Game Analysis
Lean – Tampa Bay (+10) over ATLANTA
Lean – Under (48.5)
Ryan Fitzpatrick has won both games he’s started but the Buccaneers are averaging just 4.6 yards per play during the last two weeks. Teams have been able to key against the run as Tampa Bay has gained just 2.6 yards per rush in Fitzpatrick’s two starts. One of Fitzpatrick’s favorite targets, Mike Evans, has a tough matchup against Desmond Trufant, 10th among corners in yards allowed per cover snap, and I expect the Buccaneers offensive woes to continue against a Falcons defense ranked 11th in compensated yards per play allowed.
Atlanta’s offense should be able to move the ball against a Tampa Bay defense surrendering 6.1 yppl (29th) but as they take control of the game I expect the Falcons to run the football and keep the clock moving as they look ahead to pivotal games against the Vikings and Saints in the next two weeks.
The line is a bit high here, as I think it should be 8 points, so I’ll lean slightly with Tampa Bay at +10 points or more and the model also leans with the Under at 48 or higher.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.5
37.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.5%
50.8%
-
Sack Rate
4.7%
4.0%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.4%
20.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
28.1%
38.7%
-
NYPP
6.5
7.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.0
28.6
-
RB YPR
3.2
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
24.5%
28.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.2%
35.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
31.6%
45.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.3
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
63.5
66.1
-
Early Down Succ
46.2%
45.8%
-
Succ Rate
43.7%
44.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
30.2%
40.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.4
28.1
-
Run Ratio
37.3%
43.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.5
27.8
-
Game Control
-2.8
2.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.1
37.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.2%
44.1%
-
Sack Rate
4.7%
7.9%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
0.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.5%
15.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.5%
31.5%
-
NYPP
7.2
5.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.8
26.8
-
RB YPR
4.1
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
26.5%
23.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.4%
47.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
49.1%
41.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
60.9
64.1
-
Early Down Succ
50.6%
47.8%
-
Succ Rate
47.9%
45.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.0%
36.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
28.9
-
Run Ratio
43.9%
41.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.1
30.3
-
Game Control
2.7
-2.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
2 |
CHI |
29 – 7 W |
18.1 |
48.5% / 56.5% |
6.1% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 4.4% |
5.9 / 6.3 |
36.1% / 25.0% |
11.1% / 43.8% |
3.3 / 1.3 |
69 / 62 |
41.2% / 50.0% |
42.0% / 48.4% |
14.4% / 6.5% |
4.5 / 5.0 |
1.4% / 3.2% |
52.2% / 25.8% |
31.1 / 27.0 |
3 |
@MIN |
17 – 34 L |
-13.1 |
57.1% / 63.6% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 11.2 |
44.4% / 37.5% |
11.1% / 12.5% |
2.9 / 3.2 |
51 / 73 |
60.0% / 52.7% |
54.9% / 49.3% |
16.7% / 45.3% |
6.7 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
17.6% / 54.8% |
24.8 / 27.3 |
4 |
NYG |
25 – 23 W |
5.2 |
48.7% / 49.0% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 5.9 |
42.3% / 35.7% |
19.2% / 28.6% |
4.3 / 3.3 |
65 / 77 |
56.3% / 44.1% |
46.2% / 44.2% |
57.3% / 27.4% |
6.7 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 36.4% |
29.9 / 27.7 |
5 |
NE |
14 – 19 L |
-4.4 |
48.9% / 51.2% |
4.3% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
6.8 / 6.7 |
55.0% / 47.8% |
20.0% / 17.4% |
4.5 / 4.9 |
67 / 66 |
55.6% / 53.7% |
50.7% / 50.0% |
37.2% / 24.6% |
6.1 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
29.9% / 34.8% |
27.4 / 27.7 |
6 |
@ARI |
33 – 38 L |
-18.1 |
53.5% / 62.5% |
2.3% / 8.3% |
4.8% / 4.5% |
8.0 / 11.3 |
23.8% / 38.5% |
38.1% / 20.5% |
3.2 / 4.2 |
64 / 63 |
40.4% / 56.5% |
43.8% / 47.6% |
51.9% / 53.0% |
6.5 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
32.8% / 61.9% |
28.3 / 33.4 |
