Game Analysis

Seattle is locked in as a 2-Star Best Bet at +12 (which is the number it was released at before Smith’s injury), but for those that haven’t played it you can consider the Seahawks a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 or more and 1-Star down to +13.

2-Star Best Bet – **Seattle (+12) over SAN FRANCISCO

· Seahawks QB Geno Smith stumbled over a teammate in practice and injured his groin but the market has overreacted to that injury, as backup Drew Lock’s career yards per pass play average of 6.1 yppp isn’t much worse than Smith’s 6.3 yppp average this season. Lock does have a higher interception rate but his EPA/play, which takes everything into account, makes him only 1.2 points worse than Smith.

· San Francisco edge defender Nick Bosa had 9 pressures against the Seahawks two weeks ago, but he will be limited by Lucas. Seahawks LT Charles Cross has improved in his second season, conceding a 7.2% pressure rate compared to allowing an 8.1% pressure rate as a rookie, and I expect similar development from Lucas, who conceded a 4.7% pressure rate as a rookie.

· Smith will also negate the 49ers pass rush by getting the ball out quickly. Smith adjusted after the game on Thanksgiving, and he had his fastest average time to throw of the season at 2.42 seconds versus Dallas last week, with the offense scoring 35 points.

· Brock Purdy will be under more pressure than normal this week. Seattle edge defender Boye Mafe ranks 19th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will go against RT Colton McKivitz, who has surrendered 6 sacks (6th-most).

· San Francisco RG Spencer Burford ranks last in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will struggle versus interior defender Leonard Williams, who has 39 pressures (13th).

· Seahawks CB Tariq Woolen is conceding 0.81 yards per cover snap (15th) and he will battle when lined up across from WR Brandon Aiyuk, who is averaging 3.01 yards per route run (2nd).

· Seattle NT Jarran Reed was also injured in practice this week and his 34 pressures ranks 2nd among nose tackles in the NFL and he is worth 0.4 points to Seattle’s defense if he can’t play (I’ll assume he’s out, although he’s been listed as questionable).

· Our model favors the 49ers by just 8.9 points, with a predicted total of 45.4 points, and Seattle is now 21-5-1 ATS under coach Pete Carroll after 2 or more losses (covered last week in the loss at Dallas). With all other factors we look at included, the fair line on this game with Lock at quarterback for Seattle is SF by 10.3 points, so there is significant value on the Seahawks.

Seattle is locked in as a 2-Star Best Bet at +12 (which is the number it was released at before Smith’s injury), but for those that haven’t played it you can consider the Seahawks a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 or more and 1-Star down to +13.