Game Analysis
Lean – SAN FRANCISCO (+6.5) over Seattle
The Russell Wilson division/non-division scrambling trend continued last week rushing for 86 yards on 7 attempts against the Falcons. Wilson has now gained more than 5 yards per rush in every game this season except for the 3 divisional games and a loss to the Titans. Divisional opponents have used familiarity to stifle Wilson’s scrambling ability gaining 1 ypr worse against NFC West opponents compared to his career average. In three divisional games this season, the Seahawks offense has averaged just 3.7 yards per play.
C.J. Beathard is coming off the best game of his career by far in the Niners win over the Giants before the bye week throwing for 11.5 yards per pass play. This week Beathard will go against an injured Seattle secondary without Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman, both out for the year. I lean on the side of last game being an outlier performance for Beathard but if he continues to play well, we might not see Jimmy Garappolo under center this season after all.
The Niners’ defense did a great job in Seattle earlier this season in a 9-12 loss and I’ll lean with the bad team as a home underdog off their bye week, which is traditionally a good situation. In fact, teams with a win percentage of less than .400 are 30-6 ATS as home underdogs of more than 5 points following their bye week if their opponent is not also off a bye. That’s certainly good enough for me to lean with San Francisco plus the points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.1
37.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.5%
40.0%
-
Sack Rate
6.9%
7.0%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
24.2%
24.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.6%
35.3%
-
NYPP
6.6
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.2
26.3
-
RB YPR
2.9
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
28.0%
25.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.9%
41.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.1%
34.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
67.3
63.8
-
Early Down Succ
46.2%
41.7%
-
Succ Rate
43.9%
40.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.0%
38.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
27.6
-
Run Ratio
40.2%
41.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.5
27.1
-
Game Control
-0.5
0.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.3
35.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
38.8%
48.8%
-
Sack Rate
7.3%
4.7%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.7%
19.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.6%
39.4%
-
NYPP
5.5
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.5
35.8
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
26.4%
23.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.6%
43.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
51.1%
44.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
65.8
71.7
-
Early Down Succ
43.7%
48.8%
-
Succ Rate
41.0%
46.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.7%
41.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.1
29.0
-
Run Ratio
36.0%
50.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.0
30.1
-
Game Control
-6.6
6.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@GB |
9 – 17 L |
-2.5 |
40.0% / 50.0% |
10.0% / 8.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
4.5 / 6.2 |
38.9% / 35.5% |
50.0% / 19.4% |
5.0 / 2.8 |
48 / 77 |
44.4% / 44.6% |
39.6% / 44.2% |
58.7% / 37.8% |
4.7 / 4.8 |
2.1% / 0.0% |
37.5% / 40.3% |
27.5 / 25.9 |
2 |
SF |
12 – 9 W |
2.0 |
33.3% / 20.7% |
7.1% / 6.9% |
0.0% / 3.7% |
4.3 / 3.1 |
37.2% / 52.6% |
20.9% / 21.1% |
3.1 / 8.4 |
85 / 48 |
37.5% / 38.9% |
35.3% / 33.3% |
23.7% / 49.2% |
3.7 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.6% / 39.6% |
23.9 / 24.5 |
3 |
@TEN |
27 – 33 L |
-4.9 |
50.0% / 51.6% |
2.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 7.3 |
40.9% / 44.4% |
31.8% / 22.2% |
3.1 / 5.4 |
72 / 67 |
51.8% / 54.9% |
47.2% / 47.8% |
38.8% / 44.9% |
6.0 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.6% / 53.7% |
23.3 / 29.6 |
4 |
IND |
46 – 18 W |
7.0 |
65.5% / 37.5% |
10.3% / 9.4% |
7.7% / 3.4% |
9.8 / 4.3 |
42.4% / 52.0% |
24.2% / 8.0% |
5.9 / 3.9 |
62 / 57 |
47.8% / 44.2% |
53.2% / 43.9% |
67.7% / 30.0% |
7.7 / 4.2 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
53.2% / 43.9% |
20.2 / 28.3 |
5 |
@LA |
16 – 10 W |
