Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – ARIZONA (+1.5) over Tampa Bay

The Cardinals played poorly across the board last week, but particularly in pass defense – Arizona allowed 9.6 yppp to Philadelphia. However, the Cardinals defense is still top 10 in my metrics and have been unfortunate to allow opponents to score touchdowns on 60% of Redzone opportunities, which is far too high for a unit that good overall.

Arizona signed Adrian Peterson attempting to improve their last rated rushing offense. I don’t think Peterson has much left in the tank and he’ll likely struggle against a Buccaneers defense ranked 5^th at stopping the run in my numbers. Still, the threat of Peterson could help Carson Palmer get back on track and improve on a passing offense currently ranks 29^th. Thankfully, Palmer has a favorable matchup this week against Tampa Bay’s 29^th ranked pass defense.

My ratings like Arizona in this game, as they are better than their 2-3 record and it appears as if their dreadful 0-5 ATS record has supplied some line value. That’s pretty common for teams that are winless against the spread at this point of the season. In fact, in the last 25 years teams that are winless against the spread after 4 or more games are 45-19-2 ATS as an underdog or pick. That angle didn’t work for the Cardinals last week at Philly (although it did work for the Chargers), but there is value on their side and I’ll lean with the Cardinals plus the points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Buccaneers
Cardinals

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.3 42.8
Succ Pass Plays 50.8% 55.1%
Sack Rate 4.4% 2.3%
Int Rate 1.9% 1.7%
Deep Pass Rate 25.6% 17.1%
Big Pass Yards 30.7% 24.9%
NYPP 7.1 7.5

Rush

Rush Plays 22.8 26.8
RB YPR 3.7 3.0
Stuff Rate 15.4% 25.6%
Succ Rush Plays 44.5% 36.5%
Big Rush Yards 29.3% 27.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.2

Game

All Snaps 63.0 69.5
Early Down Succ 53.2% 50.1%
Succ Rate 48.5% 48.0%
Big Yards Rate 31.4% 25.9%
Yards Per Play 6.0 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.1 28.0
Run Ratio 34.9% 38.0%
Starting Field Pos 28.3 27.4
Game Control 1.4 -1.4

Points 21.3 20.8

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
2	CHI	29 – 7 W	18.1	48.5% / 56.5%	6.1% / 2.2%	0.0% / 4.4%	5.9 / 6.3	36.1% / 25.0%	11.1% / 43.8%	3.3 / 1.3	69 / 62	41.2% / 50.0%	42.0% / 48.4%	14.4% / 6.5%	4.5 / 5.0	1.4% / 3.2%	52.2% / 25.8%	31.1 / 27.0
3	@MIN	17 – 34 L	-13.1	57.1% / 63.6%	4.8% / 0.0%	7.5% / 0.0%	7.5 / 11.2	44.4% / 37.5%	11.1% / 12.5%	2.9 / 3.2	51 / 73	60.0% / 52.7%	54.9% / 49.3%	16.7% / 45.3%	6.7 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	17.6% / 54.8%	24.8 / 27.3
4	NYG	25 – 23 W	5.2	48.7% / 49.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.3 / 5.9	42.3% / 35.7%	19.2% / 28.6%	4.3 / 3.3	65 / 77	56.3% / 44.1%	46.2% / 44.2%	57.3% / 27.4%	6.7 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	40.0% / 36.4%	29.9 / 27.7
5	NE	14 – 19 L	-4.4	48.9% / 51.2%	4.3% / 7.0%	0.0% / 2.5%	6.8 / 6.7	55.0% / 47.8%	20.0% / 17.4%	4.5 / 4.9	67 / 66	55.6% / 53.7%	50.7% / 50.0%	37.2% / 24.6%	6.1 / 6.1	0.0% / 1.5%	29.9% / 34.8%	27.4 / 27.7

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DET	23 – 35 L	2.7	42.9% / 47.6%	2.0% / 2.4%	6.3% / 2.4%	5.4 / 6.8	38.9% / 35.7%	16.7% / 21.4%	2.5 / 3.0	67 / 70	41.2% / 42.3%	41.8% / 42.9%	29.4% / 27.4%	4.6 / 5.3	1.5% / 0.0%	26.9% / 40.0%	28.5 / 36.6
2	@IND	16 – 13 W	-6.3	40.0% / 41.5%	10.0% / 9.8%	2.8% / 2.7%	7.7 / 4.6	34.6% / 34.5%	11.5% / 24.1%	3.2 / 2.6	66 / 70	39.6% / 36.5%	37.9% / 38.6%	63.6% / 16.5%	5.9 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.4% / 41.4%	29.6 / 24.5
3	DAL	17 – 28 L	0.5	38.9% / 42.1%	11.1% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.2 / 9.2	33.3% / 33.3%	33.3% / 33.3%	2.3 / 3.7	75 / 46	35.7% / 42.9%	37.3% / 37.0%	51.5% / 62.8%	4.4 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	28.0% / 58.7%	21.6 / 29.4
4	SF	18 – 15 W	-1.4	49.1% / 30.8%	10.5% / 5.8%	2.0% / 2.0%	5.6 / 4.0	39.1% / 37.0%	30.4% / 25.9%	2.3 / 3.5	80 / 79	51.6% / 33.9%	46.3% / 32.9%	17.9% / 27.9%	4.6 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	28.8% / 34.2%	27.9 / 22.3
5	@PHI	7 – 34 L	-16.7	41.3% / 48.4%	4.3% / 3.2%	0.0% / 3.3%	6.0 / 9.6	21.4% / 28.6%	35.7% / 22.9%	2.2 / 3.5	60 / 66	37.2% / 33.3%	36.7% / 37.9%	20.2% / 52.3%	5.1 / 6.4	1.7% / 0.0%	23.3% / 53.0%	19.3 / 34.1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @

Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Oct 15

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis