Game Analysis
Lean – ARIZONA (+1.5) over Tampa Bay
The Cardinals played poorly across the board last week, but particularly in pass defense – Arizona allowed 9.6 yppp to Philadelphia. However, the Cardinals defense is still top 10 in my metrics and have been unfortunate to allow opponents to score touchdowns on 60% of Redzone opportunities, which is far too high for a unit that good overall.
Arizona signed Adrian Peterson attempting to improve their last rated rushing offense. I don’t think Peterson has much left in the tank and he’ll likely struggle against a Buccaneers defense ranked 5th at stopping the run in my numbers. Still, the threat of Peterson could help Carson Palmer get back on track and improve on a passing offense currently ranks 29th. Thankfully, Palmer has a favorable matchup this week against Tampa Bay’s 29th ranked pass defense.
My ratings like Arizona in this game, as they are better than their 2-3 record and it appears as if their dreadful 0-5 ATS record has supplied some line value. That’s pretty common for teams that are winless against the spread at this point of the season. In fact, in the last 25 years teams that are winless against the spread after 4 or more games are 45-19-2 ATS as an underdog or pick. That angle didn’t work for the Cardinals last week at Philly (although it did work for the Chargers), but there is value on their side and I’ll lean with the Cardinals plus the points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.3
42.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.8%
55.1%
-
Sack Rate
4.4%
2.3%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
25.6%
17.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
30.7%
24.9%
-
NYPP
7.1
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.8
26.8
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.0
-
Stuff Rate
15.4%
25.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.5%
36.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
29.3%
27.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
3.2
Game
-
All Snaps
63.0
69.5
-
Early Down Succ
53.2%
50.1%
-
Succ Rate
48.5%
48.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
31.4%
25.9%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.1
28.0
-
Run Ratio
34.9%
38.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.3
27.4
-
Game Control
1.4
-1.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
49.2
37.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.4%
42.1%
-
Sack Rate
7.6%
5.3%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.9%
17.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.5%
34.9%
-
NYPP
6.0
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
20.4
29.2
-
RB YPR
2.5
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
25.5%
25.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
33.5%
33.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
21.5%
43.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
2.5
3.3
Game
-
All Snaps
69.6
66.2
-
Early Down Succ
41.1%
37.8%
-
Succ Rate
40.0%
37.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.5%
37.4%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.0
29.2
-
Run Ratio
29.3%
45.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.4
29.4
-
Game Control
-4.2
4.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
2 |
CHI |
29 – 7 W |
18.1 |
48.5% / 56.5% |
6.1% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 4.4% |
5.9 / 6.3 |
36.1% / 25.0% |
11.1% / 43.8% |
3.3 / 1.3 |
69 / 62 |
41.2% / 50.0% |
42.0% / 48.4% |
14.4% / 6.5% |
4.5 / 5.0 |
1.4% / 3.2% |
52.2% / 25.8% |
31.1 / 27.0 |
3 |
@MIN |
17 – 34 L |
-13.1 |
57.1% / 63.6% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 11.2 |
44.4% / 37.5% |
11.1% / 12.5% |
2.9 / 3.2 |
51 / 73 |
60.0% / 52.7% |
54.9% / 49.3% |
16.7% / 45.3% |
6.7 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
17.6% / 54.8% |
24.8 / 27.3 |
4 |
NYG |
25 – 23 W |
5.2 |
48.7% / 49.0% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 5.9 |
42.3% / 35.7% |
19.2% / 28.6% |
4.3 / 3.3 |
65 / 77 |
56.3% / 44.1% |
46.2% / 44.2% |
57.3% / 27.4% |
6.7 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 36.4% |
29.9 / 27.7 |
5 |
NE |
14 – 19 L |
-4.4 |
48.9% / 51.2% |
4.3% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
6.8 / 6.7 |
55.0% / 47.8% |
20.0% / 17.4% |
4.5 / 4.9 |
67 / 66 |
55.6% / 53.7% |
50.7% / 50.0% |
37.2% / 24.6% |
6.1 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
29.9% / 34.8% |
27.4 / 27.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DET |
23 – 35 L |
2.7 |
42.9% / 47.6% |
2.0% / 2.4% |
6.3% / 2.4% |
5.4 / 6.8 |
38.9% / 35.7% |
16.7% / 21.4% |
2.5 / 3.0 |
67 / 70 |
41.2% / 42.3% |
41.8% / 42.9% |
29.4% / 27.4% |
4.6 / 5.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
26.9% / 40.0% |
28.5 / 36.6 |
2 |
@IND |
16 – 13 W |
-6.3 |
40.0% / 41.5% |
10.0% / 9.8% |
2.8% / 2.7% |
7.7 / 4.6 |
34.6% / 34.5% |
11.5% / 24.1% |
3.2 / 2.6 |
66 / 70 |
39.6% / 36.5% |
37.9% / 38.6% |
63.6% / 16.5% |
5.9 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.4% / 41.4% |
29.6 / 24.5 |
3 |
DAL |
17 – 28 L |
0.5 |
38.9% / 42.1% |
11.1% / 5.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 9.2 |
33.3% / 33.3% |
33.3% / 33.3% |
2.3 / 3.7 |
75 / 46 |
35.7% / 42.9% |
37.3% / 37.0% |
51.5% / 62.8% |
4.4 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.0% / 58.7% |
21.6 / 29.4 |
4 |
SF |
18 – 15 W |
-1.4 |
49.1% / 30.8% |
10.5% / 5.8% |
2.0% / 2.0% |
5.6 / 4.0 |
39.1% / 37.0% |
30.4% / 25.9% |
2.3 / 3.5 |
80 / 79 |
51.6% / 33.9% |
46.3% / 32.9% |
17.9% / 27.9% |
4.6 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.8% / 34.2% |
27.9 / 22.3 |
5 |
@PHI |
7 – 34 L |
-16.7 |
41.3% / 48.4% |
4.3% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 3.3% |
6.0 / 9.6 |
21.4% / 28.6% |
35.7% / 22.9% |
2.2 / 3.5 |
60 / 66 |
37.2% / 33.3% |
36.7% / 37.9% |
20.2% / 52.3% |
5.1 / 6.4 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
23.3% / 53.0% |
19.3 / 34.1 |