Game Analysis

Note: The total has dropped to 48.5 but the Under is still a 2-Star Best Bet.

2-Star Best Bet – **Under (49.5) – Seattle (-1.5) vs SAN FRANCISCO

• San Francisco’s total closed 51.5 last Sunday night, and this game should unquestionably be much lower.
• The betting market implied power rating on the Bears and Seahawks offenses is roughly the same. Both offenses have a 46% success rate this year.
• The betting market implied power rating made Seattle’s defense 4.5 points better than Chicago’s defense heading into last week. The Seahawks are conceding only 4.6 yppl (2nd) while the Bears are allowing 6.0 yppl (29th).
• A late-season division game with wind and rain projects scoring conditions to be about 5 points lower than they were with pristine conditions for CHI-SF last week.
• The 49ers offense needs to be upgraded, and the defense downgraded after the shootout last week, but it doesn’t nearly offset the 9.5 points we’ve accounted for.
• San Francisco TE George Kittle will likely suit up on Saturday night, but LT Trent Williams is likely sidelined. The 49ers have averaged 0.12 EPA/play more and 0.4 yppl more with Williams on the field over the last four seasons. Kittle being in and Williams being out cancel each other out.
• Seattle’s offense will also likely be without their starting left tackle, Charles Cross, and backup Josh Jones is banged up and not practicing. I expect Jones to be on the field for this game, but he is a downgrade of a half point. Cross is allowing a 6.9% pressure rate on True Pass Sets while Jones is surrendering a 10% pressure rate on passing blocking snaps, excluding plays with less than 4 rushers, play action, screens, short dropbacks, and time-to-throws under 2 seconds.
• Both San Francisco and Seattle are locked into the playoffs, but the winner of this game will get the bye.
• Our model favors the Seahawks by 2.6 points, with a predicted total of 45.1 points.

The Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 48 points or more and 1-Star down to 47 points.