7 |
@BUF |
27 – 30 L |
-2.0 |
64.4% / 44.1% |
2.2% / 2.9% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
8.4 / 7.7 |
32.0% / 42.4% |
20.0% / 27.3% |
2.8 / 5.2 |
70 / 67 |
52.5% / 37.3% |
52.9% / 43.3% |
26.4% / 65.0% |
6.4 / 6.5 |
2.9% / 1.5% |
35.7% / 49.3% |
27.0 / 33.7 |
8 |
CAR |
3 – 17 L |
-7.2 |
36.6% / 37.5% |
7.3% / 0.0% |
5.3% / 3.1% |
4.7 / 4.8 |
45.5% / 45.5% |
31.8% / 24.2% |
3.9 / 3.1 |
63 / 65 |
46.0% / 43.2% |
39.7% / 41.5% |
19.4% / 30.5% |
4.4 / 3.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
34.9% / 50.8% |
23.2 / 30.6 |
9 |
@NO |
10 – 30 L |
-15.2 |
37.5% / 67.9% |
12.5% / 3.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.5 / 9.1 |
44.0% / 41.7% |
24.0% / 8.3% |
3.5 / 4.3 |
57 / 64 |
43.2% / 57.8% |
40.4% / 53.1% |
13.0% / 49.3% |
3.5 / 6.4 |
1.8% / 3.1% |
43.9% / 56.3% |
31.5 / 26.6 |
10 |
NYJ |
15 – 10 W |
3.4 |
40.0% / 28.9% |
2.9% / 13.3% |
2.9% / 2.6% |
5.2 / 4.9 |
28.1% / 21.1% |
28.1% / 42.1% |
2.8 / 2.9 |
67 / 64 |
32.7% / 27.7% |
34.3% / 26.6% |
23.2% / 46.2% |
4.1 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
47.8% / 29.7% |
36.0 / 19.0 |
11 |
@MIA |
30 – 20 W |
5.1 |
39.5% / 46.3% |
2.6% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 7.5% |
7.1 / 8.9 |
20.8% / 15.8% |
41.7% / 57.9% |
2.2 / 4.4 |
62 / 60 |
34.7% / 34.8% |
32.3% / 36.7% |
42.4% / 61.2% |
5.2 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
38.7% / 31.7% |
35.9 / 25.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@CHI |
23 – 17 W |
2.5 |
50.0% / 31.8% |
6.3% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.6 / 4.0 |
32.0% / 52.6% |
24.0% / 15.8% |
2.6 / 6.6 |
57 / 63 |
45.2% / 37.5% |
42.1% / 38.1% |
49.7% / 31.2% |
6.6 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.9% / 30.2% |
18.3 / 28.1 |
2 |
GB |
34 – 23 W |
12.4 |
51.6% / 50.9% |
9.7% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
7.2 / 5.8 |
55.6% / 56.3% |
18.5% / 25.0% |
5.2 / 3.8 |
58 / 69 |
55.3% / 53.8% |
53.4% / 52.2% |
50.0% / 24.2% |
6.3 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
46.6% / 23.2% |
26.7 / 22.1 |
3 |
@DET |
30 – 26 W |
6.3 |
48.6% / 40.4% |
5.4% / 4.3% |
8.6% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 5.4 |
48.3% / 31.6% |
13.8% / 26.3% |
5.2 / 3.7 |
66 / 66 |
50.9% / 41.5% |
48.5% / 37.9% |
34.7% / 31.8% |
6.5 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.9% / 28.8% |
27.8 / 29.7 |
4 |
BUF |
17 – 23 L |
-2.0 |
48.8% / 43.5% |
2.3% / 13.0% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 7.1 |
58.6% / 44.7% |
27.6% / 23.7% |
5.1 / 3.1 |
72 / 61 |
56.1% / 47.7% |
52.8% / 44.3% |
30.9% / 27.6% |
5.4 / 4.6 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
40.3% / 62.3% |
25.9 / 21.9 |
6 |
MIA |
17 – 20 L |
7.7 |
50.0% / 45.5% |
5.6% / 0.0% |
2.9% / 3.0% |
6.6 / 4.6 |
47.4% / 46.9% |
42.1% / 25.0% |
5.3 / 4.3 |
55 / 65 |
48.8% / 47.9% |
49.1% / 46.2% |
40.1% / 23.8% |
6.2 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.5% / 49.2% |
20.7 / 30.2 |
7 |
@NE |
7 – 23 L |
-11.4 |
58.8% / 48.4% |
2.9% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 7.8 |
54.5% / 56.4% |
18.2% / 12.8% |
5.5 / 4.2 |
56 / 70 |
65.9% / 57.7% |
57.1% / 52.9% |
26.8% / 38.4% |
6.1 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.3% / 55.7% |
21.9 / 28.8 |
8 |
@NYJ |
25 – 20 W |
-1.1 |
50.0% / 51.4% |
3.3% / 8.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 6.7 |
37.5% / 22.7% |
28.1% / 36.4% |
4.4 / 2.0 |
62 / 57 |
45.8% / 41.5% |
43.5% / 40.4% |
53.1% / 40.1% |
6.2 / 4.9 |
3.2% / 1.8% |
51.6% / 38.6% |
26.1 / 36.9 |
9 |
@CAR |
17 – 20 L |
-0.4 |
47.5% / 40.0% |
5.0% / 4.0% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
7.6 / 5.2 |
36.8% / 50.0% |
26.3% / 21.1% |
2.8 / 5.3 |
59 / 63 |
52.4% / 50.0% |
44.1% / 46.0% |
39.6% / 43.3% |
6.0 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 3.2% |
32.2% / 60.3% |
20.5 / 35.8 |
10 |
DAL |
27 – 7 W |
4.8 |
63.3% / 40.5% |
3.3% / 21.6% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 3.4 |
29.4% / 45.5% |
44.1% / 22.7% |
3.9 / 4.9 |
64 / 59 |
44.9% / 42.6% |
45.3% / 42.4% |
46.7% / 55.4% |
5.3 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
53.1% / 37.3% |
29.9 / 33.3 |
11 |
@SEA |
34 – 31 W |
8.5 |
53.6% / 48.9% |
3.6% / 6.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
6.8 / 5.0 |
34.4% / 65.2% |
21.9% / 21.7% |
2.8 / 5.9 |
60 / 68 |
40.5% / 57.4% |
43.3% / 54.4% |
37.7% / 46.7% |
4.7 / 5.3 |
1.7% / 1.5% |
53.3% / 33.8% |
33.0 / 36.4 |