Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Dec 16
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 311
Odds: Baltimore Ravens -7.5, Total: 46.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Tampa Bay (+7.5) over BALTIMORE

Lamar Jackson is throwing for just 5.7 yards per pass play with a 3% interception rate and our numbers suggest the Ravens would still be about a point better with Joe Flacco under center in a neutral matchup, but we haven’t seen one yet. Baltimore has been able to mask Jackson’s deficiencies in the passing game because they’ve played 4 of the bottom 5 rush defenses in the league (Cincinnati, Oakland, Atlanta, and Kansas City). The only bottom 5 rush defense left to play is Tampa Bay, who they coincidentally host this week, so I expect Jackson to do enough again.

The Buccaneers target wide receivers on two-thirds of their passes, the 3rd-highest rate in the league, and they are targeting them even more since stud tight end O.J. Howard was lost for the season, which plays right to Baltimore’s strengths. The Ravens have some of the best cornerbacks in the NFL and are limiting opposing wide receivers to 6.4 yards per target, significantly lower than the league average of 8.2 yards per target. Furthermore, Jameis Winston may not have DeSean Jackson in the lineup again and he’ll have to keep an eye out for Za’Darius Smith and Matthew Judon, who are tied for 11th among edge defenders in pass rushing efficiency. I expect Demar Dotson, 7th in pass blocking efficiency, to limit one of the two, but Donovan Smith will likely have problems on the other side if he doesn’t get help.

Our model favors Baltimore by 9 points but Tampa Bay gets my highest technical analysis rating of the week. The Ravens apply to a negative 26-88-1 ATS home favorite situation and a 78-184-4 ATS situation that combine to go 1-22-1 ATS when both apply to the same team. Baltimore was in an epic overtime battle with Kansas City last week and my not have anything left in their emotional tank for this week’s game against a team that they surely expect to beat. I’ll lean with Tampa Bay based on the situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Buccaneers
  • Ravens
TB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 42.5 36.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 52.3% 52.3%
  • Sack Rate 6.3% 7.6%
  • Int Rate 4.4% 1.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 24.1% 20.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 42.1% 42.0%
  • NYPP 8.1 7.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.5 25.9
  • RB YPR 3.5 4.5
  • Stuff Rate 25.1% 24.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.7% 49.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 42.8% 59.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 4.7




Game

  • All Snaps 68.0 62.3
  • Early Down Succ 48.3% 55.7%
  • Succ Rate 47.9% 50.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.1% 48.1%
  • Yards Per Play 6.4 6.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.5 28.5
  • Run Ratio 37.7% 42.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 25.5 28.1
  • Game Control -3.1 3.1
 
  • Points 25.5 29.5
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