Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Oct 15
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 267
Odds: Arizona Cardinals +1.5, Total: 45

Game Analysis

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Lean – ARIZONA (+1.5) over Tampa Bay

The Cardinals played poorly across the board last week, but particularly in pass defense – Arizona allowed 9.6 yppp to Philadelphia. However, the Cardinals defense is still top 10 in my metrics and have been unfortunate to allow opponents to score touchdowns on 60% of Redzone opportunities, which is far too high for a unit that good overall.

Arizona signed Adrian Peterson attempting to improve their last rated rushing offense. I don’t think Peterson has much left in the tank and he’ll likely struggle against a Buccaneers defense ranked 5th at stopping the run in my numbers. Still, the threat of Peterson could help Carson Palmer get back on track and improve on a passing offense currently ranks 29th. Thankfully, Palmer has a favorable matchup this week against Tampa Bay’s 29th ranked pass defense.

My ratings like Arizona in this game, as they are better than their 2-3 record and it appears as if their dreadful 0-5 ATS record has supplied some line value. That’s pretty common for teams that are winless against the spread at this point of the season. In fact, in the last 25 years teams that are winless against the spread after 4 or more games are 45-19-2 ATS as an underdog or pick. That angle didn’t work for the Cardinals last week at Philly (although it did work for the Chargers), but there is value on their side and I’ll lean with the Cardinals plus the points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Buccaneers
  • Cardinals
TB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.3 42.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 50.8% 55.1%
  • Sack Rate 4.4% 2.3%
  • Int Rate 1.9% 1.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 25.6% 17.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 30.7% 24.9%
  • NYPP 7.1 7.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 22.8 26.8
  • RB YPR 3.7 3.0
  • Stuff Rate 15.4% 25.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.5% 36.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 29.3% 27.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.2




Game

  • All Snaps 63.0 69.5
  • Early Down Succ 53.2% 50.1%
  • Succ Rate 48.5% 48.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 31.4% 25.9%
  • Yards Per Play 6.0 5.7
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.1 28.0
  • Run Ratio 34.9% 38.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.3 27.4
  • Game Control 1.4 -1.4
 
  • Points 21.3 20.8
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