Seattle Seahawks @

San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Nov 26
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 265
Odds: San Francisco 49ers +6.5, Total: 45

Game Analysis

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Lean – SAN FRANCISCO (+6.5) over Seattle

The Russell Wilson division/non-division scrambling trend continued last week rushing for 86 yards on 7 attempts against the Falcons. Wilson has now gained more than 5 yards per rush in every game this season except for the 3 divisional games and a loss to the Titans. Divisional opponents have used familiarity to stifle Wilson’s scrambling ability gaining 1 ypr worse against NFC West opponents compared to his career average. In three divisional games this season, the Seahawks offense has averaged just 3.7 yards per play.

C.J. Beathard is coming off the best game of his career by far in the Niners win over the Giants before the bye week throwing for 11.5 yards per pass play. This week Beathard will go against an injured Seattle secondary without Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman, both out for the year. I lean on the side of last game being an outlier performance for Beathard but if he continues to play well, we might not see Jimmy Garappolo under center this season after all.

The Niners’ defense did a great job in Seattle earlier this season in a 9-12 loss and I’ll lean with the bad team as a home underdog off their bye week, which is traditionally a good situation. In fact, teams with a win percentage of less than .400 are 30-6 ATS as home underdogs of more than 5 points following their bye week if their opponent is not also off a bye. That’s certainly good enough for me to lean with San Francisco plus the points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Seahawks
  • 49ers
SEA
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.1 37.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.5% 40.0%
  • Sack Rate 6.9% 7.0%
  • Int Rate 2.2% 2.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 24.2% 24.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.6% 35.3%
  • NYPP 6.6 5.8



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.2 26.3
  • RB YPR 2.9 3.5
  • Stuff Rate 28.0% 25.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 38.9% 41.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 50.1% 34.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.8




Game

  • All Snaps 67.3 63.8
  • Early Down Succ 46.2% 41.7%
  • Succ Rate 43.9% 40.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 45.0% 38.9%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 4.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.5 27.6
  • Run Ratio 40.2% 41.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.5 27.1
  • Game Control -0.5 0.5
 
  • Points 24.2 19.9
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