Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Nov 26
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 259
Odds: Atlanta Falcons -10, Total: 48.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Tampa Bay (+10) over ATLANTA

Lean – Under (48.5)

Ryan Fitzpatrick has won both games he’s started but the Buccaneers are averaging just 4.6 yards per play during the last two weeks. Teams have been able to key against the run as Tampa Bay has gained just 2.6 yards per rush in Fitzpatrick’s two starts. One of Fitzpatrick’s favorite targets, Mike Evans, has a tough matchup against Desmond Trufant, 10th among corners in yards allowed per cover snap, and I expect the Buccaneers offensive woes to continue against a Falcons defense ranked 11th in compensated yards per play allowed.

Atlanta’s offense should be able to move the ball against a Tampa Bay defense surrendering 6.1 yppl (29th) but as they take control of the game I expect the Falcons to run the football and keep the clock moving as they look ahead to pivotal games against the Vikings and Saints in the next two weeks.

The line is a bit high here, as I think it should be 8 points, so I’ll lean slightly with Tampa Bay at +10 points or more and the model also leans with the Under at 48 or higher.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons
TB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.5 37.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.5% 50.8%
  • Sack Rate 4.7% 4.0%
  • Int Rate 2.3% 2.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 23.4% 20.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 28.1% 38.7%
  • NYPP 6.5 7.7



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.0 28.6
  • RB YPR 3.2 3.5
  • Stuff Rate 24.5% 28.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 37.2% 35.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 31.6% 45.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.3 3.7




Game

  • All Snaps 63.5 66.1
  • Early Down Succ 46.2% 45.8%
  • Succ Rate 43.7% 44.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 30.2% 40.9%
  • Yards Per Play 5.4 5.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 1.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.4 28.1
  • Run Ratio 37.3% 43.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.5 27.8
  • Game Control -2.8 2.8
 
  • Points 20.3 22.8
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