Seattle Seahawks @

Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun, Sep 15
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 275
Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers -4, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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PITTSBURGH (-4) vs Seattle

Pittsburgh’s defense was manhandled on Sunday night, conceding 6.9 yards per play, and the lack of talent for the unit this year was on display in New England. It’s going to get worse with Joe Haden out with a sprained shoulder, as the cornerback is worth 0.8 points by our metrics. DK Metcalf is prime to exploit a Steelers secondary without Haden after the rookie wide receiver gained 4.05 yards per route run in his NFL debut. However, I expect Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to run the ball as much as possible regardless of matchup – per usual. Russell Wilson should have more success running the ball this week after being held to just 8 rushing yards in the opener.

Pittsburgh’s offense was poor in week 1 with the Patriots taking away Juju Smith-Schuster, but the young wide receiver should bounce back this week provided his toe is alright. The Steelers play calling was actually pretty solid, ranking 11th in situational adjusted pass rate and 7th in air yards per attempt. The offensive line held steady and didn’t surrender a sack and I expect Ben Roethlisberger to get back on track on Sunday as Seattle’s secondary is a far cry from New England’s top notch unit.

I’m not panicking with Pittsburgh yet and neither is the market considering the look-ahead line for this game was Steelers -4.5. Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS after losing by 20+ in the Ben Roethlisberger era and 31-10-1 ATS going back further. Our model favors the Steelers by 2.8 with a predicted total of 49.7 but I think 4 is probably a fair number given Pittsburgh’s tendency to bounce-back from bad games.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Seahawks
  • Steelers
SEA
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 31.5 45.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.0% 44.6%
  • Sack Rate 13.5% 5.9%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 1.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.5% 16.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 49.1% 38.2%
  • NYPP 6.9 6.1



Rush


  • Rush Plays 29.0 15.0
  • RB YPR 3.5 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 26.1% 30.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 40.7% 38.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 54.8% 39.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.7 3.7




Game

  • All Snaps 60.5 60.5
  • Early Down Succ 47.7% 47.5%
  • Succ Rate 44.1% 44.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 51.7% 40.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.3 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 2.4% 2.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.7 29.5
  • Run Ratio 48.4% 25.7%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.3 31.1
  • Game Control -0.0 0.0
 
  • Points 24.5 23.0
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