-0.8 |
45.0% / 35.4% |
7.5% / 4.2% |
5.4% / 4.3% |
4.5 / 5.7 |
19.2% / 40.9% |
23.1% / 45.5% |
2.4 / 4.5 |
66 / 70 |
31.3% / 33.3% |
34.8% / 37.1% |
8.7% / 44.3% |
3.7 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 4.3% |
39.4% / 31.4% |
35.2 / 29.2 |
7 |
@NYG |
24 – 7 W |
1.0 |
50.0% / 22.5% |
2.5% / 2.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.0 / 3.3 |
50.0% / 41.2% |
21.9% / 17.6% |
3.3 / 2.7 |
72 / 57 |
53.6% / 31.8% |
50.0% / 28.1% |
43.9% / 14.1% |
5.9 / 3.1 |
1.4% / 1.8% |
44.4% / 29.8% |
33.8 / 22.8 |
8 |
HOU |
41 – 38 W |
-1.4 |
51.2% / 45.7% |
4.7% / 14.3% |
2.4% / 10.0% |
10.4 / 10.5 |
17.4% / 50.0% |
39.1% / 17.6% |
1.5 / 4.2 |
66 / 69 |
44.0% / 51.7% |
39.4% / 47.8% |
62.4% / 72.7% |
7.3 / 7.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.8% / 49.3% |
27.4 / 22.4 |
9 |
WAS |
14 – 17 L |
-2.3 |
43.5% / 40.5% |
4.3% / 16.2% |
4.5% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 5.2 |
57.1% / 39.1% |
14.3% / 34.8% |
5.3 / 2.2 |
74 / 60 |
51.7% / 42.6% |
48.6% / 40.0% |
48.5% / 51.6% |
5.9 / 4.1 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
37.8% / 38.3% |
30.7 / 27.8 |
10 |
@ARI |
22 – 16 W |
5.5 |
47.2% / 42.9% |
13.9% / 4.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 5.2 |
20.8% / 20.8% |
33.3% / 41.7% |
3.2 / 1.4 |
60 / 73 |
42.2% / 34.5% |
36.7% / 35.6% |
51.0% / 6.9% |
4.8 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
40.0% / 32.9% |
27.1 / 27.7 |
11 |
ATL |
31 – 34 L |
-8.5 |
48.9% / 53.6% |
6.7% / 3.6% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 6.8 |
65.2% / 34.4% |
21.7% / 21.9% |
5.9 / 2.8 |
68 / 60 |
57.4% / 40.5% |
54.4% / 43.3% |
46.7% / 37.7% |
5.3 / 4.7 |
1.5% / 1.7% |
33.8% / 53.3% |
36.4 / 33.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
CAR |
3 – 23 L |
-12.4 |
46.2% / 45.8% |
10.3% / 0.0% |
2.9% / 4.2% |
4.3 / 7.1 |
26.7% / 39.0% |
26.7% / 14.6% |
3.4 / 2.9 |
54 / 65 |
48.7% / 42.6% |
40.7% / 41.5% |
33.6% / 29.7% |
4.0 / 4.5 |
1.9% / 1.5% |
27.8% / 63.1% |
30.1 / 33.7 |
2 |
@SEA |
9 – 12 L |
-2.0 |
20.7% / 33.3% |
6.9% / 7.1% |
3.7% / 0.0% |
3.1 / 4.3 |
52.6% / 37.2% |
21.1% / 20.9% |
8.4 / 3.1 |
48 / 85 |
38.9% / 37.5% |
33.3% / 35.3% |
49.2% / 23.7% |
5.2 / 3.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.6% / 50.6% |
24.5 / 23.9 |
3 |
LA |
39 – 41 L |
-8.5 |
46.3% / 64.3% |
9.8% / 0.0% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 10.4 |
51.5% / 51.5% |
27.3% / 30.3% |
3.4 / 3.8 |
74 / 61 |
47.2% / 57.4% |
48.6% / 57.4% |
50.8% / 55.4% |
5.7 / 6.9 |
1.4% / 3.3% |
44.6% / 54.1% |
36.1 / 36.1 |
4 |
@ARI |
15 – 18 L |
1.4 |
30.8% / 49.1% |
5.8% / 10.5% |
2.0% / 2.0% |
4.0 / 5.6 |
37.0% / 39.1% |
25.9% / 30.4% |
3.5 / 2.3 |
79 / 80 |
33.9% / 51.6% |
32.9% / 46.3% |
27.9% / 17.9% |
3.9 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.2% / 28.8% |
22.3 / 27.9 |
5 |
@IND |
23 – 26 L |
-3.3 |
50.0% / 44.7% |
4.2% / 10.5% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
7.0 / 7.6 |
31.8% / 32.4% |
31.8% / 32.4% |
3.0 / 4.4 |
70 / 75 |
46.3% / 38.2% |
44.3% / 38.7% |
37.3% / 58.1% |
5.7 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.4% / 49.3% |
17.5 / 28.8 |
6 |
@WAS |
24 – 26 L |
-7.0 |
30.0% / 60.5% |
6.0% / 2.6% |
2.1% / 2.7% |
5.0 / 8.6 |
65.0% / 38.2% |
25.0% / 29.4% |
4.3 / 2.8 |
70 / 72 |
41.2% / 51.8% |
40.0% / 50.0% |
50.4% / 43.6% |
4.8 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
28.6% / 47.2% |
32.6 / 26.9 |
7 |
DAL |
10 – 40 L |
-20.1 |
39.5% / 51.9% |
11.6% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.3 / 8.7 |
59.1% / 68.9% |
27.3% / 11.1% |
4.7 / 5.9 |
65 / 72 |
48.0% / 66.7% |
46.2% / 62.5% |
40.7% / 57.0% |
4.5 / 7.0 |
4.6% / 0.0% |
33.8% / 62.5% |
23.0 / 34.1 |
8 |
@PHI |
10 – 33 L |
-11.9 |
32.5% / 42.9% |
10.0% / 8.6% |
5.6% / 3.1% |
3.6 / 5.5 |
41.7% / 39.4% |
41.7% / 27.3% |
3.9 / 3.5 |
64 / 68 |
40.8% / 46.9% |
35.9% / 41.2% |
38.2% / 44.4% |
3.7 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.5% / 48.5% |
28.5 / 29.0 |
9 |
ARI |
10 – 20 L |
-7.3 |
32.1% / 40.0% |
8.9% / 0.0% |
2.0% / 3.3% |
4.8 / 6.7 |
58.8% / 34.8% |
17.6% / 13.0% |
3.7 / 3.7 |
73 / 76 |
40.7% / 38.9% |
38.4% / 36.8% |
30.7% / 45.8% |
4.5 / 4.9 |
1.4% / 1.3% |
23.3% / 60.5% |
23.5 / 34.4 |
10 |
NYG |
31 – 21 W |
4.9 |
60.0% / 55.0% |
0.0% / 7.5% |
4.0% / 0.0% |
11.5 / 6.5 |
41.7% / 52.2% |
19.4% / 21.7% |
5.3 / 5.0 |
61 / 63 |
51.2% / 56.5% |
49.2% / 54.0% |
67.7% / 35.6% |
7.8 / 5.9 |
1.6% / 1.6% |
59.0% / 36.5% |
31.9 / 26.6 |