60 |
51.9% / 50.0% |
48.1% / 41.7% |
32.7% / 42.1% |
5.9 / 4.8 |
1.3% / 1.7% |
42.9% / 20.0% |
36.8 / 21.2 |
5 |
@CLE |
9 – 12 L |
-0.7 |
80.6% / 62.1% |
6.5% / 17.2% |
3.4% / 4.2% |
9.5 / 10.5 |
48.0% / 46.4% |
32.0% / 35.7% |
4.6 / 4.0 |
56 / 57 |
47.8% / 45.5% |
66.1% / 54.4% |
35.1% / 57.7% |
7.3 / 7.3 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
44.6% / 49.1% |
31.4 / 19.7 |
6 |
@TEN |
21 – 0 W |
13.2 |
45.9% / 26.9% |
0.0% / 42.3% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 2.0 |
44.4% / 28.6% |
27.8% / 35.7% |
3.4 / 3.9 |
73 / 40 |
37.7% / 33.3% |
45.2% / 27.5% |
44.5% / 42.5% |
5.0 / 2.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 35.0% |
29.9 / 21.9 |
7 |
NO |
23 – 24 L |
1.7 |
46.3% / 45.2% |
2.4% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 6.6 |
52.2% / 50.0% |
30.4% / 12.5% |
3.3 / 3.4 |
64 / 71 |
50.0% / 48.0% |
48.4% / 47.9% |
19.7% / 31.2% |
5.5 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
35.9% / 56.3% |
21.8 / 27.6 |
8 |
@CAR |
21 – 36 L |
-10.2 |
45.7% / 60.0% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
4.5% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 7.7 |
77.8% / 31.4% |
16.7% / 20.0% |
5.6 / 4.5 |
64 / 65 |
56.0% / 47.9% |
54.7% / 44.6% |
26.2% / 26.3% |
5.1 / 6.0 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
28.1% / 53.8% |
23.0 / 37.5 |
9 |
PIT |
16 – 23 L |
-6.1 |
37.5% / 51.0% |
5.0% / 2.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 5.8 |
50.0% / 48.1% |
37.5% / 14.8% |
3.8 / 4.2 |
56 / 76 |
44.2% / 45.8% |
41.1% / 50.0% |
47.8% / 27.8% |
4.8 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.6% / 35.5% |
26.0 / 23.8 |
11 |
CIN |
24 – 21 W |
1.3 |
52.4% / 39.5% |
9.5% / 2.6% |
5.3% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 5.4 |
47.4% / 37.5% |
15.8% / 31.3% |
4.7 / 3.0 |
78 / 54 |
53.6% / 38.5% |
48.7% / 38.9% |
33.7% / 56.5% |
5.2 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
73.1% / 29.6% |
31.6 / 31.5 |
12 |
OAK |
34 – 17 W |
3.9 |
42.3% / 29.7% |
3.8% / 8.1% |
8.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 4.9 |
68.9% / 47.6% |
11.1% / 19.0% |
5.4 / 3.3 |
71 / 58 |
63.0% / 42.5% |
59.2% / 36.2% |
60.8% / 44.2% |
5.9 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
63.4% / 36.2% |
24.8 / 25.5 |
13 |
@ATL |
26 – 16 W |
2.5 |
50.0% / 36.7% |
7.1% / 10.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 3.2 |
61.5% / 37.5% |
11.5% / 31.3% |
4.0 / 2.2 |
80 / 46 |
63.8% / 44.1% |
57.5% / 37.0% |
29.3% / 8.3% |
4.6 / 2.9 |
1.3% / 2.2% |
65.0% / 34.8% |
25.9 / 25.6 |
14 |
@KC |
24 – 27 L |
-1.6 |
41.4% / 53.6% |
10.3% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 1.9% |
4.2 / 6.2 |
56.4% / 55.6% |
10.3% / 25.9% |
5.1 / 3.5 |
68 / 83 |
52.8% / 55.6% |
50.0% / 54.2% |
25.5% / 28.3% |
4.7 / 5.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
57.4% / 32.5% |
29.8 / 30.2 |